How Canada can weather the storm
By PRESTON MANNING
Thursday, June 30, 2005 Page A21
The Canadian ship of state rides uneasily at anchor, going nowhere because of the minority government situation in Parliament. Even more worrisome is the long-range forecast -- stormy weather ahead that could well sink the ship unless extraordinary precautions are taken.
Liberal corruption rooted in the Adscam scandal and under investigation by the Gomery inquiry has breathed new life into separatist forces in Quebec. In the next federal election, the Bloc Québécois is likely to win even more seats than it did in 1993. And the next provincial election in Quebec could well see the separatist Parti Québécois returned to office unless something can be done to strengthen the hand of the Charest government.
Within the next three years, Canadians could be facing yet another referendum on Quebec separation. But this time, the national government will be much weaker than it was in 1995 -- most likely a minority government with minimal support from Quebec itself and seriously discredited as a champion of federalism by the exposure of its unethical conduct in the last referendum campaign.
Whether the next government in Ottawa is Liberal or Conservative, its capacity to lead the federalist campaign against Quebec separatists will be severely limited. But if it is the Liberals who again are returned to office on the strength of votes from Atlantic Canada and Ontario, not only will Quebec regard this as a gross insult, but Western Canada (Alberta in particular) will also explode with outrage, putting even more strain on the ties that bind our federation together.
So what can be done to strengthen the moorings of the good ship Canada against the gathering storm? Several practical steps come to mind.
First, the opinion leaders of Atlantic Canada and Ontario -- in business, labour, academia and the media -- need to assess the rising tides of disaffection in Quebec and the West, and report their findings. Attempts by Quebec federalists or Western federalists like myself to sound the alarm are generally discounted as "scare mongering" in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. So set up some informal but independent task forces and report what you see to voters in your regions.
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