Large Cities, Large Fear

I'd really like to get some views on the issue of general lack of conservative support in major urban centres such as Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. I'm still a political neophyte, although I am majoring in political science and am a first year student. I feel I can learn much from the members here.

Perhaps it's not the support however, but the electoral system that is the problem? Is it about time we changed the current voting system, which easily breeds strategic voting that undermines the whole parliamentary system? (i.e. instead vote for best representative).

An excerpt from a CBC.ca article (Read ahead if wanted)
"What if Canada had a different way of electing MPs?
By: Robert Sheppard.

'...As the non-partisan group Fair Vote Canada likes to point out, our first-past-the-post electoral system, in which we like to revel in all those close three-way races on election night, tends to provide enough distortions all on its own. Consider the fact that, in the current election, the NDP won about a million more votes than the Bloc but took only 29 seats to the BQ's 51. Or that the Green party attracted more than 650,000 voters and won no seats while the Liberals' 475,000 voters in Atlantic Canada produced 20 MPs.

Just wasteful politicking you say? Get the Greens to concentrate, Bloc-like, on only a relative handful of ridings instead of all 308 and perhaps they will achieve electoral success on their own. Well, maybe. But is it right that the Conservatives win three times as many votes as the Liberals in the Prairies and take nearly 10 times the seats? Or that the Conservatives earn nearly half a million votes in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver and yet are totally shut out of the big three urban centres?...'"

Thoughts?

Well one of two things.
1. He will reach out to the cities in hope to achieve some level of support and move even more to the centre. (which he might see a threat to spliting his base)
2. He just won't care about the urban centre's of Canada and tell the Cities to go look for handouts by the provinces. Which is a mistake on his part, but I think either may happen.


I just don't think he may moderate himself because the figurers point that an early election may give him even more seats, xp if he can blame it on the opisition and with the liberals in the middle of a leadership debate, the NDP unable to make large enough gains and the left generally spliting the vote now. also when you look at the possiable weakness of the bloq now that conservative mp's will be in power and may swing some more seats there way.... well.... the conservatives might be looking for another election and I highly doubt they will be moderate unless they really want to get the urban vote.

What would be interesting is if the Liberals and the New Democrats, came together to form a ... Liberal Democrat or a Democratic party. I doubt that will happen. =-(

finder,

i too have wondered about a lib-ndp merger, but the libs are a broad party. it would more likely be the left-libs joining the ndp, and the right-libs joining the red-tories. I don't know if any benefit would come from such a scenario though.

There was talk about once... back when the NDP were about 13 seats and Alexia was incharge *cringes* Then they were going to merge with the Canadian action party (left liberals) but the one thing they demanded was a name change and the NDP wouldn't. Thats just because the Canadian action party has never been more then a moderately ok fringe party (had its one election which they were seen as basically the green party today).


I don't know man. The progressive vote is really split between the Liberals and the NDP. I know if the NDP did merge with the Liberals a lot of the extreme leftist (about 2-5%) of the party would leave. But the NDP don't need them anyways and they are not apart of what the NDP/CCf stand for. I think a new centre leftist party is really needed. I mean in the USA the Democrats are anywhere from centre-right (even right) to hard left. So.... yeah some Liberals would move over to the Conservatives but I think at least half or more then half would form the new party.

LOL

It's time to unit the LEFT. lol

I think it's time to overhaul the electoral system...there are too many incongruities in the system we currently have.

The Liberals have catered to the immigrant vote since Trudeau wrote the Charter for "everyone" in the world. And first generation immigrants do no go to live out in the country. They live in the major cities where the jobs are.

These immigrants have close ties with their old cultures and the Liberals are also into multiculturalism in a big way. Mulroney (he of the GST) could not break into this area and the new Conservative party are connected to him in their minds.

Therefore the Liberals have a lock on areas where there are many immigrants.

The cities are major liberal holds because of the strategic placing of immigrants, and the liberals have always made it know that "We brought you here to help you, when the time comes you help us", that combined with the general theory of FUD and that is all people need to never look at anyone other than the liberals. I figured this was known. It was a P.E.T trick that J.C carried on with.

"Strategic placing of immigrants?" I was not aware that the Government of Canada bound immigrants to remain in any particular area.

more than immigration it is also the conservatives shortterm past record on cities that scares me and a lot of like-minded ppl.

The PC in Ontario are hated quite a bit for their dedication to building highways isntead of helping mass transit, going sof ar as to cancel a subway in progress, refill the diggin and sell of the land so the subway could never be built. you guessed it, Harris axed the eglinton line for the boondoggle we now know as the 407 ETR. Mind you Flaherty who worked in the Harris government may get minister of finance which is a really bad thing.

also the fact that the cons seem to target those with teh guns isntead of attempting to create an environment that breeeds animosity and criminal activity. Affordable housing is a big issue.

btw where u studying pol. sci? Hopefully UofT?

5 pardox, they aren't bound to stay there, but with their "own" area's already established it is a no brainer to know where they will generally reside. It isn't a value thing, and I am not saying they are to blame at all. If I was in another country I would probably try to stay around as many canadians as I could as well - it gives a sense of comfort in a new place.

However, that understanding doesn't change the reasons why there are these large ethnic area's within major urban area's - which is exactly why the con's will always have poor showngs in those area's. Once again, it isn't a good thing, or a bad thing, merely why, IMO, it is.

I wish I could remember the details, but here's a story:

I was watching political pundits on CPAC a couple of years ago. One of the gentlemen was an immigrant from somewhere in Africa. He arrived here with his parents when he was 15 or 16, and worked hard, got a good education, and was a person of some note for some reason.....

Anyway, the discussion turned to voting patterns among immigrants, and their tendency to vote Liberal. The gentleman in question, who arrived in the early seventies, pointed out that many immigrants don't really "get" the democracy thing at first. They may have voted in the old country, but far too often they lived in one party states, or states where tribal or other loyalties meant there was really only one choice.

To illustrate his point, he recited the Canadian National anthem as he thought it was when he first lived in Canada:

"With glowing hearts we see thee rise
The Trudeau strong and Free"

Says it all

Ethnic vote shut out Conservatives?

Perhaps it was the ethic Liberal vote but the urban centers also leaned heavily for the NDP. Wouldn't that bring more of a division of left wing vote and allow a few Tories to be elected by default?

There are a few other demographics to consider.
The gay and lesbian voter is definately not voting conservative. They have a much greater number in the three main centers.

So also is the 'feminist' bloc.

One scary demographic is that the major centers are also Canada's organized crime centers. The liberals have always been soft on crime and criminals. Can we then say that the liberals have reached out to organized crime to support their party? Wasn't there a hint of that in the Gomery Report?

You make it sound as if those who support the Liberal Party are somehow ... negative.

I certainly didn't mean to imply that the Conservatives lost the big cities to "money and the ethnic vote."

I haven't had that much to drink.

Oh, it was funny when the Frenchies said it!

York University. Hopefully appeal to history doesn't pop up in your upcoming argument against my university.
A course is only as good as it's lecturer as far as I'm concerned, and I have a professor who is strikingly intelligent and well spoken. There are some glaring pros and cons for both universities, but I won't get into that argument here.

I have an interesting situation to tell everyone about. I have a South African friend I met while attending my lecture and he just emigrated here recently, about a year or two ago. He's actually afraid of Liberal policy because he feels as a white immigrant from a second/third world country, he won't get the same priority in terms of job priority as non-whites. I found that comment interesting...

It's the same thing in the States when you look at the voting districts. There isn't a red vs. blue state divide. What you see is a blue city, surrounded by a sea of red. Just remember, the American system system (or ours) is backwards. Red=Republican, Blue=Democrat.

Another reason though that immigrants tend to congregate in large urban centres is opportunities. There are way fewer opportunities in the regional rural centres than the big metropolises of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.

Cities generally have a higher percentage of well educated people. Well-educated people tend to be more left-leaning. Simple.

You don't really believe that story do you?

Now i wouldn't want to speculate who is smarter and whatnot.

But with cities you got the bigger jobs and such, and that is where corporations are located. So, actually you would expect them to be conservative wouldn't you.

Or maybe the ones who run the corporations are conservative, while the little workers are socialist.

I always thought the concentration of "poor" and "working poor" was higher in cities than in the country side. I don't think this is a matter of education, because if it is then that blows the equality of the public education system out of the water.

I've heard what Pasta said before, I just didn't think anyone believed it.

True there is the poor.

However, i also think that school children get taught differently. Because i was doing a course where it says that areas that are of importance to Quebec, Maritimes, Ontario, urban-rural, are touched on more often in these particular regions than a general topic.

Jay, it's common sense. How many high-tech firms are there in rural Saskatchewan vs Toronto? How about Universities? Colleges?

Cities tend to have the jobs that require advanced education. I'm not going to do all the research for you. You try to prove me wrong. I'll give you some hints though.
Go to the Statistics Canada website and compare % of people with various levels of post-secondary education by municipality , compared to the country as a whole. They're higher in cities. Compare the % of people with higher education in provinces and compare to the level of urbanization (you'll find a chart in today's Dose magazine, as it happens). The relationship holds. it holds for the US and Europe, too. Everyone knows this.

Right-wingers don't like this because they think it makes them seem stupid, but intelligence and education , while correlated, are not causally tied.

Fact is, the more you learn, the less you believe in absolutes. Fanatical religions do best in uneducated regions of the planet.

I don't know of any statistics that directly bear out a lack of education and Conservative voting trends in Canada, but I believe it's well-accepted in the US that Democrats are, on the whole, better educated than Republicans.

I think the rhetoric of "elitist" and "cloistered intellectuals" on the right is a general acknowledgement by the Right that their constituency is less likely to be university-educated, hence the implicit contempt for learning, but I admit it's not evidence.

Edited to add:
--, which doesn't work . Anyway, go to the home page, find Statistics by subject and choose "Education" it's all there.

Thanks, Pasta.

A good example of this in the States is New Orleans, Louisiana, the area immediately around New Orleans is Red but New Orleans votes Democrat=Blue. When Katrina hit, the reds, I feel did not immediately connect with the suburban Blues until the calamity had overwelmed them!

Most cities are made up of working Poor now with the well to do off in the sububurbs. Montreal is classic like New Olreans, central city is working folks With the Suburbs having the high tech jobs and higher paying stuff.

Hey Jay, as it happens, the rural/urban breakdowns by province don't back up my claims about voting preferences and degrees of urbanization above, even taking into account the fact that Albertans are nuts :P.

I'd interpret that to mean that differences in inter-provincial voting trends are distinct for more important reasons than their urban-rural makeup.

"Never believe anything until it's been officially denied."

I think because of FPP it would be more interesting to simply see the Conservative percentage by riding overlaid on the country as a color map. Then we might form more insight into voting patterns than simply seat wins.

Or you could ask people here why they voted the way they did. I live in Ottawa, and I consider myself pretty much in the center of the Canadian political spectrum. Which means left of the Conservatives.

Main reason I voted against the Conservatives.

GST cut publicity stunt. This is a bad cut for just about anyone making sub 100K a year, but it is a popular cut for those not paying attention. This is not the kind of cut I would expect from an economist. This is the number one reason.

Devolution of powers. Some of this may be good but with no indication of the details planned here, this may go overboard. I would not give them a blank check on this one.

Regressive social policy. You know I was proud to be a Canadian the day we ratified equal rights for gay people. It is largely symbolic for me, since I don't know anyone that is openly gay, but this is a clear trend in the world and I was glad to see Canada at the forefront of this human rights endeavor. You can lump in Marijuana re-criminalization in here. This is something that should be on the same legal footing as alcohol. Add in the Continual tap dance around a womans right to choose. Taken together this adds up to paternalistic government that will try to legislate its morality. This is not fear as orginally postulated, but a difference social philosophy.

It is unlikely I will ever vote conservative now. I voted for Mulroney in both his terms, but over the years the consevatives moved right and I moved left. Which may have been caused by getting a university education (known hotbed of the left) and living in the city for more than 10 years now.

The wealthy and well educated..... may have started off in the large cities after graduation with a degree in order to establish their base..... but later in life, they become more conservative as they accumulate their personal portfolio rather than allowing the government to make its own demands....

And the really wealthy don't need to congregate "near the jobs" within a major city at all....they have people to do that for them and prefer to remain in the suburbs - rarely making it into their corporate offices.