It's the Sun, Stupid.

Piers Corbyn studies the Sun and predicts weather correctly.
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Hello Walter I was reading an article by him the other day.

To make an honest judgement I'll have to wait for the youtube debunker teams. (bear's laffing guy here)

It's aliens.......

Oh yippy, an excellent retort, complete with all manner of intelligent fact and documented support.

What???? No youtube? WTF?

Avro's still waiting for Penn and Teller to put it out there.

I'd like to shoot them. The skinny one first and I'd use a silencer. Poet justice. I hate mimes.

It would be hard to solicit donations using hard data. Doesn't sell much print either. Much better to use BS in large print. On the bright side Gore and Suzuki have helped keep oil prices up by jetting around the world preaching gloom and doom.

Large print...I see you're familiar with Walt's work.

This article is more BS, and it takes more time to address all the nonsense that passes as science in the denial echo chamber than it does to throw together a poor piece of BS. Just look at the sea level for instance. The IPCC doesn't make projections for 1995-2010, they make century long projections, multiple projections, for very specific scenarios. If one variable changes when you project something, the projection really isn't useful any longer...hence they make multiple projections for multiple scenarios of what the future reality might be.

And sea level rise looks like this:


Obviously it's a non-linear growth curve....

And what does it look like with the range of IPCC scenarios? Something like this:

That's all we needed.....




Another global warming thread.....complete with Charts, Graphs and Cartoons.....

Some smart-ass shut down the scam thread so I started a new one.

Actualy.....there might be more Obama threads than Global warming threads

Wait a minute. The sun causes global warming? What a stunning scientific discovery. The next thing American Thinker will be declaring is that rain makes the ground wet and snow is cold. And CO2 has nothing to do with increased global warming? Too bad we can't interview a few Venusians about that.

I don't think Corbyn's proven his case. He doesn't reveal his methods so no other scientist can offer an assessment of them, the Wikipedia piece about him records times when he's been wrong about major weather events, he makes predictions a year in advance and modifies them as time goes by so whatever happens he'll probably be able to point to a time when he said it would, and I couldn't find an analysis of his predictions versus what actually happened. The only things I could find were so hedged about with caveats and conditional clauses I couldn't conclude anything from them but the obvious, sometimes he's right and sometimes he's wrong, like any forecaster. And a subject line like "It's the sun, stupid" is not conducive to reasoned debate, credibility takes a hit right off the top.

I want to hear more about extraterrestrials causing our problems. Could it be other planets
passing by, or is it the little people in space ships? We all know about the little people in
spaceships, they came about because there were too many on earth dancing on the lawns.
If it is extraterrestrials I will have to buy a tin foil hat and I always have a problem finding one
that fits. Oh yes I like to have one around in case I have to listen to Gore or Suzuki for that
matter.
What a load of crap. We all know that cows cause global warming don't we?
I believe the weather is what it is and it changes we have had the tropics in the Arctic and
Ice ages that covered the Okanagan. We can ban fires, we can insist there is no dust.
We can stop traffic from running up and down the freeway and all ride bikes, but we cannot
be so arrogant as to suggest we can gain control over the weather. Oh I am not saying we
should do nothing to ensure we don't damage our life surroundings, but for heaven sake it
is not the nature of man to live like hermits in caves.
Things have got out of control because we need to have a problem, not a solution.
What do I mean. we thought the world was coming to an end because the spotted owl was
in danger, then we went on a campaign to save all the whales. It came to a grand conclusion
with saving all the old growth forests that were consumed by forest fires and Pine Beatles.
I think people who go about scaring everyone with dooms day predictions about the weather
should be made to bob for French Fries. Picture that.

You should read Michael Crichton's, State of Fear.

I am running pictures of Al Gore doing a happy dance in my head woo hoo

Well actually not today - I think Mr. Gore is out shovelling snow from his walk and driveway.

Not unless it snowed in Nashville or Washington, D.C., where Mr. Gore maintains his principle residences.

More about the guy whose gewtting the weather right.
Monty Python’s And Now for Something Completely Meterological | Full Comment | National Post

And yet we are having unusually warm weather here in BC and have been for weeks.

Again, another old crank who has not spent his life studying climate, makes ridiculous claims, without attribution to physical principles, and most importantly without any semblance of actual analysis, and the so-called skeptics hop up and down like seals thrown a bit of chum.

It's hilarious to see the contrarians uncritically accepting model results, and how does he actually stack up?

Forecasts for 2008

At the end of 2007, WeatherAction predicted that temperatures in January could plummet to -17 °C in the Midlands, and that the average temperature for January would be close to freezing. --. After the January prediction proved false, Mr. Corbyn blamed the incorrect forecast on an undefined 'procedural error,' but insisted that the second half of the month, specifically the period of 21–27 January, would be very cold, stating on his website:

""The period and forecast maps for the very cold ‘dipole’ patterns 15-21st Jan will probably be shifted later to 21st- 23rd Jan. Some exceptionally strong blizzard conditiuons (sic) and very strong cold winds are likely in this period. An ongoing similar situation with widespread heavy snow, strong winds and blizzards will continue 24th- 27th Jan."

--. The Met Office run Hadley Observation Centre had the -- from the 1–22 January running at 6.4 °C, or 2.8 °C above normal for the time of year. This made it highly unlikely that Corbyn's very cold January forecast would come to fruition.


The final CET for January 2008 ended up over 3 °C above the standard reference average making the predictions for a cold Jan very poor. In fact it ended up being one of the warmest Januarys since records began.

His work has even been analyzed by peer review, and he hasn't been able, or willing, to show that his results are not spurious. In fact his model for gales has the lowest predictive power in winter, when gales are most frequent. He uses statistical models (nothing inherently wrong with that,) and makes assertions about what is causing the weather patterns, without even assessing if that is true. There is lots wrong with that.

It's a pain in the ass when he's right so often.

How often do his predictions materialize? 49%, 50%, 51%? How often is often?

Or is this blind faith on the part of contrarians?

More often than Hansen, Gore, Skuzuki, et al.

Prove it.

Corbyn
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Hansen, Gore
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How Accurate was the 2010 Farmers’ Almanac?

by Caleb Weatherbee | Monday, August 23rd, 2010 | From: --

With the brand new 2011 Farmers’ Almanac landing in homes over the next few days, the suspense of wondering what we’re predicting for the coming winter will soon be over. That begs the question, though, of just how accurate the Farmers’ Almanac is.

Our standard response to that question is that readers who’ve tracked our predictions against actual weather outcomes estimate that our predictions are between 80% and 85% accurate. In fact, a poll conducted last summer by the Bangor Daily News found that more people trust the Farmers’ Almanac than the National WeatherService.

A similar poll done by AOL news determined that the Farmers’ Almanac and the NWS were trusted equally, and 82% of respondents said they trusted the Farmers’ Almanac either “somewhat” or “a lot.” And with good reason, too; last year, the NWS predicted that the winter of 2010-11 would be warmer than normal across the nation, while the Farmers’ Almanac, in contrast, warned that many areas would see very cold conditions and heavy snow.

It’s not often that the Farmers’ Almanac long range forecast calls for extreme events such as blizzards with two or more feet of accumulation, but that’s exactly what weather prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee saw when he consulted his data for the second week of February 2010. He was so confident, in fact, that he insisted we highlight it both in his general weather outlook and in the detailed forecast for February. As it happened, a major storm system, which has since come to be known as “Snowmageddon,” slammed Mid-Atlantic states during not one, but two blizzards over the course of a single week. The snow was so deep, it crippled whole cities, shutting down the federal government as well as cities, both large and small, in much of the Eastern half of the country. February 11-12 saw a remarkable southern snowstorm that buried cities in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia. Dallas-Fort Worth recorded 12.5-inches of snow, making it their greatest 24-hour snowfall on record. Though Farmers’ Almanac’s prediction was a couple of days off, thanks to this year’s strong El Niño, its certainty that a major blizzard would hit in early February was right on!

(Check out how we did with our Canadian weather predictions here.)
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Let's face it folks. Anyone who can accurately predict the weather even three months ahead could make a fortune. And I mean really predict. Not the sort of thing the Farmer's Almanac does, which is to take averages over several years and then take a guess based on those averages. Predicting heavier than usual snowfall after several years of less than average snowfall is not really the sort of accuracy that is needed.

I'm sure it is easier to predict the weather on the prairies than it is in the mountains of BC. On the prairies you can see it coming for days.