A new poll finds that more than half of Canadians think a Conservative majority government would be a good thing for the country and surprisingly one-in-four traditional Liberals supporters feel the same way.
The poll, which was conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail by the Strategic Counsel on Jan. 14 and 15, found that 55 per cent of voters believe electing a Conservative majority government would be a healthy outcome for the country (in per cent; total good/ total bad / do-not-know, not applicable, refused to answer):
Quebec: 64-30-6
West: 59-28-13
Canada: 55-35-10
Rest of Canada: 51-37-12
Ontario: 45-45-10
"What's interesting is how strong it is in the province of Quebec," pollster Tim Woolstencroft told CTV.ca on Monday.
Of those polled in the province, 64 per cent said they felt a Conservative majority would be good for the nation, which is even higher than in the West where 59 per cent of voters like the idea. Only in the Liberal stronghold of Ontario, does a minority, 45 per cent, of voters believe a Conservative majority would be a good idea.
"Ontarians are saying, 'Whoa, we're still not sure'," Woolstencroft said.
On a national level, it comes as no surprise that 87 per cent of Conservatives believe a Tory majority would be a good idea.
In what could signal Tory gains for Quebec, 60 per cent of Bloc voters appear unafraid of Conservative majority.
Strategic Counsel Chairman Allan Gregg believes this means Bloc supporters are open to being courted by Harper.
The pollster said the desires of Quebec nationalists align with some of Harper's policies, which include policies such as delivering more taxing power to provincial governments.
In what comes as another surprising twist, 30 per cent of NDP supporters say a Tory majority would be a good thing, while 26 per cent of voters who have parked their support with the Liberals feel the same way.
Overall, the prospect of a Conservative majority government "isn't causing a lot of people to get uncomfortable," Woolstencroft said.
On issues of impressions and trust, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper continues to maintain an advantage over Liberal Leader Paul Martin.
Support numbers
The national support numbers are based on tracking polling. The sampling was done on January 12, 14 and 15.
Nationally, the Conservatives are maintaining the 40-27 lead over the Liberals that emerged in a poll released Sunday night. The other parties' national support remained the same (NDP, 16 per cent; Bloc Quebecois, 11 per cent; Greens, 6 per cent).
In Canada outside Quebec, the Tories lead the Liberals 44-30.
There has been some slight movement in Quebec (percentage point change from the Jan. 11-12, 14 poll in brackets):
Bloc Quebecois: 45 per cent (+2)
Conservatives: 27 per cent (+1)
Liberals: 17 per cent (unchanged)
NDP: 8 per cent (-1)
Greens: 3 per cent (-2)
In Ontario, the race has tightened up slightly (percentage point change from the Jan. 11-12, 14 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 38 per cent (-2)
Liberals: 34 per cent (+1)
NDP: 20 per cent (+1)
Greens: 8 per cent (unchanged)
In the Greater Toronto Area, which includes the 416 and 905 area codes, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied (percentage point change from the Jan. 11-12, 14 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 37 per cent (unchanged)
Liberals: 36 per cent (-4)
NDP: 19 per cent (+3)
Greens: 8 per cent (+1)
To show how much the Liberals have fallen, they were at 50 per cent support in the GTA in pre-Christmas polls and captured 55 per cent support there in the 2004 election.
In southwestern and eastern Ontario (the 519 and 613 area codes), the Conservatives still hold a clear lead, but it's shrunk somewhat (percentage point change from the Jan. 11-12, 14 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 38 per cent (-4)
Liberals: 32 per cent (+4)
NDP: 21 per cent (+1)
Greens: 9 per cent (unchanged)
On the Prairies, there has been no significant movement. The Tories hold a 43-point lead over the Liberals.
There is no significant movement from Sunday's poll in B.C.'s numbers, where the Tories hold a 42-31 lead.
Technical notes
Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.
Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three-day period. Interviews were conducted between Jan. 12, 14 and 15.
For the tracking poll, the sample size and margin of error (with the margin of error in brackets) for each region are as follows for the popularity and momentum questions:
Canada: 1,500 (2.5)
Quebec: 370 (5.1)
Rest of Canada: 1,129 (2.9)
Ontario: 568 (4.1)
GTA (416/905): 236 (6.4)
Outside GTA: 332 (5.4)
Prairies: 246 (6.3)
British Columbia: 200 (7.0 per cent)
Here are sample sizes for the Jan. 14-15 polling (margin of error in brackets):
Canada: 1,000 (3.1)
Quebec: 247 (6.3)
Rest of Canada: 753 (3.6)
Ontario: 379 (5.0)
West: 297 (5.7)
Q. (party support) If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
Q. (party support) In that case, which party's candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time? Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
Q. (leader impressions) Generally speaking, would you say your overall impression of (READ AND ROTATE) is very favourable, somewhat favourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable?
Q. (trust) Which one would you trust most to be the Prime Minister of Canada?
Q. (Tory majority) If a Conservative majority government is elected would it be very good, good, bad or very bad for the country?
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