Liberals and Conservatives in Dead Heat

[#juan]

[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif] [FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]Liberal-Conservative Dead Heat - Green Party Picks up Support[/FONT][/FONT] [/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif] Nik on the Numbers...

The latest SES Research poll completed May 1st shows a drop in Conservative support and an increase in support for the Green Party. Nationally, the Liberals registered the support of 33% of decided voters followed by the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP at 17%, the Green Party at 10% and the BQ at 9%. One of the major shifts has occurred in Quebec with the Liberals picking up nine points and the Conservatives dropping 11 points. Last month the resurfacing of the sponsorship scandal and the arrest of Lafleur hit the Liberals in Quebec. This month the focus on Afghanistan has put downward pressure on Conservative support in Quebec. The Conservative-Liberal political see-saw continues.

Of note, for the first time in the history of the SES tracking of the national political scene, the Green Party has numerically surpassed the Bloc in national popular support (Green Party 10%, BQ 9%). Even though a statistical tie factoring the margin of accuracy, the Green Party was the only party to pick up support in all regions except Atlantic Canada.

You can share your views, rate the opinions of others, and ask me questions about this poll or any other issue. Check it out today at www.nikonthenumbers.com.



The Liberals are slightly ahead. I don't think Mr. Blackburn's recent extravagances are going to help much. We have to scrimp on equipment for our military and Blackburn is throwing money away on private jets.

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[westmanguy]

As we all know... national support means little.

It comes down to how it breaks down from riding-riding.

 

[#juan]

The point is that the Conservatives at one time had about an eight point lead on the Liberals. Some right wingers here were even calling for an election. That lead seems to have disappeared. I doubt there will be an election any time soon unless this trend gathers some speed......Then it might be the liberals who call for it.

 

[able]

I think these percentages will continue to fluctuate until after an election is called. People seem to be using the polls as a way to influence the government, ever notice that the Conservatives are the only party that never makes large gains. This business of waiting with bated breath is a pain, but Harper isn't going to let an election happen until after he has the Liberals in an election losing situation. In the meantime, all we can do is grin and bear it.

 

[BitWhys]

just as a reminder...

Harper can't call an election. Those days are gone.

 

[s_lone]

André Boisclair just resigned as leader of the Parti Québecois... That means Gilles Duceppe might very well try out being the next PQ leader... He is thinking about it that's for sure...

If Gilles Duceppe quits the BQ, the BQ would probably continue losing support. My guess is that the votes would either go to the NPD or the Green Party.

 

[#juan]

just as a reminder...

Harper can't call an election. Those days are gone.

I assume you are talking about the fixed election dates. I hate the idea because the last year of any mandate becomes a campaign for the next one. The only good thing I can see about it is it will stop these opportunistic election calls whenever the polls suggested a win was in the cards. Chretien did this very well.

 

[BitWhys]

I haven't put a lot of thought to it although I do get a kick out of how it puts the PM of a minority government at a disadvantage.

 

[unspoken]

The one thing I'm always curious about in regards to polls the exact questions that are asked. Because you could make a poll and find out that most people think the sky is orange as long as you ask the questions in the right way.

 

[BitWhys]

The SES poll is on its website...

http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S07-T234.pdf

 

[Cobalt_Kid]

The one thing I'm always curious about in regards to polls the exact questions that are asked. Because you could make a poll and find out that most people think the sky is orange as long as you ask the questions in the right way.

The poll asks people what party they would consider voting for federally, seems pretty clear to me.

The conservatives lost their tight control of what message they present to the media and for once the Canadian people got a clear glimpse of what they really represent. Apparently they don't like it.

 

[unspoken]

The poll asks people what party they would consider voting for federally, seems pretty clear to me.

The conservatives lost their tight control of what message they present to the media and for once the Canadian people got a clear glimpse of what they really represent. Apparently they don't like it.

Actually, looking at the website, it says to rank your top two local preferences. And that may give the Liberals a boost, since people who are 100% committed to voting Conservative likely wouldn't put NDP as a second choice, and vice versa.

I don't put much faith in polls though, whether the party I support is at 1%, 100%, or anywhere in between.

I think that Green number is quite a stretch too. Every time the Greens have polled well, it doesn't lead to results at the ballot box because of strategic voting. Traditional Conservative supporters thinking of voting Green would go back because they don't want the Liberals to win. Traditional Liberals thinking of voting Green will go back because they don't want the Conservatives to win. And people generally like to vote for a winner. The Greens could have had a shot at having a winner and finally getting a seat had it not been for the ego of their leader. And once her economy-killing fiscal plans and right-wing social beliefs become more known by the public, the further down the Greens will go.

 

[Cobalt_Kid]

Actually, looking at the website, it says to rank your top two local preferences. And that may give the Liberals a boost, since people who are 100% committed to voting Conservative likely wouldn't put NDP as a second choice, and vice versa.

I don't put much faith in polls though, whether the party I support is at 1%, 100%, or anywhere in between.

I think that Green number is quite a stretch too. Every time the Greens have polled well, it doesn't lead to results at the ballot box because of strategic voting. Traditional Conservative supporters thinking of voting Green would go back because they don't want the Liberals to win. Traditional Liberals thinking of voting Green will go back because they don't want the Conservatives to win. And people generally like to vote for a winner. The Greens could have had a shot at having a winner and finally getting a seat had it not been for the ego of their leader. And once her economy-killing fiscal plans and right-wing social beliefs become more known by the public, the further down the Greens will go.

I doubt someone who's 100% percent committed to the conservatives would put their major rival as second choice on a poll. This kind of poll takes into account how unstable any parties support is nowadays.

Polls do give a rough estimate on short-term political support, you do need to keep in mind that they represent opinion in the past though.

Climate change is going to be a much worse economy killer than emissions control in the long run. The people who are truly against taking preventitive measures are the same ones who have the most to lose. You know, the industry that posted record profits of over $100 billion last year.

 

[Walter]

There won't be a vote until at least '08 anyway, so who gives a hoot what the polls say?

 

[gc]

There won't be a vote until at least '08 anyway, so who gives a hoot what the polls say?

Because the polls will likely decide when the next election is.

 

[Toro]

I don't like the idea of a fixed election date.

I'd put money on another Tory minority at this time. The Tories can't seem to put any light between themselves and the Liberals to form a majority though.