National Poll Gives Kerry Solid Lead - LA Times

moghrabi

House Member
May 25, 2004
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Jun 10, 3:01 AM (ET)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat John Kerry has a solid lead over President Bush among voters nationwide, according to a Los Angeles Times poll on Thursday that cited widespread unease over the country's direction, Iraq policies and the economy.
Kerry, the U.S. senator from Massachusetts, led Bush by 51 percent to 44 percent nationally in a two-way match-up, according to the poll of 1,230 registered voters taken from Saturday to Tuesday.

The figures dropped with independent Ralph Nader in the mix: Kerry drew 48 percent in a three-way race and Bush 42 percent, the poll showed.

Majorities disapproved of Bush's handling of the economy and Iraq, despite encouraging news on both recently, the poll said. Fifty-six percent of respondents said America "needs to move in a new direction" because Bush's policies have not improved the country.

However, in an indication of the race's volatility, the newspaper's polling in three fiercely contested states shows the Republican president with a double-digit advantage over Kerry in Missouri, with Nader included, and running even with the presumed Democratic rival in Ohio and Wisconsin.

However, majorities in each state say the country should change direction, the survey said.

Nationally, 55 percent of respondents disapproved of how Bush was handling Iraq, while 44 percent approved of his performance. On the economy, 54 percent didn't approve of the job Bush was doing while 43 percent did, the survey showed.

The newspaper poll said Bush was stronger on his overall job approval rating -- with 51 percent approving to 47 percent disapproving -- because of high marks for the president on the war against terrorism and virtually unanimous support from Republicans and others who consider themselves conservative.

The Times' nationwide poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, while that of the state polls is four percentage points.
 

American Voice

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Jun 4, 2004
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What do you know about nonresponse bias in early polling, Bin? Nobody--except real politics junkies--pays any attention to the elections until after Labor Day. Respondents now are likely to be either extremists or hysterical nincompoops. Rational and sensible people have better things to do than respond to telephone poll-takers so far out of season. And the out-of-season responders also tend to be highly suggestible, meaning they want to tell the poll-taker what the poll-taker subliminally cues them to say? "You're asking ME! Gosh, tell me what you want me to say, so you'll like me and call me again." I'm not saying that all polls are suspect, but polls taken now are not really considered to be credible. Those numbers could be entirely different next week. Consider the effect of the Reagan funeral. Consider that the Bush campaign strategy thus far is to run against Clinton, who cannot even be a candidate. It's la-la land, Bin.

By the way, if I get called by a poll-taker, and if I have the time and I'm feeling frisky, I respond, but I give them all wrong answers. One time, the cognitive dissonance--the disparity between the sound of my steady, articulate, baritone voice, and the unexpected string of responses I made--got the guy on the other end of the phone laughing. He actually said, "You're kidding me, right?" We both laughed.
 

moghrabi

House Member
May 25, 2004
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That was a mouthful! I have to read your reply again for the 101th time to really understand what you are saying. But thanks for the comment.
 

Reverend Blair

Council Member
Apr 3, 2004
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Are you sure you don't read a lot of Hunter Thompson, American Voice? If you start giving odds on the Senatorial race I'll accuse you of being this weird cowboy I know in Montana.
 

American Voice

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Jun 4, 2004
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Reverend Blair said:
Are you sure you don't read a lot of Hunter Thompson, American Voice? If you start giving odds on the Senatorial race I'll accuse you of being this weird cowboy I know in Montana.

Which senatorial race, Rev.?
 

Reverend Blair

Council Member
Apr 3, 2004
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Any of them. This cowboy I know (a real working cowboy) picked up the habit after I loaned him a Hunter Thompson book. Thompson is a notorious gambler and used to handicap the elections in some of his articles. Jeff (the cowboy) thought that was the greatest thing ever and began doing the same.
 

American Voice

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Jun 4, 2004
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Nope. Not a gambler. Don't own a horse. Tried to ride one once. Fell off. Broke my wrist saving my neck. We're having a governor's race here in two years that ought to be fun to watch. Got me a ringside seat, but no, I don't place any bets. I just come for the blood.