Canadian Opposition Tries to Force Early Election


Nascar_James
#1
Martin's being a fraidy cat ... and it's all over the international news ...

Three polls published over the weekend gave the Liberals a lead of 3 to 6 percentage points over the Conservatives.

Read on ...

--


Quote:

Reuters:

Canada opposition tries to force early election
Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:59 PM ET

By Randall Palmer
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's three opposition parties threatened on Sunday to bring down the minority Liberal government this month if Prime Minister Paul Martin did not agree to their demands for a February election.

But Martin's team dismissed their demand as insincere and dared them to go ahead and topple the government and accept the consequences of an election campaign spanning the Christmas season.

"If the opposition wish to force an earlier election, that is their choice. They can bring forward a motion of non-confidence. They will win that vote and there will be a Christmas election," a Martin aide said.

"This is not a sincere gesture on the part of the opposition. It's a game of hot potato where they attempt to frantically hand off responsibility for forcing a Christmas election."

The leaders of the opposition parties overcame past squabbles and met on Sunday afternoon, coming up with a strategy of handing an ultimatum to Martin -- under heavy fire over a government corruption scandal.

"I don't believe this government has the moral authority to govern," said Conservative leader Stephen Harper, who hopes to end 12 years of Liberal rule and replace Martin as prime minister.

The plan is to debate an opposition motion either on Tuesday or Thursday calling for the government to dissolve Parliament in January and set a February election date.

They demanded that Martin make a solemn commitment to meet their demand, or else face an imminent formal confidence motion in Parliament.

If all three parties backed that motion, the Liberals would be defeated and there would be an election in January.

The rapid developments followed a change in heart by New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton, who said last Monday he would no longer be able to support the government in light of an inquiry that concluded Liberals had engaged in an elaborate kickback scheme.

Martin had already pledged to hold an election in April, once the inquiry presented final recommendations on how to avoid similar wrongdoing in future.

The Martin aide said that if the government were brought down, it would mean killing various government measures including energy rebates for poor Canadians.

Layton said it was the first time in history the prime minister had been asked to set an election date. The threat of a non-confidence motion was designed to force him to agree.

The opposition parties are concerned that if an election is delayed until April, public anger over the scandal will have dissipated.

Three polls published over the weekend gave the Liberals a lead of 3 to 6 percentage points over the Conservatives, who have not held federal office since 1993.

If the poll results held through the election, the Liberals would likely form the government again but fail to regain their majority in Parliament.

 
no1important
#2
Whoopey doo. The libs will still win a miniority. By the time we get to an election the Libs as usual will be further ahead than they are now. The one thing about the grits is they know how to win elections.
 
Nascar_James
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by no1important

Whoopey doo. The libs will still win a miniority. By the time we get to an election the Libs as usual will be further ahead than they are now. The one thing about the grits is they know how to win elections.

If the opposition does indeed force an early election this year, which is very likely, I hope folks will vote for the party they really identify with, no1. Example, NDP'ers should stick with their heart and vote NDP.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
Avatar
#4
Quote: Originally Posted by Nascar_James

Quote: Originally Posted by no1important

Whoopey doo. The libs will still win a miniority. By the time we get to an election the Libs as usual will be further ahead than they are now. The one thing about the grits is they know how to win elections.

If the opposition does indeed force an early election this year, which is very likely, I hope folks will vote for the party they really identify with, no1. Example, NDP'ers should stick with their heart and vote NDP.

still trying to TELL US what to do and how to do it , are ya??? Concern yourself with your own backyard .... sheesh.. Our politics do not affect the US to the same degree that the US politics affect Canada and the world.
 
Jo Canadian
Avatar
#5
Quote:

still trying to TELL US what to do and how to do it , are ya??? Concern yourself with your own backyard ....

Let's not forget how many times we (as in most of us) said that Bush should be voted out, or if we were americans..... Either way I'm sure 2 cents from anyone shouldn't hurt.
 
Nascar_James
#6
Quote: Originally Posted by Ocean Breeze

Quote: Originally Posted by Nascar_James

Quote: Originally Posted by no1important

Whoopey doo. The libs will still win a miniority. By the time we get to an election the Libs as usual will be further ahead than they are now. The one thing about the grits is they know how to win elections.

If the opposition does indeed force an early election this year, which is very likely, I hope folks will vote for the party they really identify with, no1. Example, NDP'ers should stick with their heart and vote NDP.

still trying to TELL US what to do and how to do it , are ya??? Concern yourself with your own backyard .... sheesh.. Our politics do not affect the US to the same degree that the US politics affect Canada and the world.

Well, it appears Canadians are concerning themselves with US politics (and to a great deal I might say), so I'm merely returning the favor and concerning myself with Canadian politics, Ocean.

You don't have to thank me ... glad to be of service.

Actually, judging by the threads on this forum, it seems Canadians are more preoccupied with US politics than Canadian politics as of late. Unusual....
 
Nascar_James
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by Jo Canadian

Quote:

still trying to TELL US what to do and how to do it , are ya??? Concern yourself with your own backyard ....

Let's not forget how many times we (as in most of us) said that Bush should be voted out, or if we were americans..... Either way I'm sure 2 cents from anyone shouldn't hurt.

Good point, Jo. Politics on either side of the border affects both countries to a great extent.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
Avatar
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by Jo Canadian

Quote:

still trying to TELL US what to do and how to do it , are ya??? Concern yourself with your own backyard ....

Let's not forget how many times we (as in most of us) said that Bush should be voted out, or if we were americans..... Either way I'm sure 2 cents from anyone shouldn't hurt.


this is why I added the fact that Ca politics does not affect the US the way the US politics affects us here and the world. Was not only Ca that would have wanted to see bush out......but most of the rest of the world. Remember ??? Seems the whole world is involved in the US "elections " now... and that is the US own doing.

but it is more the ongoing principle of the US telling others what to do .......as opposed to suggesting in a mature , intelligent manner.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
Avatar
#9
Quote:

Actually, judging by the threads on this forum, it seems Canadians are more preoccupied with US politics than Canadian politics as of late. Unusual....



dang it........the whole world is "preoccupied with US politics as of late.........and justifiably so. We just don't have many members from overseas here to demonstrate the degree of "interest" they have. More international members would add a great deal to this forum.
 
Nascar_James
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by Ocean Breeze

More international members would add a great deal to this forum.

Ahemmm ... of course. That's why you have us Americans on this forum.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
Avatar
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Nascar_James

Quote: Originally Posted by Ocean Breeze

More international members would add a great deal to this forum.

Ahemmm ... of course. That's why you have us Americans on this forum.

well........permit me to draw you a verbal diagram........I meant from Europe and Asia .....

..........would really like to see some people from Iraq on here too. I have seen some forums with Iraqi input...... quite an eye opener.
 
yballa09
#12
There has always been a great deal of interest by the international community towards the USA, ever since they became a world power. Their current situation doesnt change that. Yes, people are much mroe vocal about it now, but lots of that has to do with globalization and easy access to media sources, internet, etc. I mean, the war in Iraq isnt the first time some of the international community have disagreed with the US.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
#13
Quote:

You don't have to thank me ... glad to be of service.

 
Reverend Blair
#14
Quote:

Martin's being a fraidy cat ... and it's all over the international news ...

Three polls published over the weekend gave the Liberals a lead of 3 to 6 percentage points over the Conservatives.

The problem with you trying to talk Canadian politics is that you don't really understand it, James. Have you looked at the seat projections based on the latest polls? They have the Conservatives losing four seats. Actually, they lose a lot more than that, but gain them back in other places.

You know who's being the "fraidy (sic) cat" here? It's Harper. He knows he hasn't got the numbers and he knows that the Liberals will pick up over time. Harper stands to lose more than 4 seats in total.

Layton stands to gain as many as 18 seats right now and stands to lose only 1. He too knows that those numbers likely won't hold over the course of an election though. Today's projections say 37 total seats, but by election day it will stand somewhere between 25 and 30. That's still a pretty large gain, certainly better than what the Conservatives stand to lose.

The BQ will pick up a couple and that's the only thing that's unlikely to change.

The Liberals stand to lose some, but they would still be a minority government by a long shot. The Liberals spent all weekend basically challenging the opposition to bring them down. They want an election over x-mas because they know they will win and they know that election fatigue will set in the next time the Conservatives and Bloq bring down the government. Martin can't call an election until after the final Gomery Report though. That's the promise he made and if he breaks it he will crucified.
 
#juan
No Party Affiliation
Avatar
#15
I fail to see what possible advantage

forcing an early election can be for the opposition parties. I am particularly dissappointed in Layton. If Layton is seen as the instigator of the early election, the people will make him pay. The conservatives have been behind in almost all the polls and can't possibly win a majority with Harper at the helm. The Bloc are pretty cocky these days because the polls suggest that the bloc would gain a few seats if an election were forced now.

THe irony is that a federal election costs at least a couple hundred million or more, which turns out to be very close to the final costs of the sponsership scandal and we will have changed very little in the political geography of the country. It will still probably give us a minority government that will be forced into yet another election in two years or less with yet another sponsership scandal sized bill that the taxpayers will foot yet again. THere are minority governments all over the world that seem to be able to govern without forcing an election every two years. Forcing an early election is a scandal every bit as bad as the sponsership mess and it will achieve nothing.
 
Reverend Blair
#16
Layton was kind of in a position where he didn't have much choice, Juan. The Liberals weren't willing to protect healthcare and Broadbent's anti-corruption plan had just been rolled out.

The healthcare thing was kind of dictated by what went on in the House. Layton would ask Martin a question on healthcare and Dosanj would answer the question by saying that the Liberals and NDP were the same on healthcare (not true), then use the question to go after Harper. That left the NDP having to differentiate themselves from the Liberals on the issue, which was accomplished by having Martin turn down Layton's offer.

Politically, I think Layton would have done better to try to force the Liberals to adopt the Broadbent plan rather than going to them with healthcare. He could have made the offer in the press and the Liberals would have had to turn it down in full view. It's a much easier issue for most people to grasp. The Conservatives and the BQ would have had to back the NDP, at least in spirit, or look like hypocrites.

The NDP could then have used their opposition day to introduce Broadbent's plan as a bill and try to get it passed. Anybody who voted against the bill would have had to say why, Layton wouldn't have been trying to swing a deal with Martin, and the Conservative plan would have been shown to be flawed.

Hindsight may be 20/20, but given the press that Gomery is getting, the rhetoric coming from the right, and the complexity of healthcare issues vs the relative simplicity of the Broadbent plan, I think that would have been a better move.
 
no1important
#17
I just heard on Radio the opposition is going to let "Martins mini Budget" pass today.
 
TenPenny
Avatar
#18
I notice that the media and the various parties seem to want to avoid a preChristmas election. You know why? For their own convenience. As a typical voter, it couldn't make any difference to me; the only date I need to worry about is the day I need to go to the polling station. But the candidates and reporters don't want their holidays ruined.
 
#juan
No Party Affiliation
Avatar
#19
I believe Layton still has choices better

than forcing an election that will change nothing but the number of Bloc seats in Quebec. There will still be a minority government and the NDP will probably have fewer seats than they do now.

I suppose waiting for the rest of the Gomery report might put the Liberals in little better position but that is just a wild guess. I think the only thing that will bring about significant change, is for the Conservatives to find themselves another leader and a more transparent platform.

THe Liberals would be crazy to give in to this blackmail. THey have already said when they will call an election. We know the electorate always punishes those who force an early election, and nobody wants an election over the holidays.
 
manda
#20
Especially when the fool pushing for the election is an unliked Stephan Harper....Yeah, like his popularity will really improve because of this...arrgh, the man is such an idiot. I want to know who ties his shoes and allows him into the public eye
 
Jo Canadian
Avatar
#21
It's funny how both sides see the situation at hand. I Found a couple of toons regarding Laytons moves. You can see the suttle difference between the conservative leaning cartoonists and the Liberal ones:


Liberal:





Conservative

 
#juan
No Party Affiliation
Avatar
#22

LAUGHING AT LAYTON

By Simon Tudiver
November 11, 2005


As Canada’s political leaders continue to spar over the details of a looming federal election, the media seem to be getting almost as fed up as Canadians, offering up pointed criticism and tongue-in-cheek reports. The politicians keep debating the same questions: how soon will an election come? Will there be time to finish the Christmas turkey? Who will be the one responsible for pushing Canadians to the polls and what kind of rope will they use to string him up with after they’ve tarred and feathered his nicely pressed suit? The Globe leads with a straight story on the latest offensive from the Conservatives who are promising to block Finance Minister Ralph Goodale’s economic update planned for next week. Stephen Harper is decrying the “mini-budget” as an early campaign move; he’s incensed the Liberals would try to buy Canadian votes with news of a big surplus.

But the issue that has grabbed commentators is that of election timing. Earlier this week, Jack Layton proposed a scheme that would withdraw opposition support from the government without actually putting it to a non-confidence vote. The idea was to force the Liberals into triggering the election themselves, preferably after the holiday season. The CBC’s Terry Milewski filed an amusing report which noted that Layton’s proposal would end up pushing the election into the middle of the Chinese New Year, sparking ire in the Chinese community and, Milewski speculates, possibly at home (Layton’s wife is of Chinese descent). The National’s “At Issue” panel picked apart Layton’s move, concluding the NDP leader may have played right into the hands of the Liberals by merely adding another voice to the chorus debating procedural rhetoric. The Globe’s Brian Laghi suggests that “Canadians have become so cynical of politicians’ motives that they no longer see a big difference in the ethical behaviour of the opposition and the government.” Could that mean that Canadians might actually care about substantive issues rather than petty politics? MediaScout hopes the politicians are reading the critical undertones in today’s media coverage. Thankfully, they still have time to develop a real platform before the ballots are cast.
 
Reverend Blair
#23
These are seat projections from two separate sites. The projections are based on polling in various areas. They might give some insight into why the various parties are doing what they're doing.

--

11/03/05
Conservatives 106
Liberals 94
BQ 66
NDP 42
Other 0

http://www.democraticspace.com/canad...election.shtml

IND
11/12/05 11/10/05 11/4/05
LIB 111 121 88
CPC 95 93 110
NDP 37 35 43
GRN
BQ 65 59 67
OTH
 
Nascar_James
#24
Polls can't be trusted, Rev. If we were to attempt to guess who would win based on polls, it would be similar to flipping a coin.

Example, if one were to guess by polls on this thread, you would think the NDP would win. Polls can be misleading.
 
#juan
No Party Affiliation
Avatar
#25
What I see as a danger Rev, is Harper teaming with the Bloc for a majority government. If the numbers are as your polls suggest, it will happen. It is the only way that Harper will become PM.
 
Nascar_James
#26
Interesting point, Juan. French speaking Quebeckers generally don't care which party (liberal/conservative) holds power, they will vote with the party most sympathetic to separation. This was demonstrated when they voted en masse for Mulroney. A CPC/Bloc Union would be just what Harper needs. Plus, his argument on decentalizing more power to the provinces (which is good ... going towards a US approach) is popular both out west and in Quebec. Not to mention that seperation is popular to both Albertans and Quebeckers.
 
no1important
#27
Popular for Albertans? You mean very very vocal miniority.
 
no1important
#28
double post
 
Colpy
Conservative
Avatar
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by Nascar_James

Interesting point, Juan. French speaking Quebeckers generally don't care which party (liberal/conservative) holds power, they will vote with the party most sympathetic to separation. This was demonstrated when they voted en masse for Mulroney. A CPC/Bloc Union would be just what Harper needs. Plus, his argument on decentalizing more power to the provinces (which is good ... going towards a US approach) is popular both out west and in Quebec. Not to mention that seperation is popular to both Albertans and Quebeckers.

Correct, as far as it goes.

The problem with a Conservative/Bloc alliance is two fold:

First of all, it would be permanent political suicide for any party to be seen to be allied with the Bloc. No English Canadian worth his Molson's would ever vote Conservative again. You might get your five year term, but you'd never again be elected. The Bloc wants to destroy Canada, remember. And I actually like Duceppe.

Secondly, the Bloc is a socialist party, in some ways more left than the NDP. Duceppe began his adult life as a convinced Marxist-Leninist. He has certainly modified his position, and is trusted by Harper, who says of him that he always does exactly what he says he will do (unlike Layton). However, the ideological gap is just too wide to bridge.

The simple fact of the matter is that any Conservative minority government will be exceptionally short-lived. The only REAL hope to avoid one-party rule in this unfortunate country is a Conservative majority, which is a long shot to say the least.

Harper has already been well demonized. Just read the comments here in these forums. And it is, unfortunately, all complete BS. Harper is a moderate, a back-room policy wonk. He has taken the Conservatives right down the middle of the road. (in fact, too moderate for me, but I'm hardly mainstream)

He is not good at politicing. He has been trying to play the game, but he ain't good at it. (Whoever told him to smile more should be kicked.....he looks exactly like the shark in Finding Nemo)(who does turn out to be a good guy, but the image......)

Anyway, all I got to say is VOTE CPC, its the best of a soory lot.
 
Reverend Blair
#30
[quote"James"]Polls can't be trusted, Rev. If we were to attempt to guess who would win based on polls, it would be similar to flipping a coin.

Example, if one were to guess by polls on this thread, you would think the NDP would win. Polls can be misleading.[/quote]

That's what the people who don't like poll results always say, James. That you would compare an internet poll to scientific poll carried out by a professional pollster is hilarious though.

These are seat projections though, not polls. These ones are public, but every party runs their own. They do that because it allows them to know where they stand. Now if you were a leader looking at these results, what would you do?




Quote: Originally Posted by Juan

What I see as a danger Rev, is Harper teaming with the Bloc for a majority government. If the numbers are as your polls suggest, it will happen. It is the only way that Harper will become PM.

Such an alliance is unlikely. First of all the polls are headed the other way, so the Liberals will get more seats and the CPC will likely get fewer. More to the point though...the CPC and the BQ don't agree on anything but wanting to bring Martin down. Since neither party has exhibited an ability to compromise, any such alliance would fail almost immediately.

Quote: Originally Posted by Nascar Nero

Interesting point, Juan. French speaking Quebeckers generally don't care which party (liberal/conservative) holds power, they will vote with the party most sympathetic to separation. This was demonstrated when they voted en masse for Mulroney. A CPC/Bloc Union would be just what Harper needs. Plus, his argument on decentalizing more power to the provinces (which is good ... going towards a US approach) is popular both out west and in Quebec. Not to mention that seperation is popular to both Albertans and Quebeckers.

The BQ don't trust Harper with decentralised power though, and the people of Quebec, separatist or not, do not tolerate narrow-minded bigots from Alberta very well. Especially right now since the Harperites have been cranking up the anti-Quebec rhetoric over the last couple of weeks.

Quote: Originally Posted by Colpy

Harper has already been well demonized. Just read the comments here in these forums. And it is, unfortunately, all complete BS. Harper is a moderate, a back-room policy wonk. He has taken the Conservatives right down the middle of the road.

...and here I thought you were about say something based on facts.

The demonization of Harper comes from things that he has done and said in the past. He is a policy wonk, but he's also a right-wing wanker. He has said that he wants private medicine. He has said that we should adopt the US dollar. He has said that we should have gone into Iraq. He has said that we should join BMD. He has said that abortion should be banned. He has said that he would deny same sex couples their constitutional right to marry. He's for deep integration, including border security and our military.

We don't have to demonize Harper, all we have to do is quote him.
 

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