Why leaving Canada makes sense for Alberta, and U.S. would likely welcome a new state
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Jen GersonWednesday, Mar. 18, 2015
Downtown Calgary Dec. 10, 2014. Geopolitics expert Peter Zeihan says Alberta would be better off joining the U.S. in his new book, which examines the future of America. Colleen De Neve / Postmedia News
U.S. forecaster Peter Zeihan, a former geopolitical analyst with the security firm Stratfor, has spent his career trying to predict the future of tumultuous states — recently, he’s turned his gaze to North America. Now, his latest book, The Accidental Superpower, takes a bleak look at the direction of the world in general. Among his speculations, the future of Alberta in Canada. He spoke to the Post‘s Jen Gerson.
Geopolitics expert Peter Zeihan. Handout
Q Tell me about your book as a whole?
A The global system as we understand it is highly artificial. The United States created it after the Second World War to fight the Cold War. We introduced this concept of free trade that allowed anyone we were friendly with to trade with anyone else we were friendly with — the U.S. guaranteed the security of the oceans, it would open its markets, it would patrol the Middle East and make sure energy could get to where it needed to go. Before, you had competing empires fighting for resources and markets. The American system expanded peace and prosperity throughout the world in a way the human race had never experienced before. But we did it to contain the Soviet Union. Since the Cold War ended, the U.S. has been withdrawing from that system.
Q Why?
A Two big things. The first is shale oil — the U.S. will be energy independent by the end of 2016. Shale is severing the strongest link between us in North America and the rest of the world. The Middle East is becoming someone else’s problem.
The second piece is demographics. The percentage of Americans who are baby boomers is smaller than the equivalent cohort elsewhere. Every other country (except New Zealand) has a much larger population hitting mass retirement, and you’ve got all the financial problems that come with that.
Q Amid this interesting geopolitical shift, you devote a chapter to Alberta’s possible secession.
A Canada’s demographic situation is similar to the rest of the developed world — a large population moving toward retirement and hardly any young people in the replacement generation coming up.
However, Alberta does not fit that mould. It is the youngest province, and is becoming younger, better paid and more highly skilled as the rest of Canada becomes older and less skilled, and a ward of the state financially.
The other piece is, of course, energy. British Columbia has been hostile to Alberta’s efforts to diversity oil exports and the Atlantic is more than 2,000 miles away.
But really, it comes down to demographics. Right now, every man, woman and child in Alberta pay $6,000 more into the national budget than they get back. Alberta is the only province that is a net contributor to that budget — by 2020, the number will exceed $20,000 per person, $40,000 per taxpayer. That will be the greatest wealth transfer in per capita terms in the Western world. The only other place we see things like that is in Saudi Arabia, where the oil-producing regions subsidize the rest of the country.
Pumpjacks at work pumping crude oil near Halkirk, Alta., June 20, 2007. File photo
Secession has been a dirty political word in Alberta for several years, with politicians rumoured to be secret secessionists. That talk died down when the Harper Conservatives were elected — when a group of people who came out of the Alberta mould assumed power.
Why leaving Canada makes sense for Alberta, and U.S. would likely welcome a new state
Facebook | Twitter | Google+ | Email
Jen GersonWednesday, Mar. 18, 2015
Downtown Calgary Dec. 10, 2014. Geopolitics expert Peter Zeihan says Alberta would be better off joining the U.S. in his new book, which examines the future of America. Colleen De Neve / Postmedia News
U.S. forecaster Peter Zeihan, a former geopolitical analyst with the security firm Stratfor, has spent his career trying to predict the future of tumultuous states — recently, he’s turned his gaze to North America. Now, his latest book, The Accidental Superpower, takes a bleak look at the direction of the world in general. Among his speculations, the future of Alberta in Canada. He spoke to the Post‘s Jen Gerson.
Geopolitics expert Peter Zeihan. Handout
Q Tell me about your book as a whole?
A The global system as we understand it is highly artificial. The United States created it after the Second World War to fight the Cold War. We introduced this concept of free trade that allowed anyone we were friendly with to trade with anyone else we were friendly with — the U.S. guaranteed the security of the oceans, it would open its markets, it would patrol the Middle East and make sure energy could get to where it needed to go. Before, you had competing empires fighting for resources and markets. The American system expanded peace and prosperity throughout the world in a way the human race had never experienced before. But we did it to contain the Soviet Union. Since the Cold War ended, the U.S. has been withdrawing from that system.
Q Why?
A Two big things. The first is shale oil — the U.S. will be energy independent by the end of 2016. Shale is severing the strongest link between us in North America and the rest of the world. The Middle East is becoming someone else’s problem.
The second piece is demographics. The percentage of Americans who are baby boomers is smaller than the equivalent cohort elsewhere. Every other country (except New Zealand) has a much larger population hitting mass retirement, and you’ve got all the financial problems that come with that.
Q Amid this interesting geopolitical shift, you devote a chapter to Alberta’s possible secession.
A Canada’s demographic situation is similar to the rest of the developed world — a large population moving toward retirement and hardly any young people in the replacement generation coming up.
However, Alberta does not fit that mould. It is the youngest province, and is becoming younger, better paid and more highly skilled as the rest of Canada becomes older and less skilled, and a ward of the state financially.
The other piece is, of course, energy. British Columbia has been hostile to Alberta’s efforts to diversity oil exports and the Atlantic is more than 2,000 miles away.
But really, it comes down to demographics. Right now, every man, woman and child in Alberta pay $6,000 more into the national budget than they get back. Alberta is the only province that is a net contributor to that budget — by 2020, the number will exceed $20,000 per person, $40,000 per taxpayer. That will be the greatest wealth transfer in per capita terms in the Western world. The only other place we see things like that is in Saudi Arabia, where the oil-producing regions subsidize the rest of the country.
Pumpjacks at work pumping crude oil near Halkirk, Alta., June 20, 2007. File photo
Secession has been a dirty political word in Alberta for several years, with politicians rumoured to be secret secessionists. That talk died down when the Harper Conservatives were elected — when a group of people who came out of the Alberta mould assumed power.
Why leaving Canada makes sense for Alberta, and U.S. would likely welcome a new state
