by Romeo St. Martin
OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper spent his first months in power with a certain swagger, but a surging Liberal party coupled with dissent from within are threatening the PM's hold on power and will change the dynamics in Parliament.
The Liberals left their weekend leadership convention more united than in recent memory and in an upbeat mood. And if that was not enough the party's chief financial officer told delegates last Friday that the party was in the black and was financially ready to fight an election.
In addition, having moved ahead of the Tories in the polls without a leader last month, the election of Stephane Dion and the bounce from the five-day Liberal infomercial has put the Liberals in front of the Tories.
A Decima poll has the Grits at 35, four points ahead of the Tories. A Strategic Counsel poll had the Liberals at 37, six points ahead of the Tories. And in Quebec, the Liberals under Dion are polling at 35 per cent, compared to 17 per cent for the Tories.
Harper has spent much of his time as prime minister trying to position the Tories to win a majority in the next election, primarily by picking up more Mulroney-era seats in Quebec.
Right now that plan is looking more and more like a fantasy than a real strategy. But then again, so did the Tories winning 10 seats in Quebec at the outset of the last federal election.
The Tory failure to move up in the polls this fall and Dion's strong early polling results are the first two steps in a potential problem for Harper's leader-oriented government.
Most of the Conservative caucus have been willing to go along or put up with Harper's PMO control of communications and policy because it has the intended goal of delivering the Conservatives their first majority government in a generation.
But if the Tory slide in support continues, more and more MPs may be less concerned about Harper winning a majority and more concerned about saving their own seats, especially as an election approaches.
And already private grumbling about Harper's style has become more and more public in recent weeks. The fortress around what goes on behind the scenes is slowly being penetrated with non-flattering leaks from inside.
PoliticsWatch has learned that regional caucus meetings have become weekly venting sessions for MPs and even cabinet ministers frustrated at the centralized control of Harper's PMO.
One cabinet minister has complained to his colleagues about a two-week delay he faced in delivering a straightforward, positive speech because he had to wait for PMO approval.
Discussion at Alberta caucus is said to be dominated in recent weeks with complaints about the government's income-trust flip-flop.
MPs are more reluctant to voice complaints at national caucus in front of the prime minister. That could be due to past heavy-handed tactics from Harper.
According to sources, when the government announced $1 billion in spending cuts in September, caucus learned about it after the cuts had been made. Harper then told MPs that specific MPs would be designated to speak about the cuts and any MP that publicly voiced criticism about cuts affecting their riding would do so at their own peril.
There is also a general sense from MPs that unelected party officials are exerting too much influence and are disrespecting caucus and elected officials.
This is in addition to other recent leaks from the inside to the media.
On November 17, a communication director for a Tory cabinet minister told the Globe and Mail about a plan by Harper's communication director, Sandra Buckler, to have ministerial communications directors provide private assessments of their ministers. The move is said to have created friction between the PMO and some ministers.
That same day, National Post columnist John Ivison reported that Tory "insiders say that doubts over the communications strategy have been raised at caucus and Cabinet. A number of caucus members spoke of their frustrations yesterday, an indication MPs are losing the fear of speaking out that has been their hallmark since coming to power."
Last week, Tory MP Michael Chong, who had just resigned as Harper's intergovernmental affairs minister, told reporters that Harper did not consult with him on a motion to recognize the Quebecois as a nation. This was after it was revealed that former Liberal intergovernmental affairs minister Stephane Dion had received a call from the PM to discuss the motion before Harper told his caucus.
Chong's revelation seemed to confirm suspicions about cabinet ministers having very little say in government policy and strategy.
However, this week the leaks coming from Tory insiders reached a new high.
On Thursday, the Canadian Press based a story on details from two government sources of a cabinet debate that painted the PM in an unflattering light.
The story suggested that for months three of Harper's top ministers -- Public Security Minister Stockwell Day, Justice Minister Vic Toews and Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay -- have been pressing Harper to fire RCMP Commissioner Giuliani Zaccardelli to no avail.
One insider gave CP a rare account of an exchange between Harper and Day at a recent cabinet meeting where Day pressed Harper again to fire Zaccardelli.
"Harper just changed the channel," the source told CP. "He said, 'Now, moving along to the next subject.' He just cut (Day) dead."
Harper called the CP story a "ridiculous rumour" and Day said in question period on Friday it was an "utter fabrication," which coincidentally was the same language Harper's communications director used to describe the story.
The week ended Friday with the Vancouver Sun reporting that Tory MP John Cummins has gone public with his opposition to a plan by Harper and Indian Affairs Minister Jim Prentice to sign an aboriginal land treaty.
Cummins is not expected to be disciplined, like former Tory MP Garth Turner who was kicked out of caucus earlier this fall.
But in a minority Parliament with the Tories trailing the Liberals Harper appears to have few options.
After last week's byelections that added to the ranks of the Liberals and the Bloc, the loss of another Tory MP would make it extremely difficult for the government to stave off a non-confidence vote with the support of the Bloc and the Liberals.
And that would change the essential dynamic from the spring where it was Harper who was the one who held the best cards.
Knowing that the Liberals were embarking on a lengthy leadership process, the PM threatened to force an election no fewer than three times during the spring.
The most egregious use of this threat was after the NDP put forward a motion of no-confidence in Environment Minister Rona Ambrose. Harper warned that it would be a matter of confidence if it came to the floor of the House of Commons. Fearing an election, the Liberals voted to against the NDP motion, killing it at the committee level.
Knowing the Liberals could not defeat the government, Harper was able to threaten and intimidate his opponents.
But not any more.
Dion and the Liberals are probably not ready for an election just yet after fighting a marathon leadership battle (in fact Dion isn't even ready for opposition either as he doesn't plan to have his shadow cabinet introduced until next month), but there is no doubt that he wants one soon.
So how soon could Canadians be going to the polls if it were up to Mr. Dion?
"Liberals, we need to get back to power as soon as possible," Dion told party faithful at the leadership debate in Toronto in October. And among Dion's first words to delegates upon winning the Liberal crown on the weekend, "Stephen Harper, we are counting the days until the next election."
Harper's springtime threats to go to the polls were part wishful thinking, mostly bluff. However, if Harper were to make the threat again, he could have in Dion a willing accomplice in ending this session of Parliament .
