Latest Poll: Conservatives Lead

[Jersay]

Ipsos-Reid December 30[1]:

Liberal: 32

Conservative: 33

NDP: 18

BLOC: 12

Green: 5

Being a French-Canadian, and a former seperatist when I was in my early-teens, I am glad that the Bloc numbers in Quebec are falling.

 

[the caracal kid]

what are the margins of error on this?

 

[Jersay]

Margin of error 19 out of 20 or 2.5

 

[Nascar_James]

Ipsos-Reid December 30[1]:

Liberal: 32

Conservative: 33

NDP: 18

BLOC: 12

Green: 5

Being a French-Canadian, and a former seperatist when I was in my early-teens, I am glad that the Bloc numbers in Quebec are falling.

Jersay, I'll bet there are many right wing seperatists in Quebec (particularly around the Quebec City area). They will probably split their vote between the CPC and the Bloc. The younger folks will tend to lean more towards the Bloc.

 

[Jersay]

I thought the Bloc was left.

 

[Nascar_James]

I thought the Bloc was left.

Yep, it is Jersay, far left. However there are those who are seperatists and have right wing views as well (good example is Alberta seperatists). Those in Quebec who want to seperate and are right of center, have a tough decision to make come election day. Many around the Quebec city region fall in this category.

EDIT: typo correction

 

[FiveParadox]

Disconcerting Results

Well, that seems somewhat disconcerting to me, as a supporter of the Liberal Party of Canada. Then again, I await the resumption of CPAC-SES Research results; they are my "preferred," so to speak, public opinion research institution.

 

[bluealberta]

Ipsos-Reid December 30[1]:

Liberal: 32

Conservative: 33

NDP: 18

BLOC: 12

Green: 5

Being a French-Canadian, and a former seperatist when I was in my early-teens, I am glad that the Bloc numbers in Quebec are falling.

What I would really like to see is the undecided numbers.

Other than that, it appears that a combination of Liberal ineptitude and a rational, high road, pragmatic campaign by the Conservatives is starting to resonate with voters. Maybe a lot of people think that, indeed, it is Time To Stand Up For Canada.

 

[FiveParadox]

Undecided is Important

Agreed, the Undecided vote is extremely important; then again, even those who did answer the research surveys, there's no guarantee that those are the citizens who are going to show up to vote on the day of the election. In the First-Past-the-Post system, things can change in a heartbeat.

 

[bluealberta]

Re: Undecided is Important

Agreed, the Undecided vote is extremely important; then again, even those who did answer the research surveys, there's no guarantee that those are the citizens who are going to show up to vote on the day of the election. In the First-Past-the-Post system, things can change in a heartbeat.

Very true. I also have a suspicion that a lot of Liberal voters may not vote on the 23rd, with the corruption being used as an excuse, and the unwillingness to vote for another party being another. On the other hand, the more it appears that a Conservative victory may occur, there stands to be a lot of conservative voters come out of the woodwork, thus increasing the total votes.

I also think that if it appears the Conservatives may win, the Quebec federalist vote may go to the Conservatives. Quebec voters, for whatever faults they may have, can and do recognise a bandwagon effect and like to be on the side of the victors. Nothing bad with this, just plain old Quebec politics.

 

[FiveParadox]

NDP Vote Matters

One must also consider the supporters of the New Democratic Party in this interesting dynamic. The more and more likely a victory by the Conservative Party may seem on the day of voting (no offensive to Conservative supporters is intended), the more NDP votes may be diverted to a Liberal candidate in order to prevent the mandate being granted to a right-wing party. A few percent of the NDP vote in some electoral districts could make the difference between a Liberal and Conservative minority.

 

[nitzomoe]

If the conservatives do win I certainly hope they can prove that they can "Stand up for Canada" instead of how their former now-demised self acted. The ir colorful history includes the destruction of national industries (AVro Arrow to name 1), GST and the Airbus Scam.

Honestly If they are a good government and can prove themselves in power I would certainly consider them, though this year its red all the way! Im not going to hold them to impossible goals, just what they say they will do :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

 

[FiveParadox]

Conservative Leadership

Once the Liberal Party of Canada is able to clear its name in terms of scandal and corruption, the Conservative Party shall, in my opinion, "lose" some of its supporters to the Liberals. The Conservative Party needs a leader who does not intimidate the public, and who is more "centrist" in terms of social policy. His "right-wing way or the highway" mentality scares people, in my opinion.

 

[bluealberta]

Re: NDP Vote Matters

One must also consider the supporters of the New Democratic Party in this interesting dynamic. The more and more likely a victory by the Conservative Party may seem on the day of voting (no offensive to Conservative supporters is intended), the more NDP votes may be diverted to a Liberal candidate in order to prevent the mandate being granted to a right-wing party. A few percent of the NDP vote in some electoral districts could make the difference between a Liberal and Conservative minority.

True, but if the Liberal voters stay home, the replacement ND voters may not have as big an effect as you anticipate, with the result being fewer ND votes, and more conservative MPs. For instance, hypothetically, lets say that 1000 liberal voters decide not to vote, and 800 ND voters vote strategically for the libs in a riding with a small difference in votes. In this purely hypothetical example, the ND lose 800 votes and the Liberals actually lose 200 votes, with no votes being lost to the Conservatives, giving the conservatives the victory. Simplistic, yes, but on a larger scale, quite plausible. And welcome!!

 

[FiveParadox]

Conservative Majority

With all due respect to supporters of the Conservative Party of Canada, I'm not so sure that a majority of Canadians are prepared to hand over "unabridged" control of the Government to the Conservative Party (meaning, I doubt they are going to receive a majority).

I think that many Canadians would feel more comfortable with the Conservatives if we could have a chance to "see them in action," so to speak, for a "trial period," while still holding the option to remove them through censure if their "right-wing tendencies" overassert themselves.

 

[bluealberta]

Re: Conservative Majority

With all due respect to supporters of the Conservative Party of Canada, I'm not so sure that a majority of Canadians are prepared to hand over "unabridged" control of the Government to the Conservative Party (meaning, I doubt they are going to receive a majority).

I think that many Canadians would feel more comfortable with the Conservatives if we could have a chance to "see them in action," so to speak, for a "trial period," while still holding the option to remove them through censure if their "right-wing tendencies" overassert themselves.

So give them a chance!! The Libs have had 12 years of chances, and look at their results. The ND's will never form a federal government, you and I both know that. If you want to give them a trial period, or if other Canadians do, they have to be given the chance. I have no problem with that.

 

[Jersay]

I don't know where, but all three parties are basically equal to Canadians voters if asked about a minority government. So it seems that as a minority, the Liberals the Conservatives and the NDP would have a chance to rule.

However, as a majority, I believe and I don't remember the link but

52% frowned upon a Liberal Majority

54% frowned upon a NDP Majority

56% frowned upon a Conservative Majority

so it is wide open.

If anyone screws up in the next three weeks, we could see the NDP or the Conservatives or even the Liberals regain momentum.

 

[FiveParadox]

Minority Governments

One must keep in mind that regardless of which party comes out with the most seats after the election, if no party has a clear majority, then the standing Liberal Government of Canada has the first chance to govern, even if the Conservative Party of Canada has more seats than the Government. It will be interesting to see how the Thirty-ninth Parliament is going to come together.

 

[Jersay]

Acknowledged, but if the Libs screw up and somehow the vote goes to the NDP and they somehow get enough seats to beat the Cons and Libs, then I don't think the NDP would allow the Libs or Cons to govern. I don't know though.

 

[Finder]

Here's a good one on the liberal ads from the NDP home page

http://www.ndp.ca/page/2121