Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,838 
Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
January 15th, 2006, 09:08 PM
SES Research January 14
Liberal: 30
Conservative: 38
NDP: 17
BLOC: 10
Green: 6
The Conservatives are declining. Good, since all the gaffes they have been doing recently. About homo-sexuality, Harpers past comments, and their economic forcast which means they are not interested in their promises or they will lead Canada into debt.
Sadly, the NDP isn't rising in its place because from what I have heard in the past 12 hours, neither the Conservatives or Liberals deserve to govern.
I think we can see some changes in the polls in a few days.
SES Research January 14
Liberal: 30
Conservative: 38
NDP: 17
BLOC: 10
Green: 6
The Conservatives are declining. Good, since all the gaffes they have been doing recently. About homo-sexuality, Harpers past comments, and their economic forcast which means they are not interested in their promises or they will lead Canada into debt.
Sadly, the NDP isn't rising in its place because from what I have heard in the past 12 hours, neither the Conservatives or Liberals deserve to govern.
I think we can see some changes in the polls in a few days.
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 4,465
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
January 15th, 2006, 09:11 PM
In my opinion, I think that Canadians are going to see a tightening-up of the numbers between the Conservative Party of Canada and the Liberal Party of Canada leading up to the day of the election.
The reality of the type of stark and sweeping changes that we might see under a Conservative Government may be setting in.
In my opinion, I think that Canadians are going to see a tightening-up of the numbers between the Conservative Party of Canada and the Liberal Party of Canada leading up to the day of the election.
The reality of the type of stark and sweeping changes that we might see under a Conservative Government may be setting in.
Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,838
Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
January 15th, 2006, 09:15 PM
I'm glad I have already voted so I can sit back and just watch the numbers.
And I do agree, I think by next monday, it would probably be a 3-4 point difference at most. And I think the NDP could go to 20% or more.
I'm glad I have already voted so I can sit back and just watch the numbers.
And I do agree, I think by next monday, it would probably be a 3-4 point difference at most. And I think the NDP could go to 20% or more.
Member
Posts: 179
January 15th, 2006, 09:23 PM
Jersay - Funny, these riding-by-riding polls (up to today) paint a different picture...
http://www.democraticspace.com/blog/
If you look at it closely, you'll note that they now project the Conservatives picking up 2 more seats than they were projecting on Saturday.
Riding-by-riding polls are much better indicators of possible electoral results than simple nation-wide percentage support. For example, while the Conservatives are currently only slated to get 38% of the vote, they're also currently slated to get 44% of the seats in the House of Commons.
What "gaffes" have the Conservatives made? I have not heard of any. Ancient political comments aren't "gaffes" in the present tense, Jersay.
Jersay - Funny, these riding-by-riding polls (up to today) paint a different picture...
http://www.democraticspace.com/blog/
If you look at it closely, you'll note that they now project the Conservatives picking up 2 more seats than they were projecting on Saturday.
Riding-by-riding polls are much better indicators of possible electoral results than simple nation-wide percentage support. For example, while the Conservatives are currently only slated to get 38% of the vote, they're also currently slated to get 44% of the seats in the House of Commons.
What "gaffes" have the Conservatives made? I have not heard of any. Ancient political comments aren't "gaffes" in the present tense, Jersay.
Member
Posts: 179
January 15th, 2006, 09:25 PM
Quoting
I disagree. The Liberals have done absolutely nothing to deserve gaining a rise in the polls. If anything, they deserve to lose support to the NDP. For well over a week now, the Conservatives have enjoyed a steady 8 point lead (or more) over the Liberals. A percentage point here or there means nothing unless it leads to a broader trend. Short of the NDP imploding, I see no reason for any upward trend for the Liberals to continue.
I'm glad I have already voted so I can sit back and just watch the numbers.
And I do agree, I think by next monday, it would probably be a 3-4 point difference at most. And I think the NDP could go to 20% or more.
And I do agree, I think by next monday, it would probably be a 3-4 point difference at most. And I think the NDP could go to 20% or more.
Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,838
Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
January 15th, 2006, 09:28 PM
The gaffes are, looking to get rid of the 5.2 billion dollars signed between the Aboriginal People and ottawa, no new agreement. Next, having a candidate say that this is a campaign for the moral against the immoral (same-sex marriage), and telling reports to "piss off". And finally to top it off, having an economist who supported their platform say that they left two important promises off the platform for him to calculate which deals with fiscal imbalance which means that they will not keep their promises, or they will led us into debt.
Quote:
Nearly 50% of the House with only 38% of the vote. The system needs to be changed.
Jersay - Funny, these riding-by-riding polls (up to today) paint a different picture...
http://www.democraticspace.com/blog/
If you look at it closely, you'll note that they now project the Conservatives picking up 2 more seats than they were projecting on Saturday.
Riding-by-riding polls are much better indicators of possible electoral results than simple nation-wide percentage support. For example, while the Conservatives are currently only slated to get 38% of the vote, they're also currently slated to get 44% of the seats in the House of Commons.
What "gaffes" have the Conservatives made? I have not heard of any. Ancient political comments aren't "gaffes" in the present tense, Jersay.
http://www.democraticspace.com/blog/
If you look at it closely, you'll note that they now project the Conservatives picking up 2 more seats than they were projecting on Saturday.
Riding-by-riding polls are much better indicators of possible electoral results than simple nation-wide percentage support. For example, while the Conservatives are currently only slated to get 38% of the vote, they're also currently slated to get 44% of the seats in the House of Commons.
What "gaffes" have the Conservatives made? I have not heard of any. Ancient political comments aren't "gaffes" in the present tense, Jersay.
The gaffes are, looking to get rid of the 5.2 billion dollars signed between the Aboriginal People and ottawa, no new agreement. Next, having a candidate say that this is a campaign for the moral against the immoral (same-sex marriage), and telling reports to "piss off". And finally to top it off, having an economist who supported their platform say that they left two important promises off the platform for him to calculate which deals with fiscal imbalance which means that they will not keep their promises, or they will led us into debt.
Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,838
Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
January 15th, 2006, 09:31 PM
So, in a minority parliment if something is pulled, then the government can fall and it can repeat the process.
Quote:
That is how I feel the polls are going. If it was me, and the NDP poll numbers would rise, then I would be happy with the Liberals at the point they are or worst. However, there needs to be a balance to ensure a minority government in this time period where you have both sides saying the other will destory Canada, either through their values or through their corruption.
I disagree. The Liberals have done absolutely nothing to deserve gaining a rise in the polls. If anything, they deserve to lose support to the NDP. For well over a week now, the Conservatives have enjoyed a steady 8 point lead (or more) over the Liberals. A percentage point here or there means nothing unless it leads to a broader trend. Short of the NDP imploding, I see no reason for any upward trend for the Liberals to continue.
So, in a minority parliment if something is pulled, then the government can fall and it can repeat the process.
Member
Posts: 179
January 15th, 2006, 09:31 PM
Barring a NDP implosion (which is unlikely given Layton's smooth campaigning over the weekend), there will be no 'tightening-up' of the numbers between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Paul Martin has made himself look like a complete laughingstock for the most important part of the campaign - first the eliminate the notwithstanding clause issue coming out of nowhere in the middle of a debate, then the military ad, then the pathetic attempt at damage control made by the Liberals over that military ad when the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and another Liberal Cabinet member couldn't even keep their story straight.
The Liberals deserve less than 30% support. They should be thankful if they maintain that.
Quoting
And what 'stark' and 'sweeping' changes would that include? Instead of simple innuendo, and posturing, do you have anything concrete to point out?
In my opinion, I think that Canadians are going to see a tightening-up of the numbers between the Conservative Party of Canada and the Liberal Party of Canada leading up to the day of the election.
The reality of the type of stark and sweeping changes that we might see under a Conservative Government may be setting in.
The reality of the type of stark and sweeping changes that we might see under a Conservative Government may be setting in.
Barring a NDP implosion (which is unlikely given Layton's smooth campaigning over the weekend), there will be no 'tightening-up' of the numbers between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Paul Martin has made himself look like a complete laughingstock for the most important part of the campaign - first the eliminate the notwithstanding clause issue coming out of nowhere in the middle of a debate, then the military ad, then the pathetic attempt at damage control made by the Liberals over that military ad when the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and another Liberal Cabinet member couldn't even keep their story straight.
The Liberals deserve less than 30% support. They should be thankful if they maintain that.
Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,838
Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
January 15th, 2006, 09:33 PM
Quote:
I agree if the NDP can gain more support, and it doesn't lead to the Conservatives gaining at the NDP expense.
Barring a NDP implosion (which is unlikely given Layton's smooth campaigning over the weekend), there will be no 'tightening-up' of the numbers between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Paul Martin has made himself look like a complete laughingstock for the most important part of the campaign - first the eliminate the notwithstanding clause issue coming out of nowhere in the middle of a debate, then the military ad, then the pathetic attempt at damage control made by the Liberals over that military ad when the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and another Liberal Cabinet member couldn't even keep their story straight.
The Liberals deserve less than 30% support. They should be thankful if they maintain that.
The Liberals deserve less than 30% support. They should be thankful if they maintain that.
Member
Posts: 103
Location: Rexburg, Idaho
Location: Rexburg, Idaho
January 15th, 2006, 09:34 PM
Don't want to start an argument over this, but hasn't CPAC only had the Conservatives at best 9% ahead of the liberals? So now since they are 8% ahead in the most recent poll, that says absolutely nothing, since the margin of error in these polls is 2.2% (correct me if im wrong). THe CPAC poll one day had the libs ahead of the cons by around 20% in atlantic canada, and then the next day they were tied. Anyways, I don't see the lead anything below 5-6% for the Cons, unless something drastic happens in this coming week.
Don't want to start an argument over this, but hasn't CPAC only had the Conservatives at best 9% ahead of the liberals? So now since they are 8% ahead in the most recent poll, that says absolutely nothing, since the margin of error in these polls is 2.2% (correct me if im wrong). THe CPAC poll one day had the libs ahead of the cons by around 20% in atlantic canada, and then the next day they were tied. Anyways, I don't see the lead anything below 5-6% for the Cons, unless something drastic happens in this coming week.
Member
Posts: 179
January 15th, 2006, 09:37 PM
The second is a genuine gaffe (and an awfully stupid one), though I heard of it here first. Do you have a link (I'd like to know who the candidate is out of simple curiousity)?
The third one is a mis-step comparable to Martin leaving out his notwithstanding clause policy reversal from the Liberal's Policy Platform.
I can understand Conservative poll numbers dropping somewhat, yes. But it's bizarre that they would go to the Liberals, who deserve the support even less, in my view. I'm hoping that the NDP can gain some traction, but it doesn't seem to be happening yet.
Quoting
The gaffes are, looking to get rid of the 5.2 billion dollars signed between the Aboriginal People and ottawa, no new agreement. Next, having a candidate say that this is a campaign for the moral against the immoral (same-sex marriage), and telling reports to "piss off". And finally to top it off, having an economist who supported their platform say that they left two important promises off the platform for him to calculate which deals with fiscal imbalance which means that they will not keep their promises, or they will led us into debt.
The first is a policy position. A debateable policy position, but a policy position nonetheless. Quote:
Nearly 50% of the House with only 38% of the vote. The system needs to be changed.
Jersay - Funny, these riding-by-riding polls (up to today) paint a different picture...
http://www.democraticspace.com/blog/
If you look at it closely, you'll note that they now project the Conservatives picking up 2 more seats than they were projecting on Saturday.
Riding-by-riding polls are much better indicators of possible electoral results than simple nation-wide percentage support. For example, while the Conservatives are currently only slated to get 38% of the vote, they're also currently slated to get 44% of the seats in the House of Commons.
What "gaffes" have the Conservatives made? I have not heard of any. Ancient political comments aren't "gaffes" in the present tense, Jersay.
http://www.democraticspace.com/blog/
If you look at it closely, you'll note that they now project the Conservatives picking up 2 more seats than they were projecting on Saturday.
Riding-by-riding polls are much better indicators of possible electoral results than simple nation-wide percentage support. For example, while the Conservatives are currently only slated to get 38% of the vote, they're also currently slated to get 44% of the seats in the House of Commons.
What "gaffes" have the Conservatives made? I have not heard of any. Ancient political comments aren't "gaffes" in the present tense, Jersay.
The gaffes are, looking to get rid of the 5.2 billion dollars signed between the Aboriginal People and ottawa, no new agreement. Next, having a candidate say that this is a campaign for the moral against the immoral (same-sex marriage), and telling reports to "piss off". And finally to top it off, having an economist who supported their platform say that they left two important promises off the platform for him to calculate which deals with fiscal imbalance which means that they will not keep their promises, or they will led us into debt.
The second is a genuine gaffe (and an awfully stupid one), though I heard of it here first. Do you have a link (I'd like to know who the candidate is out of simple curiousity)?
The third one is a mis-step comparable to Martin leaving out his notwithstanding clause policy reversal from the Liberal's Policy Platform.
I can understand Conservative poll numbers dropping somewhat, yes. But it's bizarre that they would go to the Liberals, who deserve the support even less, in my view. I'm hoping that the NDP can gain some traction, but it doesn't seem to be happening yet.
Member
Posts: 179
January 15th, 2006, 09:41 PM
Jersay - That I can see. I can see the Conservatives dropping, and support slipping to the NDP. At the moment, the NDP are the least gaffe/scandal-plagued party. However, if Liberal support increases significantly, I'd be surprised. Canadians would have to flat-out ignore how bad the Liberals looked (and acted) for the two most important weeks of the campaign (Weeks 6 and 7).
Jersay - That I can see. I can see the Conservatives dropping, and support slipping to the NDP. At the moment, the NDP are the least gaffe/scandal-plagued party. However, if Liberal support increases significantly, I'd be surprised. Canadians would have to flat-out ignore how bad the Liberals looked (and acted) for the two most important weeks of the campaign (Weeks 6 and 7).
Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,838
Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
January 15th, 2006, 09:42 PM
Here's the link.
provided by caracel kid
Quote:
Hopefully it goes to the NDP. And you can't really trust polls anyway, because who do they question in the first place?
I can understand Conservative poll numbers dropping somewhat, yes. But it's bizarre that they would go to the Liberals, who deserve the support even less, in my view. I'm hoping that the NDP can gain some traction, but it doesn't seem to be happening yet.
Here's the link.
Quote:
Sorry, I tried the link, I can't get into it. I am sorry, please ask caracel kid for the link. If you want to see where it comes from.
Tory evasive over comments
Jan. 12, 2006. 11:16 PM
KEVIN MCGRAN
STAFF REPORTER
Conservative candidate Rondo Thomas refused to answer questions yesterday about his comments that describe same-sex marriage issues as a battle between “righteousness” and “immorality.”
“Show some respect,” Thomas said as he drove away from a Star reporter and photographer, refusing to say whether he stood by the comments captured on video last February, and whether he’d been ordered by Conservative party headquarters to remain tight-lipped.
Thomas, an evangelical minister, missed two all-candidates debates this week in Ajax-Pickering just as Liberal incumbent Mark Holland posted Thomas’s video on his campaign website. On the video, Thomas says: “There is going to be a clash of morality views between those who believe in righteousness and those who believe in immorality and when we collide there is going to be conflict.”
Thomas’s campaign manager, Mike Young, said his candidate missed debates Monday and Tuesday because he was at a funeral in eastern Ontario. Thomas was at his home in Ajax yesterday.
The first time, he slowed to pull into his driveway, but saw the reporter and photographer. He led them on a five-minute slow-speed pursuit through a subdivision. Thomas then returned to his home, refusing to answer the door or his phone.
A few minutes later, Young showed up. A casually dressed Thomas emerged from his home with a woman. The pair drove away, at which point Young said Thomas didn’t want to talk because he had “another funeral to attend.” Earlier this week Young said Thomas would address the issue today.
The Tories have been hurt in the past by allegations of intolerance. Tory campaign chair John Reynolds this week told Canadian Press that Harper has made his position on gay marriage clear — he will allow a free vote in the Commons — and if people go beyond that, they do not speak for the party.
Outside a Kingston Rd. strip mall a few blocks east of Thomas’s home, voters in the riding urged him to answer questions on his comments.
“You shouldn’t be running if you’re not giving your views,” said Pickering resident Mary Woodhouse.
A few cars away, Michael Richards echoed those comments as he packed groceries into his truck. “He must be open,” Richards said. “We have burning issues. We need to know whatever you think to determine what you stand for.”
Todd Stephens, emerging with skates from a sports store with his wife and two children said Thomas’s “dubious” views made it even less likely that Stephens would vote for him.
“I can’t speak for Mr. Thomas, but I know for myself it’s important to answer questions,” NDP candidate Kevin Modeste said. “I think whether you agree or disagree, you have to move on.”
Jan. 12, 2006. 11:16 PM
KEVIN MCGRAN
STAFF REPORTER
Conservative candidate Rondo Thomas refused to answer questions yesterday about his comments that describe same-sex marriage issues as a battle between “righteousness” and “immorality.”
“Show some respect,” Thomas said as he drove away from a Star reporter and photographer, refusing to say whether he stood by the comments captured on video last February, and whether he’d been ordered by Conservative party headquarters to remain tight-lipped.
Thomas, an evangelical minister, missed two all-candidates debates this week in Ajax-Pickering just as Liberal incumbent Mark Holland posted Thomas’s video on his campaign website. On the video, Thomas says: “There is going to be a clash of morality views between those who believe in righteousness and those who believe in immorality and when we collide there is going to be conflict.”
Thomas’s campaign manager, Mike Young, said his candidate missed debates Monday and Tuesday because he was at a funeral in eastern Ontario. Thomas was at his home in Ajax yesterday.
The first time, he slowed to pull into his driveway, but saw the reporter and photographer. He led them on a five-minute slow-speed pursuit through a subdivision. Thomas then returned to his home, refusing to answer the door or his phone.
A few minutes later, Young showed up. A casually dressed Thomas emerged from his home with a woman. The pair drove away, at which point Young said Thomas didn’t want to talk because he had “another funeral to attend.” Earlier this week Young said Thomas would address the issue today.
The Tories have been hurt in the past by allegations of intolerance. Tory campaign chair John Reynolds this week told Canadian Press that Harper has made his position on gay marriage clear — he will allow a free vote in the Commons — and if people go beyond that, they do not speak for the party.
Outside a Kingston Rd. strip mall a few blocks east of Thomas’s home, voters in the riding urged him to answer questions on his comments.
“You shouldn’t be running if you’re not giving your views,” said Pickering resident Mary Woodhouse.
A few cars away, Michael Richards echoed those comments as he packed groceries into his truck. “He must be open,” Richards said. “We have burning issues. We need to know whatever you think to determine what you stand for.”
Todd Stephens, emerging with skates from a sports store with his wife and two children said Thomas’s “dubious” views made it even less likely that Stephens would vote for him.
“I can’t speak for Mr. Thomas, but I know for myself it’s important to answer questions,” NDP candidate Kevin Modeste said. “I think whether you agree or disagree, you have to move on.”
provided by caracel kid
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 4,465
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
January 15th, 2006, 09:44 PM
Unless Mr. Thomas' comments are publicly denounced by the Conservative Party of Canada, then I would consider a drop in their support to be quite justifiable. Such comments are unprecedented, unacceptable and simply un-Canadian.
Unless Mr. Thomas' comments are publicly denounced by the Conservative Party of Canada, then I would consider a drop in their support to be quite justifiable. Such comments are unprecedented, unacceptable and simply un-Canadian.
Member
Posts: 179
January 15th, 2006, 09:45 PM
Jersay - Thanks.
Rondo himself probably deserves to lose then.
Hhhmmm... I'm starting to wonder if Harper can keep a lid on the more extreme thinkers in his party. One chink in the Conservative armor like this is no big deal, but a couple more could seriously erode support.
Jersay - Thanks.
Rondo himself probably deserves to lose then.
Hhhmmm... I'm starting to wonder if Harper can keep a lid on the more extreme thinkers in his party. One chink in the Conservative armor like this is no big deal, but a couple more could seriously erode support.
Steven Hawking's Tutor
Posts: 4,838
Location: Independent Palestine
Location: Independent Palestine
January 15th, 2006, 09:46 PM
Quote:
Hopefully it goes to the NDP. I am hoping it goes to the NDP.
Jersay - That I can see. I can see the Conservatives dropping, and support slipping to the NDP. At the moment, the NDP are the least gaffe/scandal-plagued party. However, if Liberal support increases significantly, I'd be surprised. Canadians would have to flat-out ignore how bad the Liberals looked (and acted) for the two most important weeks of the campaign (Weeks 6 and 7).
Ponderous Intellect
Posts: 4,465
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
Videos: 1
Location: Surrey, British Columbia
January 15th, 2006, 09:47 PM
Personally, I am hoping it goes to the Grits! lol, but that's just a matter of party preference, I suppose.
Personally, I am hoping it goes to the Grits! lol, but that's just a matter of party preference, I suppose.
