Why things look bleak for Newfoundland

Locutus

Adorable Deplorable
Jun 18, 2007
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Newfoundland’s new Liberal government is facing a Greece-like mountain of red ink—and has no clear path to tackle it

There was a fierce debate during the 2015 federal election campaign over whether Prime Minister Stephen Harper had actually delivered a “surprise” $1.9-billion surplus last year, or had in fact rang up a similar-sized deficit. But, as is so often the case, it was all smoke, no fire. Wrapping up the fiscal year a few billion on either side of the ledger is a rounding error in a $2-trillion economy.


By contrast, Newfoundland and Labrador is suffering from the opposite problem. The province’s finances are in shambles—the deficit has ballooned to $1.96 billion thanks to plunging oil and gas revenues, according to a recent fiscal update—and yet politicians managed to stump their way through a provincial election in November without addressing the issue head-on. And make no mistake: at seven per cent of GDP, the province’s red ink isn’t something that can be fudged away. It’s on par with Greece’s average deficit-to-GDP ratio over the past two decades. And, as some have joked on Twitter, we all know how that turned out.


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The Rock's in a hard place: Why things look bleak for Newfoundland - Macleans.ca
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
29,711
11,113
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
With 'oil' in the toilet, so to speak, what's going to happen
come "Equalization" pay-up time? Who's a 'Have' and who's
a 'have not' at this point?

I mean, sure, Quebec will suck off half of all as per usual I'm
assuming, and will expect the rest of Canada to wipe its chin,
but what then?

Ontario sounds like it's in rough shape financially, and Alberta
is getting beaten up between an NDP provincial gov't and oil
being in the crapper. NFL being in the same position, and both
Manitoba & Quebec having their hydro exempt so that Quebec
doesn't threaten to take its ball and go home, etc....

So what does that leave? BC, SK even with oil down hard, being
much more diversified than AB, & PEI hopefully having a good
run on potatoes this year? NB & NS hopefully being in good
shape due to whatever they might have happening? Maybe
the Territories (whatever they're called at this point)?

Anyone else see a "Yikes!" moment coming?
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
118,292
14,499
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Low Earth Orbit
There is a 3 year delay meaning a have Province pays for three more years after not being a have Province.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
29,711
11,113
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
There is a 3 year delay meaning a have Province pays for three more years after not being a have Province.

Cool, I guess, 'cuz I'd hate to see the country try'n to float on
potash, potatoes, and canola. It's kind'a sounding bleak at
this point, and with a Liberal (free shyte & intentional debt, and
damn the torpedo's) Fed Gov't at the helm....I'm somewhat
unsure about the financial outcome....
 

taxslave

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 25, 2008
36,362
4,340
113
Vancouver Island
Cool, I guess, 'cuz I'd hate to see the country try'n to float on
potash, potatoes, and canola. It's kind'a sounding bleak at
this point, and with a Liberal (free shyte & intentional debt, and
damn the torpedo's) Fed Gov't at the helm....I'm somewhat
unsure about the financial outcome....

Permit me to enlighten you. It will be a financial disaster on par with Greece.

Except I doubt Germany will bail us out.
 

FiveParadox

Governor General
Dec 20, 2005
5,875
43
48
Vancouver, BC
With 'oil' in the toilet, so to speak, what's going to happen
come "Equalization" pay-up time? Who's a 'Have' and who's
a 'have not' at this point?

I mean, sure, Quebec will suck off half of all as per usual I'm
assuming, and will expect the rest of Canada to wipe its chin,
but what then?

Ontario sounds like it's in rough shape financially, and Alberta
is getting beaten up between an NDP provincial gov't and oil
being in the crapper. NFL being in the same position, and both
Manitoba & Quebec having their hydro exempt so that Quebec
doesn't threaten to take its ball and go home, etc....

So what does that leave? BC, SK even with oil down hard, being
much more diversified than AB, & PEI hopefully having a good
run on potatoes this year? NB & NS hopefully being in good
shape due to whatever they might have happening? Maybe
the Territories (whatever they're called at this point)?

Anyone else see a "Yikes!" moment coming?

Equalization transfer payments are budgeted for the 2016-2017 fiscal year as follows:

  • Newfoundland and Labrador: $0
  • Prince Edward Island: $380 million
  • Nova Scotia: $1,722 million
  • New Brunswick: $1,708 million
  • Québec: $10,030 million
  • Ontario: $2,304 million
  • Manitoba: $1,736 million
  • Saskatchewan: $0
  • Alberta: $0
  • British Columbia: $0
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
29,711
11,113
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
Equalization transfer payments are budgeted for the 2016-2017 fiscal year as follows:

  • Newfoundland and Labrador: $0
  • Prince Edward Island: $380 million
  • Nova Scotia: $1,722 million
  • New Brunswick: $1,708 million
  • Québec: $10,030 million
  • Ontario: $2,304 million
  • Manitoba: $1,736 million
  • Saskatchewan: $0
  • Alberta: $0
  • British Columbia: $0

That's who gets....not who gives...and sure doesn't reflect the
current financial realities of the nation as a whole.

In 2013-2014....the net contributors to Equalization where the
four oil producing provinces. BC,AB,SK, & NFL. They're all
facing oil at low-lows right now. Kind of an ugly situation.