UK economy will be biggest in Europe in four decades, say experts

Blackleaf

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Oct 9, 2004
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Britain will be the biggest economy in Europe with one of the wealthiest populations in the world by the middle of the century, according to leading economists.

Long-term forecasts by investment bank Goldman Sachs suggest the UK will fare better than its neighbours on the Continent over the next four decades.


On the rise: The UK economy will leapfrog those of France and Germany within four decades

Britain is currently the third biggest economy in Europe behind Germany and France in terms of overall size but by 2050 it will have leapfrogged both countries.

The UK will also jump from being the sixth wealthiest country in the world measured by national income per head to third.

Only people in the United States and Canada will be more prosperous than those in Britain by 2050, according to the report.

Dominic Wilson, chief markets economist at Goldman Sachs, said Britain faced a number of pressing issues such as high unemployment and weak economic growth.

‘But looking forward we think the UK is capable of holding its own and in fact moving ahead of some of the other developed economies,’ he added.

Goldman put Britain’s strong performance down to higher-than-expected investment than in countries such as Germany and France.

It also said that the economy would benefit from immigration which would boost the working age population.

The upbeat predictions came as Britain struggles to recover from the worst financial crisis and recession since the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The debt-fuelled boom and bust of the last Labour government has plunged Britain deep into the red and left households struggling to make ends meet.

Sir Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, warned over the summer that the UK is only part of the way through 'seven lean years' after the banking crash.

Britain is currently the seventh biggest economy in the world having recently been overtaken by Brazil. The US is number one, followed by China, Japan, Germany and France.


Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King warned over the summer that the UK is only part of the way through 'seven lean years'

By 2050, the UK will have fallen to ninth place having been overtaken by Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and India, according to Goldman.

But the report said it will be bigger than both France and Germany in 10th and 11th respectively. Goldman said China would become the world’s biggest economy ahead of the US in 2026.

But Mr Wilson said the citizens of fast-growing countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China – collectively known as the BRICs – will still be markedly less well-off than their Western counterparts.

‘The income levels are so far ahead in the developed world that any sensible exercise leaves them likely to be the richest for some time,’ said Mr Wilson.

The UK is the sixth richest country in the world in terms of income per head, behind the US in first place followed by Canada, Japan, France and Germany. But Goldman predicted that in 2050 Britain will be up to third.

Research group IHS Global Insight yesterday predicted economic growth of 0.3 per cent in Britain in 2012 and a slump of 0.7 per cent in the eurozone.

Read more: Finally some good news (but not until 2050): British economy
 

Walter

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Jan 28, 2007
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Economists are about as good as meteorologists with their forecasts. Most folks who are alive now could give a rat's behind about what 40 years hence will bring.