I've gotten to thinking lately about how the next election is going to shape up, and I would like to throw a question out there and see what those in the know think.
In the last election, the breakdown of the popular vote was as follows: Conservatives 36.2%, Liberals 30.2%, Bloc 10.5%, NDP 17.5%, Green 4.5%. The resulting seat breakdown was as follows: Conservatives 124, Liberals 103, Bloc 51, NDP 29, and 1 Ind.
In the past few days, I have heard a lot of Conservative supporters talk about how Stephen Harper will win a majority in the next election. What I am curious to know is, for those who believe it to be the case, is it even really possible?
I mean, look at the numbers, province by province: they certainly won't win the three seats in the Northwest Territories, Nunavut or the Yukon, where they have always been a third-place party. It won't happen on the east coast, where more than enough people are fed up with the Conservatives to the point where their seat total will likely go down (even though they trailed in the vote breakdown during the last election anyways).
I would be stunned if they picked up any more seats in Quebec. I would be less than surprised if they lost most of them (about 8 of the 10), almost all but a couple to the Bloc, since they gained most of them in Quebec City, where the most anger over Harper's actions has resonated. This province is where Gomery was the most heated, and its results likely cost the Liberals the election; the issue here has since passed and with a Quebec leader, I don't see how it will be repeated.
It won't happen in Northern Ontario, as it will never be anything other than Liberal, despite the idiots that have served in many of our communities over the years (and the Conservatives have been relegated to a very distant third party). Eastern Ontario was already, and will likely forever be Conservative held anyways, while Central Ontario was split, and every seat the Conservatives picked up was really tight. I don't forsee Toronto going right-wing anytime soon. This is another place that I would be surprised if the Conservatives didn't lose a lot of seats.
The Liberals and the NDP only won 8 seats to the 20 Conservative seats in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, so there's not a lot of wiggle room for growth in these two provinces. There's even less in Alberta, where Conservatives won all 28 seats. In BC as it stands now I would expect little to change, but with environmental issues a large deal in BC voters minds, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Liberals picked up a lot of votes from the NDP next time around; on top of that the Conservatives actually lost seats here last time, and David Emerson defected afterwards. There is no way Emerson will keep his seat.
So I'm interested people, where are the extra seats will come from to ensure a majority for the Conservatives. Right now the Conservatives have 124; a majority is 155. The difference then is 31 seats gained, assuming that people like David Emerson don't lose their seats, and Garth Turner's riding revotes Conservative, neither which is very likely to happen. Even with everything against them; Gomery, income trusts, the ridiculous '5-point plan', the Liberals still captured more than 30% of the popular vote.
The results had a 6.5% change in votes for each party result in a 23% change in seats, a number which seems way out of whack when looking at it from a statistical point and the large sample size. It would have to happen again, but without losing a single vote, and with the odd propotions intact, almost 1.5 times greater in magnitude than before for the Conservatives to win a majority. Every way I break down the numbers, I don't see a Conservative majority happening - not now, not ever.
Information from Wikipedia.
In the last election, the breakdown of the popular vote was as follows: Conservatives 36.2%, Liberals 30.2%, Bloc 10.5%, NDP 17.5%, Green 4.5%. The resulting seat breakdown was as follows: Conservatives 124, Liberals 103, Bloc 51, NDP 29, and 1 Ind.
In the past few days, I have heard a lot of Conservative supporters talk about how Stephen Harper will win a majority in the next election. What I am curious to know is, for those who believe it to be the case, is it even really possible?
I mean, look at the numbers, province by province: they certainly won't win the three seats in the Northwest Territories, Nunavut or the Yukon, where they have always been a third-place party. It won't happen on the east coast, where more than enough people are fed up with the Conservatives to the point where their seat total will likely go down (even though they trailed in the vote breakdown during the last election anyways).
I would be stunned if they picked up any more seats in Quebec. I would be less than surprised if they lost most of them (about 8 of the 10), almost all but a couple to the Bloc, since they gained most of them in Quebec City, where the most anger over Harper's actions has resonated. This province is where Gomery was the most heated, and its results likely cost the Liberals the election; the issue here has since passed and with a Quebec leader, I don't see how it will be repeated.
It won't happen in Northern Ontario, as it will never be anything other than Liberal, despite the idiots that have served in many of our communities over the years (and the Conservatives have been relegated to a very distant third party). Eastern Ontario was already, and will likely forever be Conservative held anyways, while Central Ontario was split, and every seat the Conservatives picked up was really tight. I don't forsee Toronto going right-wing anytime soon. This is another place that I would be surprised if the Conservatives didn't lose a lot of seats.
The Liberals and the NDP only won 8 seats to the 20 Conservative seats in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, so there's not a lot of wiggle room for growth in these two provinces. There's even less in Alberta, where Conservatives won all 28 seats. In BC as it stands now I would expect little to change, but with environmental issues a large deal in BC voters minds, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Liberals picked up a lot of votes from the NDP next time around; on top of that the Conservatives actually lost seats here last time, and David Emerson defected afterwards. There is no way Emerson will keep his seat.
So I'm interested people, where are the extra seats will come from to ensure a majority for the Conservatives. Right now the Conservatives have 124; a majority is 155. The difference then is 31 seats gained, assuming that people like David Emerson don't lose their seats, and Garth Turner's riding revotes Conservative, neither which is very likely to happen. Even with everything against them; Gomery, income trusts, the ridiculous '5-point plan', the Liberals still captured more than 30% of the popular vote.
The results had a 6.5% change in votes for each party result in a 23% change in seats, a number which seems way out of whack when looking at it from a statistical point and the large sample size. It would have to happen again, but without losing a single vote, and with the odd propotions intact, almost 1.5 times greater in magnitude than before for the Conservatives to win a majority. Every way I break down the numbers, I don't see a Conservative majority happening - not now, not ever.
Information from Wikipedia.
