political earthquake in quebec shuffle election in canada

political earthquake in quebec shuffle election in canada

Cathou

#1Jun 5th, 2005

i dont know if the news have yet goes beyon Quebec frontiers. Bernard Landry, after getting a 76% approval vote by the PQ delegates resign. he quit the political life. Normally it would be an intern news for the quebec. but here's something to think about. Gilles Duceppe would never challenge Bernard Landry. he was too loyal to the PQ. After all without the PQ and the sovernist movement, the bloc wouldnt have a reason to exist. But now the position of leader of the PQ is wide open.

Gilles Duceppe is by far the most popular politician in quebec. Right now all the eyes are turn toward him and everyone hope he take the place. You can bet that he will have lot of pressure within the Bloc and the PQ to push him there. Plus that guy is not without ambitions. after all Charest governement is sinking right to the bottom with a 78% insatisfaction rate, and every poll show that Gilles Duceppe would be the next prime minister of Quebec. and he's very qualified for that. his not a newbe in politic...

that's where i call for the earthquake warning : the Bloc is very popular right now in Quebec, and Duceppe is a major factor for that. If he quit the Bloc, there's a possibility for the Bloc to loose seat in favor of the liberals. With quebec fresh new seat, Paul Martin could remain in power, and even get a majority in the next election. But those votes lost by the Bloc could also mean votes for the NPD that can maybe get a seat or two.

I think that with that news, the next federal election data could be shuffle. what do you think ?

no1important

RE: political earthquake

Jun 5th, 2005

I saw that on the news. I am quite surprised Bernard Landry would want to quit.

I also think Gilles Duceppe should stay where he is, as I believe (as much as I do not approve seperation, it failed twice so how many more times does it have to be tried?) think he is in the best place to promote seperation.

Are there any up and comers you know of in the Bloc or PQ that could take Landry's place?

Reverend Blair

RE: political earthquake

Jun 5th, 2005

Duceppe has been rumoured to be Landry's replacement for a long time now. He will be moving to the PQ eventually, likely soon now. The question is who will become the Bloc's leader? Duceppe has been a show stealer for a while now, who will replace him nationally?

The other issue is that nobody expected Landry to quit. The timing really sucks. Duceppe is a shoe in, but that leaves a hole in the BQ. If Duceppe doesn't run right now, what does that do to whoever takes the leadership? Who wants to be an interim leader who will be chased out before the next election?

Cathou

Re: RE: political earthquake

Jun 5th, 2005

Quote: Originally Posted by Reverend Blair

Duceppe has been rumoured to be Landry's replacement for a long time now. He will be moving to the PQ eventually, likely soon now. The question is who will become the Bloc's leader? Duceppe has been a show stealer for a while now, who will replace him nationally?

The other issue is that nobody expected Landry to quit. The timing really sucks. Duceppe is a shoe in, but that leaves a hole in the BQ. If Duceppe doesn't run right now, what does that do to whoever takes the leadership? Who wants to be an interim leader who will be chased out before the next election?

if Duceppe quit the bloc, i've no idea who will take the lead of that party.

For the PQ, monday, they will elect an interim leader. Usually someone who dont have any leading ambitions, and that know the party very well. Everyone think of Louise Harel right now. Then there will be a leadership campaing probably in september. We know that François Legault and Pauline Marois will try to get it, but honestly they have a lower popularity than Landry...

Reverend Blair

RE: political earthquake

Jun 5th, 2005

Which points back towards Duceppe. But there's a federal election likely to happen in early 2006, and the BQ are going to want an experienced leader to capitalize on Gomery. The wrong leader will not be able to that.

This is a real mess, and could hurt the BQ in the next election. Any seats they don't get will most likely go to the Liberals.

jackd

Re: political earthquake in quebec shuffle election in canad

Jun 5th, 2005

Te best scenario for both the Bloc and the PQ:
Duceppe stays with the Bloc until after the next Federal Election (next fall/winter???)
The PQ elects an interim leader until Duceppe switches to the PQ after the federal elections.

Cathou

Re: political earthquake in quebec shuffle election in canad

Jun 5th, 2005

Quote: Originally Posted by jackd

Te best scenario for both the Bloc and the PQ:
Duceppe stays with the Bloc until after the next Federal Election (next fall/winter???)
The PQ elects an interim leader until Duceppe switches to the PQ after the federal elections.

but officially Marois have already announced that she will try to get the lead. and seriously, they wont give the seat to Duceppe, he must earn it. ThePQ is near it's first leadership campain since 1985, and it's a thing that must be done to get fresh ideas in that party

Reverend Blair

RE: political earthquake

Jun 13th, 2005

Well, Duceppe is staying in Ottawa. That will help the separatist movement on the federal level...Duceppe can bring in more seats than anybody else...but it leaves the provincial part of the movement in a bit of a mess.

DasFX

Re: RE: political earthquake

Jun 14th, 2005

Quote: Originally Posted by Reverend Blair

Well, Duceppe is staying in Ottawa. That will help the separatist movement on the federal level

Exactly how does the Bloc help the separatist movement? I mean should they focus all their attention on the provincial level.

I think him not going will hurt him. It's easy to always oppose and complain, especially when you know you will never really lead. This is the situation of the BQ. They go there to oppose everything. However with the PQ, they get elected from time to time and then are accountable and are expected to lead and run the province. Why is he shying away from this opportunity? Doesn't he know that if he leads them to victory he is a prime candidate to be on the 20 Quebec Franc/Dollar note?

The Bloc could win all 75 seats in Quebec and it would be no closer to separation than before. The Bloc has no power, yields very little influence. Anything that really could further Quebec's separation has to be done in Quebec City and not Ottawa.

If the PQ wins the referendum, the Quebec MPs will be void and will have no vote in Parliament on Quebec Separation or on the possible post split relationship.

Also, most of the time, Quebecers like to keep balance. If they elected a strong separatist voice federally, i think they are less likely to do the same provincially.

Reverend Blair

#10

RE: political earthquake

Jun 14th, 2005

The Bloc pounds the hell out of the federal government every chance it gets. That affects public opinion in Quebec.

They also wield a lot of power as a regional power. The Conservatives have very little chance of getting elected without seats in Quebec. The NDP cannot make inroads in Quebec while the Bloc is garnering much of the left of centre vote. The Liberals have far less chance of getting a majority when the Bloc is taking seats away from them.

All of that combined serves to keep the voices from Quebec that are being most heard to be separatist voices. That helps to keep the press talking about separation...it frames the entire political conversation in terms of Quebec leaving Canada.

DasFX

#11

Re: RE: political earthquake

Jun 14th, 2005

Quote: Originally Posted by Reverend Blair

The Bloc pounds the hell out of the federal government every chance it gets. That affects public opinion in Quebec.

They also wield a lot of power as a regional power. The Conservatives have very little chance of getting elected without seats in Quebec. The NDP cannot make inroads in Quebec while the Bloc is garnering much of the left of centre vote. The Liberals have far less chance of getting a majority when the Bloc is taking seats away from them.

All of that combined serves to keep the voices from Quebec that are being most heard to be separatist voices. That helps to keep the press talking about separation...it frames the entire political conversation in terms of Quebec leaving Canada.

I agree, but does it get them closer to separation? I mean Quebecers are smart enough to realize the the Bloc is going there to cause a raucous and that they really won't co-operate with any other political party. The Bloc is a form of protest, but nothing more. I don't think the Bloc has created any better "winning conditions".

no1important

#12

RE: political earthquake

Jun 14th, 2005

As it stands now if there were a provincial election in Quebec it would not matter who is leading the PQ too much as they would defeat the liberals quite easily.

Are there any other front runners now that Duceppe is staying with Bloc?

Reverend Blair

#13

Re: political earthquake in quebec shuffle election in canad

Jun 14th, 2005

Quote:

I agree, but does it get them closer to separation?

If you ask any political strategist, he or she will you that being the one to frame the conversation is a major part of the battle.

Quote:

I mean Quebecers are smart enough to realize the the Bloc is going there to cause a raucous and that they really won't co-operate with any other political party.

They do cooperate with other political parties though. They consistently make a case that they are doing what is best for Quebec, then support whatever parties are supporting the same position. In effect it usually leaves them controlling the HofC with a minority government.

An example of that is one of the bills being voted on tonight. It is a money bill about the Firearms Registry that the Conservatives have introduced. The Liberals are going to vote against the bill. The Conservatives will vote for it. The NDP are split and traditionally have let their members vote how they want on the Fire Arms Registry. The Bloc could bring down the government on this, but feels that the registry is good for Quebec. As a result, they will support the Liberals.

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