What's the possiblility of a conservative majority?

[Machjo]

Notice the lower-case 'c'.

I've actually met conservatives who'd told me that though they'd love to see a conservative majority government, they also don't trust the CPC. As for how to achieve a concervatvie majority without a CPC majority, I've heard various comments. One person had suggested voting for indipenent conservative-leaning candidates, in the hope that this would put another conservative in Parliament without giving the CPC a majority, possibly leading to a co-alition comprising the CPC and independent conservatives MPs. Others have suggested a re-establishment of the Reform and Progressive Conservative Parties, that the fusion of these two parties was a bad idea, and that perhaps a conservative co-alition in Parlaiment consisting of the Reform and PC parties might work. I've heard of other alternatives that have been brandied about too.

What are you thoughts on this; could there be a conservative majority without a CPC majority?

 

[Machjo]

As fir my view, I might not mind a conservative majority co-alition comprising the CPC and a few independent MPs. Then again, I might not necessarily mind a social democratic one either. The main thing that worries me is excessive power, so if the majority government could be sustained only by being propped up by some independent MPs, or alternatively, another party, fringe or otherwise, it helps to keep the government's power in check.

 

[Spade]

Let P(C) = Probability of a Conservative majority.

0 ≤ P(C) < 1/1000 000!

 

[Machjo]

Again, as I'd said, I'd used the lowercase 'c' for a reason. Conservative does not necessarily equal conservative.

 

[gerryh]

Oh yes please..... restartup the reform and OC party's..... then we would have 3 "conservative" party6's running in the election...splitting the conservative vote...garaunteeing a liberal majority....forever.

 

[Machjo]

Honestly, I wouldn't mind a social democratic majority either. But again, as long as it's not a one-party majority. A minority NDP government propped up by independent MPs to form a majority co-alition is something I might go for. Same with liberal vs Liberal. I just don't know if I trust majority single-party governments anymore.

 

[lone wolf]

I certainly don't trust the Old Boys' club....

 

[Machjo]

Oh yes please..... restartup the reform and OC party's..... then we would have 3 "conservative" party6's running in the election...splitting the conservative vote...garaunteeing a liberal majority....forever.

You're right. That is a problem. But then again, this might win back some conservative votes that simply vote strategically to avoid a majority anyway. But I agree, that does create a catch-22. If they all vote for the same conservative party, it risks a CPC majority. If they vote in dependent or another conservative party, they risk splitting the vote. Then again, I suppose the left faces the same dilemma except with the difference that they needn't worry about an NDP majority yet.

 

[Colpy]

Notice the lower-case 'c'.

I've actually met conservatives who'd told me that though they'd love to see a conservative majority government, they also don't trust the CPC. As for how to achieve a concervatvie majority without a CPC majority, I've heard various comments. One person had suggested voting for indipenent conservative-leaning candidates, in the hope that this would put another conservative in Parliament without giving the CPC a majority, possibly leading to a co-alition comprising the CPC and independent conservatives MPs. Others have suggested a re-establishment of the Reform and Progressive Conservative Parties, that the fusion of these two parties was a bad idea, and that perhaps a conservative co-alition in Parlaiment consisting of the Reform and PC parties might work. I've heard of other alternatives that have been brandied about too.

What are you thoughts on this; could there be a conservative majority without a CPC majority?

no

vote splitting

been there, done that.

 

[Machjo]

no

vote splitting

been there, done that.

Then what about the start of a conservative movement to vote independent only. This woudl put an end to all conservative parties and thus avoid vote splitting on that front, while having the right vote en force for local independent candidates. This could be a way to avoid vote splitting and ensure no excessive power at the same time. If such a co-alition ever formed a majority, it would not be a party but a co-alition, and so the leader couldn't expect too much loyalty from the other MPs. It would form a good balance.

The trick though would be to get support for this. This would probably increase the conservative vote count though since conservatives would no longer need to fear a party majority.

But again, I admit that the biggest hurdle would be on how to start such a movement.

 

[gerryh]

roflmfao..... naiveitivity(sp) in politics...how quaint.

 

[Machjo]

roflmfao..... naiveitivity(sp) in politics...how quaint.

That's why I said it's highly unlikely. But then again, we can't deny that there are conservatives who don't trust a CPC majority, fearing it's much more radical than it's pretending to be. Whether the belief is true or not, it doesn't change the fact that this kind of conservative is likely to vote CPC only when he's sure the CPC won't form a majority, and votes otherwise when he believes that a CPC majority could occur.

So the question for the right would then be how to attract that kind of conservative voter. Where does he fit in.

I never said that my proposal above was likely or easy or even particularly realistic, but just something being thrown out as a brainstorm.

 

[Trex]

Notice the lower-case 'c'.

I've actually met conservatives who'd told me that though they'd love to see a conservative majority government, they also don't trust the CPC. As for how to achieve a concervatvie majority without a CPC majority, I've heard various comments. One person had suggested voting for indipenent conservative-leaning candidates, in the hope that this would put another conservative in Parliament without giving the CPC a majority, possibly leading to a co-alition comprising the CPC and independent conservatives MPs. Others have suggested a re-establishment of the Reform and Progressive Conservative Parties, that the fusion of these two parties was a bad idea, and that perhaps a conservative co-alition in Parlaiment consisting of the Reform and PC parties might work. I've heard of other alternatives that have been brandied about too.

What are you thoughts on this; could there be a conservative majority without a CPC majority?

Frankly I am not quite sure what you saying?
The Conservative Party of Canada is highly unlikely to fracture into various strange little sub-groupings.
There are very few independents.
I really don't think Harpo and the Cons have any interest whatsoever in any kind of weird coalition, union, or drug induced melding of the minds.
Why on earth would they?
Sure it's a minority, but still, they won everyone else lost.
And they get to sit in the big chair.

As to the question about a majority.
Yes, its possible.
Right now its far, far more possible for Harpo and the Con's than it is for the Lib's.

And the chances of the CP of C rupturing into various little right wing sub-groupings is about zero.

The remaining Liberal Chrieteinites versus the Martinites and the newly developing Iggyiets versus the Raeiets seems to me to be far more devisive and problematic at the moment in any case.

Trex

 

[petros]

If conservatives can't find the one flavour of right then how the hell can there be a majority? Even if there were a majoritythere wouldn't be a forwarding of the betterment of Canadians because of this internal bickering.

 

[Machjo]

If conservatives can't find the one flavour of right then how the hell can there be a majority? Even if there were a majoritythere wouldn't be a forwarding of the betterment of Canadians because of this internal bickering.

Atually, a conservative majority coalition would still be able to govern; it's just that there would be some checks and balances by keeping them from going too far to any extreme out of fear of collapsing the coalition. The same would apply to a social-democratic coalition by the way. I'd be quite fearful of an NDP majority let's say. But an NDP minority propped up by some social democratic independent MPs to form a majority coalition might not be so bad since if they start to go too far, the coalition would fall apart. So to make the coalition work, they'd be more liely to remain moderate left, just as a conservative coalition would be more likely to remain modeerate right.

 

[FiveParadox]

Don’t forget—conservatives believe that coalitions are seditious, treasonous, and plain ol’ anti-democratic.

 

[Machjo]

Don’t forget—conservatives believe that coalitions are seditious, treasonous, and plain ol’ anti-democratic.

5P, let me corect your typo. You meant Conservatives, not conservatives, right.

 

[Machjo]

Heck, if the CPC is that anti-democratic, then wiping it out of existence would be a very conservative, though not Conservative, act.

 

[Machjo]

Come to think of it, I think that's what scares me about the CPC; it's so confrontational, totally unwilling to work seek unity across the House, instead taking a war stance to form a House divided.

 

[petros]

Atually, a conservative majority coalition would still be able to govern; it's just that there would be some checks and balances by keeping them from going too far to any extreme out of fear of collapsing the coalition. The same would apply to a social-democratic coalition by the way. I'd be quite fearful of an NDP majority let's say. But an NDP minority propped up by some social democratic independent MPs to form a majority coalition might not be so bad since if they start to go too far, the coalition would fall apart. So to make the coalition work, they'd be more liely to remain moderate left, just as a conservative coalition would be more likely to remain modeerate right.

Any govt that is propped up or needs a coalition isn't a government that will work for and be a benefit to it's true responsiblity. You and me.