This summer may see first ice-free North Pole


sanctus
#1
This summer may see first ice-free North Pole


SETH BORENSTEIN
The Associated Press


WASHINGTON A leading ice scientist says there's a 50-50 chance that the North Pole will be ice-free this summer, which would be a first in recorded history.
He says the weather and ocean conditions in the next couple of weeks will determine how much of the sea ice will melt, and early signs are not good.
Mark Serreze is a senior researcher at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colo. He says the chances for a total meltdown at the pole are higher than ever because the layer of ice coating the sea is thinner than ever.
Mr. Serreze says there is nothing scientifically significant about the North Pole, but there is a cultural and symbolic importance.
Last August, the Northwest Passage was open to navigation for the first time in memory.
Preliminary February and March data from a NASA satellite shows that the circle of ice surrounding the North Pole is considerably thinner than scientists have seen during the five years the satellite has been taking pictures, NASA ice scientist Jay Zwally said Friday. He thinks there is slightly less than a 50-50 chance the North Pole will be ice-free.
Last year was a record year for ice melt all over the Arctic and the ice band surrounding the North Pole is even thinner now.
A large area at the North Pole and surrounding the North Pole is first-year ice, Mr. Serreze said. That's the stuff that tends to melt out in the summer because it's thin.
A more conservative ice scientist, Cecilia Bitz at the University of Washington, put the odds of a North Pole without ice closer to 1-in-4. Even that is far worse than climate models had predicted, which was 1-in-70 some time in the next decade, she said.
But both she and Mr. Serreze agree it's just a matter of time.
I would guess within the next 10 years it would happen at least once, Ms. Bitz said.
Already, figures from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show sea ice in the Arctic as a whole at about the same level now as it was at its low point last year in late June and early July.
The explanation is a warming climate and a weather phenomenon, scientists said.
For the last couple of decades, there has been a steady melt of Arctic sea ice, which covers only the ocean and which thins during summer and refreezes in winter. In recent years, it has gradually become thinner because more of it has been melting as the Earth's temperature rises.
Then, this past winter, there was a natural weather shift called the Arctic Oscillation, sort of a cold weather cousin to El Nino. That oscillation caused a change in winds and ocean that accelerated a normal flushing of sea ice in the Arctic. That pushed the older thicker sea ice that had been over the North Pole south toward Greenland and eventually out of the Arctic, Mr. Serreze said. That left just a thin one-year layer of ice that previously covered part of Siberia.
 
Stretch
#2
Study finds Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes
Study finds Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes...
Posted Jun 27, 2008 02:28 PM (external - login to view) PST
Category:
SCIENCE/HEALTH (external - login to view)


So, it isn't your SUV that melted the polar ice cap. And by the way, even though the ice cap is supposed to be all but gone, New York City hasn't been flooded.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/st...e-f48c0dc90304
 
CDNBear
+2
#3
A 50 50 chance eh? That's some clear cut science at work there...
 
Nuggler
#4


Haff !!

do i hear haff

50 50 gimme 50

got 50, gimme 60

60 anywhere

50505050505050

gonna let this beautiful ice cap go at 50

55 anywhere

once

twice

GONE AT 50

..........................................maybe


 
MikeyDB
#5
Gee now Harper can convince his pals in Washington to free up a little cheap gasoline for the lawn mower we'll need to keep America's golf greens trimmed up around the pole!
 
lone wolf
#6
Who gets to claim any new islands?

Woof!
 
MikeyDB
#7
Lone Wolf

Well it seems only fair to base that idea on who uses the most fossil fuel in the world gets first pick.
 
I think not
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by MikeyDBView Post

Gee now Harper can convince his pals in Washington to free up a little cheap gasoline for the lawn mower we'll need to keep America's golf greens trimmed up around the pole!

Golf is huge business, sounds like a plan.

Quote: Originally Posted by MikeyDBView Post

Lone Wolf

Well it seems only fair to base that idea on who uses the most fossil fuel in the world gets first pick.

Oooo Oooo Oooo us first!
 
MikeyDB
#9
ITN

I like golf...used to play...can't any more but still like the game. And of course it only makes sense that those contributing most to the thaw receive the benefits!
 
I think not
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by MikeyDBView Post

ITN

I like golf...used to play...can't any more but still like the game. And of course it only makes sense that those contributing most to the thaw receive the benefits!

Oh well then we lucked out, because officially for the last 10 months China has taken our lead.
 
MikeyDB
#11
ITN

You are one ballsy guy! You'd like to paint the picture that the United States of Rampant Consumerism can be "let-off-the-hook" in terms of contributing more to global warming than anyone else....because recently China used more fuel?

I understand....we'll just discount the decades of American four wheel freedom and blame the gooks! (By the way for those unfamiliar with the term "gook" is an Asian word that was bstardized by the west as a perjorative term for anyone with an epicanthic fold fold.) No offense intended anyone just trying to get into the spirit of spreading around the blame....its an American tradition.
 
lone wolf
#12
If volcanic activity is heating the ocean, you can only hold warm air 10% responsible for melting the ice
 
Lester
#13
[quote=Stretch;963275]

So, it isn't your SUV that melted the polar ice cap. And by the way, even though the ice cap is supposed to be all but gone, New York City hasn't been flooded.

quote]

New York wouldn't be flooded if the entire northpole melted,the Ice in the Northpole(arctic) floats like an ice cube in a glass of water. It's the southpole (antarctica) that matters since all the ice is ON the land down there, and that would flow into the sea adding to the volume of water.
 
Walter
-1
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by MikeyDBView Post

You'd like to paint the picture that the United States of Rampant Consumerism can be "let-off-the-hook" in terms of contributing more to global warming than anyone else....because recently China used more fuel?

I understand....we'll just discount the decades of American four wheel freedom and blame the gooks! (By the way for those unfamiliar with the term "gook" is an Asian word that was bstardized by the west as a perjorative term for anyone with an epicanthic fold fold.) No offense intended anyone just trying to get into the spirit of spreading around the blame....its an American tradition.

Took a while for the U.S. bashing to start on this thread. C'mon folks, you're slowing down.
 
Walter
-1
#15
"It will without doubt have come to your Lordship's knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.
(This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations."President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817
 
earth_as_one
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by StretchView Post

Study finds Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes
Study finds Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes...
Posted Jun 27, 2008 02:28 PM (external - login to view) PST
Category: SCIENCE/HEALTH (external - login to view)


So, it isn't your SUV that melted the polar ice cap. And by the way, even though the ice cap is supposed to be all but gone, New York City hasn't been flooded.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/st...e-f48c0dc90304


From your interesting link:

Quote:

...The scientists say the heat released by the explosions is not contributing to the melting of the Arctic ice, but Sohn says the huge volumes of CO2 gas that belched out of the undersea volcanoes likely contributed to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. How much, he couldn't say.

There are no volcanoes exploding in the area right now, but they scientists say there appears to still be a lot happening on the sea floor. "I had the impression this whole central volcano area was oozing warm fluid," says Henrietta Edmonds of the University of Texas, who was on the expedition tracking the plumes of warm waters rising from the spreading ridge....

 
Praxius
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by sanctusView Post

This summer may see first ice-free North Pole
SETH BORENSTEIN
The Associated Press

WASHINGTON A leading ice scientist says there's a 50-50 chance that the North Pole will be ice-free this summer, which would be a first in recorded history......

...... Mr. Serreze says there is nothing scientifically significant about the North Pole, but there is a cultural and symbolic importance.

So if he's a scientists, and he's claiming there is nothing scientifically significant about the North Pole, then why is he wasting our time trying to add more on emotional appeal? That's not his job, last I checked..... that's for the politicians to do

Quote:

Last August, the Northwest Passage was open to navigation for the first time in memory. Preliminary February and March data from a NASA satellite shows that the circle of ice surrounding the North Pole is considerably thinner than scientists have seen during the five years the satellite has been taking pictures, NASA ice scientist Jay Zwally said Friday. He thinks there is slightly less than a 50-50 chance the North Pole will be ice-free.

He thinks there is slightly less then a 50/50 chance the NP will be ice free? Does that mean less chance of it happening, or less chance of it not happening?

Quote:

.....A more conservative ice scientist, Cecilia Bitz at the University of Washington, put the odds of a North Pole without ice closer to 1-in-4. Even that is far worse than climate models had predicted, which was 1-in-70 some time in the next decade, she said.
But both she and Mr. Serreze agree it's just a matter of time.

Well of course it is... anybody and their monkey could tell you that. The bigger question is "What's your point? What are you getting at?"

It's going to melt, it's supposed to after so many centuries etc. Guess what? Nova Scotia still isn't anymore under the Ocean then it was several years ago..... who cares? That's the way she goes and unless we decide to build a Super Ice Ray Gun on the Moon to shoot back at our planet to keep it cool.... there's not much we're able to do about it.

Even if we could just make the whole thing snap right back to the way we "Think" it should be in a day and everything went back to normal, imagine the actual shock to the entire eco-system it would have if that occured..... and is that such a good idea?
 
Walter
#18
 
eanassir
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by WalterView Post

"It will without doubt have come to your Lordship's knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.

(This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations."President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817

Recently [and according to Yahoo news] the Russian expedition in the North Pole, with its 20 members have been withdrawn; because their frozen area has been molten.

Therefore, is this a Russian propaganda to obtain taxes, in addition to the alleged US propaganda!!?
Last edited by eanassir; Jul 17th, 2008 at 10:45 AM..
 
Walter
-1
#20
More ice than expected in parts of the Arctic

2008-07-24

Ice at Spitsbergen (Barentsphoto.com)

New data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute shows that there is more ice than normal in the Arctic waters north of the Svalbard archipelago.

In most years, there are open waters in the area north of the archipelago in July month. Studies from this year however show that the area is covered by ice, the Meteorological Institute writes in a press release (external - login to view).
In mid-July, the research vessel Lance and the Swedish shp MV Stockholm got stuck in ice in the area and needed help from the Norwegian Coast Guard to get loose.
The ice findings from the area spurred surprise among the researchers, many of whom expect the very North Pole to be ice-free by September this year.
 
scratch
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by WalterView Post

More ice than expected in parts of the Arctic

2008-07-24

Ice at Spitsbergen (Barentsphoto.com)

New data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute shows that there is more ice than normal in the Arctic waters north of the Svalbard archipelago.

In most years, there are open waters in the area north of the archipelago in July month. Studies from this year however show that the area is covered by ice, the Meteorological Institute writes in a press release (external - login to view).
In mid-July, the research vessel Lance and the Swedish shp MV Stockholm got stuck in ice in the area and needed help from the Norwegian Coast Guard to get loose.
The ice findings from the area spurred surprise among the researchers, many of whom expect the very North Pole to be ice-free by September this year.

Better ice than not.
 
L Gilbert
#22
Um, it is only a month away from Sept. I cannot see that amount of ice melting in that period. Tables of the mass of ice in the arctic:

www.crrel.usace.army.mil/sid/IMB/buoysum.htm (external - login to view)

Lookit this set of graphs, particularly the temperature graph:

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np_weatherdata.html

In order for the ice to be gone from the north pole, the temperature would have to rise drastically throughout August. I can't see it happening. Ever tried to melt a block of ice 1.9 meters thick in temperatures around 0C? It doesn't happen fast.
 
Walter
-1
#23
We have reached the apex of Arctic ice-melt for 2008, about 750,000 square km less melt than last year. There is about 3.75 million sq.km. of ice on the Arctic Ocean; so much for an ice-free Arctic. Maybe next year Al and David can rejoice. Bloody AGW's.
 
Unforgiven
#24
On the up side, real estate is quite cheap up that way. Get yours today and be the first on your block to go Arctic!
 
Walter
-1
#25
 
Scott Free
#26
50/50 huh? I don't believe it, that's too good a prediction for current models; sounds like a wild guess.
 
Walter
#27
 
Walter
-1
#28
Artic Sea Ice Melt Season Officially Over; ice up over 9% from last year (external - login to view)

16 09 2008
We have news from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). They say (external - login to view): The melt is over. And we’ve added 9.4% ice coverage from this time last year. Though it appears NSIDC is attempting to downplay this in their web page announcement today, one can safely say that despite irrational predictions seen earlier this year, we didn’t reach an “ice free north pole” nor a new record low for sea ice extent.
Here is the current sea ice extent graph from NSIDC as of today, notice the upturn, which has been adding ice now for 5 days:
(external - login to view)
 
Risus
#29
I think those guys just cry wolf....
 
zoofer
#30
Ice cap melting? Good news.
Now if we could just fix it so the climate never changes again in a million years I will plant a palm tree on Hans Island.
 

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