Leave Iraq or Be Expelled

[moghrabi]

The US is losing in Iraq. Which means it will be politically impossible for the US to attack or invade Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon; the rest of the "list".
Which may explain why Israel has suddenly started to cozy up to Russia.

So, looking into the crystal ball...

1. The US will be out of the Mideast.

2. Russia will be into the Mideast.

3. The US will have to pay full market price for oil imports from the Mideast.

4. The global oil currency will change over to the Euro or (worst case) the Ruble.

5. Without the foreign demand for dollars to pay for oil, the trade imbalance and accumulated US Government debt will collapse the dollar.


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[fubbleskag]

i would love for nothing more

 

[Jillyvn]

Re: RE: Leave Iraq or Be Expelled

i would love for nothing more

I wish I could track down the essay. Perhaps someone out there can help me. Basically, this academic proposes that all superpowers enter an inevitable state of decline which they combat through excessive militarism and dictatorial government. The US fits all the points right now. I don't think it is a matter of if the US will fall, but when. And I don't look forward to that at all. I can't imagine the economic ramifications will be good at all.

 

[bogie]

I think these "academic" proposals, and theories, are a little off-base. I doubt, very much, within "many" generations anyway, that you will see any decline in the US control over the global economy. While they are agressive, militarily, they are not dictatorial "within". The US is still seen as the mecca for all the down-trodden of the world, and is still the #1 destination for all who want to succeed.

While Europe, as an economic unit, is strengthening, it also has a poor history (and a long one) of non-unity and lack of peaceful state.

Russia is beaten, economically, and is far from being the super-power that they used to be (and they weren't for that long). It will take a long time for them to become an economic entity to reckon with.

A paradigm shift needs to happen in the US that will shift the global perspective of the "ugly American". Although, that same global community aspires to have the freedom and prosperity that the US enjoys.

 

[Jillyvn]

Re: RE: Leave Iraq or Be Expelled

I think these "academic" proposals, and theories, are a little off-base. I doubt, very much, within "many" generations anyway, that you will see any decline in the US control over the global economy. While they are agressive, militarily, they are not dictatorial "within". The US is still seen as the mecca for all the down-trodden of the world, and is still the #1 destination for all who want to succeed.

Sorry - I didn't make myself clear. There is a progression that takes place, and the US is smack dab in the middle. They're on the path. We won't see it in our lifetime.

 

[fubbleskag]

we won't?

*crestfallen*

 

[Reverend Blair]

RE: Leave Iraq or Be Expe

I think we could see it, and when it starts it could come very quickly.

The US is massively in debt...some economists have compared it to Venezuela. A lot of that debt is now owned by China. China tied it's currency to the USD at a an incredibly undervalued rate. If it unties it and locks into the Euro, the US debt to them would almost double.

The US is also over-extended militarily. They are involved in everything, everywhere. A lot of their military is dependent on technology. The manufacture of that technology is done, as often as not, in foreign countries.

Toss in a few things like peak oil, the likelyhood of a housing bubble, their massive trade deficit, resource shortages that may happen (especially if global warming sets in according to the pessimistic models), and an increasingly polarised population, and things could go bad very quickly.