OTTAWA — A clear majority of Canadians consider the mission in Afghanistan a lost cause, according to an extensive survey that hints at deep public skepticism about the war on terror.
Decima Research polled more than 2,000 Canadians last month just as Prime Minister Stephen Harper stepped up his efforts to promote the mission.
Fifty-nine per cent of respondents agreed Canadian soldiers "are dying for a cause we cannot win," while just 34 per cent disagreed with that statement.
An even larger majority said they would never fight in Afghanistan themselves under any circumstances — not even if they were forced to in some military draft.
The online survey of 2,038 people was conducted Sept. 8-18 and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The doubts of respondents about Canada's chances in Afghanistan paled in comparison to their downright dismissal of the overall U.S.-led war on terror.
Almost three-quarters said the Bush administration had made the world more dangerous, 76 per cent said American policy had contributed to a rise in terrorism, and 68 per cent predicted the U.S. will eventually abandon Iraq without success.
"I think the reason the Afghan mission is coming under such scrutiny has less to do with Canada's position," said Decima pollster Bruce Anderson.
"It has more to do with doubts about the leadership of the Bush administration in the war on terror than (with) decisions made by the Liberals or the Conservatives to participate in Afghanistan."
This public skepticism could have deep implications for Canada, both politically and militarily.
Kandahar now threatens to become the centre of Canada's political universe, just nine months after a federal election that saw almost no discussion of international issues.
In the last month alone, the NDP called for a quick pullout, while the prime minister launched a media blitz to promote the mission and suggested troops could even remain beyond the currently scheduled end to the deployment in 2009.
Harper has been ubiquitous in his defence of the Canadian mission to Afghanistan over the last few weeks. It was at the heart of his address to Canadians on the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.
The prime minister admitted, in recent television interviews, that the fighting has been more difficult than he anticipated. But he exorted other leaders — and Canadians watching at home — to stay the course in Afghanistan during an address at the United Nations. The same message was driven home by Afghan President Hamid Karzai during his visit to Canada just over a week ago.
Twenty-eight per cent of respondents in the Decima poll said they would fight in Afghanistan if they were of fighting age and were called upon in a military draft.
No politician of any stripe has proposed conscription. But Anderson said the military could take a glass-half-full approach in interpreting the numbers.
He pointed out, for example, that the Canadian Forces could fill their ranks several times over if 28 per cent of adult Canadians agreed to take up arms. Among those aged 18-34, 20 per cent indicated that they would be willing to fight.
The military has in fact been surpassing its recent recruitment targets, despite the fact that 37 soldiers have died in Afghanistan since the mission began in 2002.
Anderson urged caution in trying to read too much into the number of respondents who said they would refuse to serve in Afghanistan if drafted.
"We should assume that some people don't know what a draft is, whether or not there is one currently, and the implications of refusing a draft. In large measure they're reacting on the basis of `I don't want to go and put my life at risk.' "
However, it's also true that people are considerably more likely to say they would fight in Afghanistan if they believe the cause will be successful, and half as likely if they doubt it.
The results were generally similar across the country, although there were some differences. At one end of the spectrum, 14 per cent of Quebecers said they would fight while, at the other end, 38 per cent of Albertans said the same.
Anderson said Canadians may start demanding a middle alternative — something that keeps our soldiers in Afghanistan, but with some changes to the current mission.
"If people come increasingly to the view that this is not going to succeed, and that these lives will be lost in vain, they're going to want another solution," he said.
"They might not be able to articulate what it is, or how it should come about, but they are going to be asking their political leadership for an alternative to lives being lost in vain."
Decima's survey also found that:
— 74 per cent of respondents said Bush has made the world a more dangerous place, while just 15 per cent said he has made it safer.
— 67 per cent said they couldn't trust Bush's warnings about North Korea because he was '``wrong about Iraq."
— 65 per cent called the terrorist prisons at Guantanamo Bay an ``embarrassment."
Decima Research polled more than 2,000 Canadians last month just as Prime Minister Stephen Harper stepped up his efforts to promote the mission.
Fifty-nine per cent of respondents agreed Canadian soldiers "are dying for a cause we cannot win," while just 34 per cent disagreed with that statement.
An even larger majority said they would never fight in Afghanistan themselves under any circumstances — not even if they were forced to in some military draft.
The online survey of 2,038 people was conducted Sept. 8-18 and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The doubts of respondents about Canada's chances in Afghanistan paled in comparison to their downright dismissal of the overall U.S.-led war on terror.
Almost three-quarters said the Bush administration had made the world more dangerous, 76 per cent said American policy had contributed to a rise in terrorism, and 68 per cent predicted the U.S. will eventually abandon Iraq without success.
"I think the reason the Afghan mission is coming under such scrutiny has less to do with Canada's position," said Decima pollster Bruce Anderson.
"It has more to do with doubts about the leadership of the Bush administration in the war on terror than (with) decisions made by the Liberals or the Conservatives to participate in Afghanistan."
This public skepticism could have deep implications for Canada, both politically and militarily.
Kandahar now threatens to become the centre of Canada's political universe, just nine months after a federal election that saw almost no discussion of international issues.
In the last month alone, the NDP called for a quick pullout, while the prime minister launched a media blitz to promote the mission and suggested troops could even remain beyond the currently scheduled end to the deployment in 2009.
Harper has been ubiquitous in his defence of the Canadian mission to Afghanistan over the last few weeks. It was at the heart of his address to Canadians on the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.
The prime minister admitted, in recent television interviews, that the fighting has been more difficult than he anticipated. But he exorted other leaders — and Canadians watching at home — to stay the course in Afghanistan during an address at the United Nations. The same message was driven home by Afghan President Hamid Karzai during his visit to Canada just over a week ago.
Twenty-eight per cent of respondents in the Decima poll said they would fight in Afghanistan if they were of fighting age and were called upon in a military draft.
No politician of any stripe has proposed conscription. But Anderson said the military could take a glass-half-full approach in interpreting the numbers.
He pointed out, for example, that the Canadian Forces could fill their ranks several times over if 28 per cent of adult Canadians agreed to take up arms. Among those aged 18-34, 20 per cent indicated that they would be willing to fight.
The military has in fact been surpassing its recent recruitment targets, despite the fact that 37 soldiers have died in Afghanistan since the mission began in 2002.
Anderson urged caution in trying to read too much into the number of respondents who said they would refuse to serve in Afghanistan if drafted.
"We should assume that some people don't know what a draft is, whether or not there is one currently, and the implications of refusing a draft. In large measure they're reacting on the basis of `I don't want to go and put my life at risk.' "
However, it's also true that people are considerably more likely to say they would fight in Afghanistan if they believe the cause will be successful, and half as likely if they doubt it.
The results were generally similar across the country, although there were some differences. At one end of the spectrum, 14 per cent of Quebecers said they would fight while, at the other end, 38 per cent of Albertans said the same.
Anderson said Canadians may start demanding a middle alternative — something that keeps our soldiers in Afghanistan, but with some changes to the current mission.
"If people come increasingly to the view that this is not going to succeed, and that these lives will be lost in vain, they're going to want another solution," he said.
"They might not be able to articulate what it is, or how it should come about, but they are going to be asking their political leadership for an alternative to lives being lost in vain."
Decima's survey also found that:
— 74 per cent of respondents said Bush has made the world a more dangerous place, while just 15 per cent said he has made it safer.
— 67 per cent said they couldn't trust Bush's warnings about North Korea because he was '``wrong about Iraq."
— 65 per cent called the terrorist prisons at Guantanamo Bay an ``embarrassment."
