Recession is over or just a prep for Christmas Shopping time ?

Quote: Originally Posted by Ron in Regina

The Canary in the Coal Mine for the economy is the transport industry. You want
to know where things are going (or that they where going to pot before anyone seemed
to notice), as someone who hauls the goods that people will buy when the economy
improves.

If the Trucking Industry is still sucking air...then that's not a good sign. Talk to a couple
of Truckers to get an idea of where things are going. If two out'a three try to sell you
their trucks...that's not a good sign.

Quote: Originally Posted by Francis2004

I understand that view Ron and it makes total sense.. Being that two brothers are in the trucking industry I can relate but the point these stock / Bank guys are making is that the product will start to move in Oct to Nov.. They say China is already moving fast and that many are following..

I still don't see it and don't believe it, but the belief is that if we tell people it will happen, they will make it happen..

Are we creating false expectations.. I believe we are..

Quote: Originally Posted by Cliffy

The recession happened because the bankers/stock brokers said it was happening. We believed them and stopped spending. As my friend said "It was a controlled demolition." Now it is a controlled reconstruction. Those at the top of the food chain made billions off the demolition and they will make billions of the reconstruction. They manipulate the markets like they manipulate your minds.

Quote: Originally Posted by Machjo

Now what we need to keep an eye out for is the oncoming inflation, labour shortages, high interest rates, and debt.

We put alot of stimulous money into the world economy over the course of the recession. Unless we want an uncontrolled boom to wreak havock on our money, we'll have to rake all that money out of the economy again as soon as we're back in inflation.

Quote: Originally Posted by AnnaG

lol I'd like to deflate the stock market, big business, and banks. lol

Quote: Originally Posted by AnnaG

lol I'd like to deflate the stock market, big business, and banks. lol

Quote: Originally Posted by SirJosephPorter

Anna, deflate the stock market? And the banks as well? My, just how much blasphemy is one person capable of?

Don’t talk about deflating the stock market. My stocks have gone up nicely, I have made up whatever I lost in the Bush meltdown, my portfolio is the highest it ever was (mainly thanks to bank stocks). And you talk of deflating yet again?

I don’t think we want any deflation, not in the stocks anyway.

Quote: Originally Posted by AnnaG

I just finished saying I was kidding.

Quote: Originally Posted by SirJosephPorter

But if it cares about the poor, it will have no choice but to either increase taxes on those who can afford it, slash government spending, or both.

That has to be the next step, Machjo. But government will have to wait until employment is on the rise again. Inflation is really not much of a worry while we have high unemployment (though in the 70s we did have stagflation, the theoretically impossible situation of high inflation and high unemployment at the same time). While unemployment is high, there won’t be enough of a demand for goods to cause inflation.

Quote: Originally Posted by SirJosephPorter

However backlog and firm new orders are still not showing a great improvement to substantiate this claim and only shows the recession has finally bottomed, not started to pull out..

Francis, stock market is the leading indicator of what will happen to the economy six months down the line, and it usually is fairly accurate. If it is accurate this time, we have reached the bottom and we may have started the recovery. However, recovery cannot really be said to be occurring until unemployment starts coming down.

Quote: Originally Posted by AnnaG

I just finished saying I was kidding.

Quote: Originally Posted by Cliffy

I was hoping for a complete meltdown. We need a new economic model based on reality not speculation. We need to get away from endless growth, mindless consumerism and increasing environment degradation. Our economy is why our life support system is failing. You can't eat money, you can't breath goods. If the economy recovers and returns to the same cycle of mindlessness it has been, you can kiss your asses goodbye sooner than later.

Quote: Originally Posted by Francis2004

I dug up this thread from July as I was looking at stocks and unemployment numbers. Stocks have been going up and are still a healthy
TSX = > 11,000
DOW = > 10,000
NDAQ = > 2,000

While today's unemployment numbers in the US were above 10% and Canada's rose 0.2% again in October.

We are still being told that the future is rosy and that all is on track.. Is it just a game ?

Quote: Originally Posted by SirJosephPorter

We don’t know. If it is anything like a usual downturn, then I would say everything is on track. There are all the signs pointing towards recovery, all except unemployment. And that will take time.

Of course, if this is nothing like previous downturns, things can still turn sour. And there are pundits who say at every downturn that this time it is different, this time economy is not coming back etc. So far they have been proved wrong every time, so I am assuming that this is similar to many previous downturns (though much more severe).

If that is the case, I would expect unemployment to start coming down in next six months.

Quote: Originally Posted by VanIsle

The expectation is that in January it will be far worse. That's a very real expectation as it always gets slower in January and February so if it's slow now, it will really be slow then. I think in those two months un-employment will drop a huge amount.