Copenhagen Diagnosis

[Tonington]

In the run-up to the meetings scheduled for December, a report has been produced by scientists which updates the material and findings since the cut-off date for the last IPCC report. That's three years worth of new findings.

Results:

• Ice sheet mass loss accelerating, contributing to sea level rise (uncertain during previous IPCC deliberations)
• Arctic ice decline is faster than projected
• Sea level rise is 80% higher than the 2001 projections
• Business as usual emissions mean in 20 years we will be against the wall, limiting temperature rise to 2°C unlikely.

And of course, even business as usual means grave trouble for ocean ecology, due to acidifcation. Previous similar increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are associated with mass oceanic extinctions.

 

[#juan]

In the run-up to the meetings scheduled for December, a report has been produced by scientists which updates the material and findings since the cut-off date for the last IPCC report. That's three years worth of new findings.

Results:

• Ice sheet mass loss accelerating, contributing to sea level rise (uncertain during previous IPCC deliberations)
• Arctic ice decline is faster than projected
• Sea level rise is 80% higher than the 2001 projections
• Business as usual emissions mean in 20 years we will be against the wall, limiting temperature rise to 2°C unlikely.

And of course, even business as usual means grave trouble for ocean ecology, due to acidifcation. Previous similar increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are associated with mass oceanic extinctions.

Ton, have you noticed that nobody wants to hear bad news. We get stupid topics calling global warming a scam and that the Sun is just temporarily putting out a bit more heat....Everything is going to be just fine....meanwhile, a whole run of Sockeye salmon has disappeared and Polar bears can't get to their food.

 

[AnnaG]

On a positive note, more and more companies are collecting carbon, though. And on the reverse side of the coin,

Efforts to control climate change require the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This can only be achieved through a drastic reduction of global CO2 emissions. Yet fossil fuel emissions increased by 29% between 2000 and 2008, in conjunction with increased contributions from emerging economies, from the production and international trade of goods and services, and from the use of coal as a fuel source. In contrast, emissions from land-use changes were nearly constant. Between 1959 and 2008, 43% of each year's CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere on average; the rest was absorbed by carbon sinks on land and in the oceans. In the past 50 years, the fraction of CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere each year has likely increased, from about 40% to 45%, and models suggest that this trend was caused by a decrease in the uptake of CO2 by the carbon sinks in response to climate change and variability. Changes in the CO2 sinks are highly uncertain, but they could have a significant influence on future atmospheric CO2 levels. It is therefore crucial to reduce the uncertainties.

Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide : Abstract : Nature Geoscience