On Friday, Stephen Harper surpassed Brian Mulroney, becoming the sixth longest-serving prime minister in our history.
On Jan. 24 he will begin his ninth year at 24 Sussex Drive. There’s reason to wonder if he will have a 10th, or if he will step aside to let someone else lead his party into next October’s election.
A decade is a long time to be prime minister. Jean Chretien and Mulroney both packed it in around that mark, as did Britain’s Tony Blair and Australia’s John Howard.
Voters eventually get tired of leaders, and rivals get ambitious.
Harper is careful not to overexpose himself, and there are no signs that anyone in his party is scheming to unseat him, but the exasperation of those who don’t like him is starting to be a palpable force for change, and he is carrying heavy baggage that another leader could cast off.
If Harper stays at the helm, the next campaign will be like cycling uphill with Mike Duffy sitting on the handlebars. If somebody else is doing the peddling, then whatever is in Duffy’s inbox will be much less troubling to the re-election prospects of Conservatives.
Harper is not telegraphing a career change, but he wouldn’t, would he? The minute a sitting prime minister starts to look like he’s thinking about taking a walk in the snow, his aides start polishing their CVs, and it’s harder to instill the kind of fear that makes premiers, bureaucrats, mayors and aboriginal leaders treat the office with due deference.
Close observers note that Harper has recently taken to wearing contact lenses, a sign that he’s getting into campaign mode.
On the other hand, he’s been travelling overseas more, which is something leaders often do before they hang up their guns.
Some say that Harper can’t abide the idea of losing to Justin Trudeau, and needs to avoid the next election. Others say he won’t back down from a fight.
Nobody can figure out what his next job might be, and he sure seems to like being prime minister, but Laureen might like him to see more of her and the kids, and after four elections and 13 years as a party leader, the family might deserve a quieter life.
I’ve been watching the guy as closely as I can since 2003 — not a particularly rewarding pursuit — and I have little idea of what motivates him, aside from a desire to reduce taxes, shrink the federal government and thwart his rivals.
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