Wow, that's the most bizarre and inaccurate read of the Canadian political scene I've seen yet. It's further out than the people who are predicting Harper will win a majority government. I actually shared a joint with a drug-addled street person who had a better guess than that once...his prediction was that the BQ would win the next election and declare all of Canada part of France.
People think that this schism is permanent.
Which people?
No it isn't. The schism (rhymes with jism) is permanent. There will be a shift that corrects for it at some point, but building a bridge over a gaping hole (I knew a g...nevermind it's a whole other thread) doesn't get rid of the gaping hole.
Right now, there are only one and a half viable parties, the Liberals and the Tories.
Not accurate at all. First of all there are no tories, that party is gone. Second of all, the CPC is not a viable party because they cannot garner credible support in Ontario. They are a 3 month miscarried fetus shriveling under the harsh light of the real world. Third of all, calling the Liberals viable is like claiming that smoking is good for you...the claim has no credibility, but the lack of credibility doesn't mean you'll quit.
Only if "hobbled" means cutting off the horse's legs above the knees.
They can conceivably win a majority government if they elect 70 members from Ontario, but even if they do, it will be a narrow majority.
What was that thing that guy at Woodstock said? Oh yeah, "Don't eat the Brown Acid." The CPC will never elect 70 in Ontario. Their numbers there are dropping like rock every time Harper or one of his ites speaks in public.
But the odds of that happening aren't good.
Roughly the same as me deciding to buy a suit and become a banker.
The Liberal upside is a big majority.
PPPffftt. Nobody wants to vote for them. They've been around for twelve years and their latest leader doesn't even talk funny. They will lose even more seats in Quebec. They will likely lose a couple (although not as many as the CPC) to the NDP. They will lose a few more than that to the CPC.
The Tory upside is, realistically, a minority.
The way their numbers have been dropping, they'll be lucky to remain official opposition.
That means, on average, the Liberals are likely to remain in power.
In Canada? No!!!! What a brave prediction. I predict the sun will not explode tomorrow.
But that's untenable as Canadians don't like like living in a one party state.
Actually, Canadians don't give a flying f*ck. They've pretty much given up on having a leader again, and one corporate hack looks pretty much like the other.
They want at a least a national alternative so they can kick out the National Governing Party and let it lick its wounds from whatever transgression that has befallen it.
No, they want a saviour. They want another Trudeau...not necessarily his policies, but the excitement he brought.
If you look at the big Tory majorities of the past - McDonald, Diefenbaker, Mulroney - they all had one thing in common - big wins in Quebec.
That ain't gonna happen again. Not with these nutbag hillbillies showing up now.
The Tories have only been able to prosper winning the soft nationalist vote in Quebec, which is currently residing in the BQ.
It won't go Conservative anytime soon. It has a better chance of going NDP. Even for that to happen it would require Gilles being caught in bed with the proverbial dead girl or live boy, and I doubt even that would shake things much.
The Tories will eventually win the soft nationalist vote again IF Quebec remains in Canada.
What did that guy say at Woodstock?
That may be 20 years from now, but it will happen.
Not a hope in hell. According to all of the polls on all of the issues this country is moving to the left. This is not a political pendulum swing I'm talking about, but rather basic attitudes. Under those circumstances the Liberals would have to shift drastically to the left, farther than the Liberals are now, to mount a valid charge.
If the CPC is going to win government at all, it will be in the near future, before attitudes can shift further.
The BQ is an accident of history, borne out of frustration of the failure of Meech Lake. If Quebec decides to remain in Canada, then the Bloc will eventually disintegrate. Quebec voters are too smart to be left on the margins forever. And ironically, the disintegration of the Bloc will probably occur after the Liberals crush the BQ in some future election. But that's only if Quebec remains in the country.
The BQ is a political reality borne out of left of centre 3rd party politics and a policy vacuum created by the Mulroney government. They aren't gong anywhere anytime soon.
The merger of the Alliance and the PCs is the beginning of the realignment of the old Tory coalition. Most people saw the merger as a takeover by the old Reform Party. I think that is wrong. The people running the party may have Reform Party roots, but essentially, the Conservative Party is the platform by which the old Tory coalition will realign. As much as I'd like to see Harper PM, its unlikely to happen.
The merger was unsuccessful. It was an attempted takeover, but all the moderate voices are gone from the party. Allthat's left is extremists from the radical right...neocon goofballs too stupid too lay down when they're dead.
Harper and his ites wil never be in charge because they are creepy little freaks who want to tell us who we sleep with, but are afraid to tell tell their corporate masters to piss off.
Then, the Tories will elect someone from the East to lead them and make the party more palatable to voters in Central Canada - McKay, Bernard Lord, Mario Dumont perhaps.
Doubtful. The extremists in the party will not tolerate moderate voices, nevermind putting them in charge. Go read the boards where the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives post. There will be no moderate leaders.
The Liberals will go on being the Liberals. They will continue to form government most in Canada for at least the next few decades. That might change later in the century as the population continues to shift westward.
As populations rise and diversify they shift to the left. You can go back as far as Rome on that one.
It will be interesting to watch what happens to the left.
We're going to grow out hair long and revive the BT Express song "Peacepipe" as our anthem.
In reality, what happens to the left isn't that relevant from a Parliamentary standpoint.
What did that guy at Woodstock say?
After all, its only 20 or so seats.
Smart money says 30, then 50-70 the time after. that's in a fragmented parliament.
But the next schism may occur there. I like Jack Layton.
I'm sure he likes you to, but he's married.
However, except for the hardcore, the NDP is a bit of an anachronism, nationally anyways.
You're just saying that because of the poll that said Jack would give back you're wallet.
Its too tied to the unions, and its been singing basically the same song since the 1960s.
As opposed to the greed, graft and kickbacks song that the Conservatives and Liberals have been singing since the 1860s?
But its amazing to me that the NDP were completely shut out of Saskatchewan, its spiritual birthplace.
Apparently you only count seats and do no real analysis.
Though it is likely to continue being the dominant force on the Left, the NDP should really watch the rise of the Greens. The Greens are young, they're new, they're hip, they're international. The NDP seems old and stodgy compared to the new, hip Green Party. It is the Greens who could do serious damage to the NDP. In some recent polls, they've been in double-digits. It could get fascinating over the next few years.
The Greens in Canada are really a red tory party, and even that is giving them too much credit. They are corporatists first and environmentalists second. They are now losing supporters to the NDP and picking up up disafected Conservatives and Liberals. The continued myth that they are part of the left is not fooling anybody on the left anymore, and is increasingly ineffective with even right of centre voters.
So, yes, of course the Parliamentary system can survive. Plus, simply having proportional representation doesn't solve the problem of perpetual minorities. Its more likely to exacerbate it.
Perpetual minorites aren't a problem, they are a blessing.
