Election Seats

[Jersay]

Last Poll for Election Seat Prediction:

Lib:110

Con: 94

NDP: 43

Bloc: 60

Other: 1


Election 2004:

Lib: 135 (- 25)

Con: 99 (-5)

NDP 19 (+24)

Bloc 54 (+6)

Other 1 (0)

If the NDP keeps rising, if the Conservatives and Liberals in the next few elections, have scandals or are inept to govern, could it possibly mean that in maybe 4 to 6 years we might see a NDP government. They are not going down like some people say, they only seem to be going up. And with Jack Layton, the most popular politician in Ottawa, their future seems bright.

Go NDP!

 

[Reverend Blair]

Have you got a source for that, Jersay?

 

[Roy]

yea Jersay, or did you pull the numbers out yer ass. :lol:

 

[Jersay]

It was done Dec 18

Wikipedia

Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2006

Link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2006

 

[Roy]

hmm, that is interesting, but I still think that the prediction is out to lunch. I would be willing to make a bet that the socialists do not win more than 25 seats....care to make a wager anyone.

 

[Jersay]

I would like to say that the NDP would win enough seats to form government but I would say that they would win between 32 and 38 seats. More like in the middle of both numbers so I would be happy with 35.

 

[Reverend Blair]

Democratic Space put these up yesterday:

LIB...120

CPC...102

NDP...23

GRN...0

BQ...63

OTH...0

I think they're a little high on the Liberals and a little low on the NDP, but they are way more reliable that Wikipedia.

 

[Reverend Blair]

I would like to say that the NDP would win enough seats to form government but I would say that they would win between 32 and 38 seats. More like in the middle of both numbers so I would be happy with 35.

I'm sticking with my estimate of 30 seats for the NDP so far. A lot of seats are just too close to call right now...many of them 3 way races.

 

[Roy]

yea that is probably a bit more accurate. i would be willling to bet that the conservatives would win at least 110 though....any wagers?

 

[Jersay]

Nah, I say 100 to 104.

Liberals around 105 to 110

 

[Reverend Blair]

They will likely be about the same or a little less, Roy. The Ontario numbers aren't there, three ridings in Saskatchewan are looking more and more orange all the time, and BC is turning into Lib/NDP country, especially in the urban areas.

I doubt that the CPC will manage 110. I actually think 102 is a bit of a stretch.

 

[Jersay]

And I think the First Nations Peoples Party of Canada will win one or two seats. Especially around Nunavut. The party has been created but I don't know if they are running as Independents or as a party.

 

[Roy]

wagers wagers wagers, I crave wagers :happy6: :tard:
lol

 

[Roy]

They will likely be about the same or a little less, Roy. The Ontario numbers aren't there, three ridings in Saskatchewan are looking more and more orange all the time, and BC is turning into Lib/NDP country, especially in the urban areas.

which ridings in saskatchewan are you referring to?

 

[#juan]

The latest CPAC-SES tracking has the Liberals at 39%, the Conservatives at 29%, the NDP at 15%, the BQ at 12% and the Green Party at 5% nationally. Regionally, Liberal support in Western Canada has been steadily improving over the past week. On the best PM measure, Martin leads Harper by only four points. Yesterday's Paul Martin scored on his daily performance index. With his blitz of media interviews his daily score jumped up substantially.



As you might have seen, another major national polling firm, Leger Marketing, released a poll yesterday, which is consistent with the trends we saw yesterday. Also note that both show a similar situation in Quebec with the BQ at 50%.



With CPAC and SES you get the trends first.



Field dates

SES Research (N=992 decided voters, December 19 to December 21, 2005) – Reported Yesterday

Leger Marketing (N=1,215 decided voters, December 17 to December 21, 2005)



Canada December 21, 2005

LIB – SES 37%, Leger 37%

CP – SES 29%, Leger 30%

NDP – SES 15%, Leger 16%

BQ – SES 12%, Leger 12%



Quebec December 21, 2005
BQ – SES 50%, Leger 50%

LIB – SES 32%, Leger 31%



Polling December 20 to December 22, 2005 (Random Telephone Survey of 1,200 Canadians, MoE ± 2.9%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website at www.sesresearch.com.



Today detailed regional and provincial stats are available on the SES website.



All values in parenthesis are changes from our November 13th national survey.



Canada Decided Voters (Tracking ended Dec 22, 2005)

LIB – 39% (+5)

CP – 29% (+1)

NDP – 15% (-5)

BQ – 12% (-2)

GP –5 (+1)

*17% of Canadians were undecided (+3)



In Quebec

BQ – 48% (-6)

LIB – 33% (+9)

CP – 11% (+2)

NDP – 5% (-3)

GP – 3% (-1)

*19% of Quebecers were undecided (+7)



Outside Quebec

LIB – 41% (+4)

CP – 35% (NC)
NDP - 18% (-7)

GP – 6% (+2)

*17% of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (+2)



Best PM

Martin – 28% (-1)

Harper – 24% (+2)

Unsure – 18% (+5)

Layton – 13% (-3)

None – 9% (-2)

Duceppe - 6% (-1)

Harris – 2% (-2)



Leadership Index [Daily composite of the Leaders’ Trust, Competence and Vision]*

Martin – 88 (+17)

Harper – 62 (-7)

Layton – 43 (+1)

Duceppe – 24 (NC)

Harris – 4 (-2)

 

[Reverend Blair]

And I think the First Nations Peoples Party of Canada will win one or two seats. Especially around Nunavut. The party has been created but I don't know if they are running as Independents or as a party.

We'll see. It's a new party without much funding and they got a late start. The Liberals have 12 or 15 native candidates and the NDP have 5. The native vote traditionally goes Liberal in federal elections except for a few bands that go NDP.

I'd like to see the FNPP get a couple of seats, but I think they're more likely to split the vote and turn some Liberal seats NDP this time out. Next time they'll be more of a factor though.

wagers wagers wagers, I crave wagers

I'm forbidden to gamble on politics and eight ball. Snooker is still kind of a grey area though.

 

[Reverend Blair]

which ridings in saskatchewan are you referring to?

Palliser, Regina-Quappelle, and Saskatoon-Biggar.

 

[Roy]

Palliser, Regina-Quappelle, and Saskatoon-Biggar.

crap, cause i got family in Sask and i was living there last year so if needed would cast my vote in sask. I think they are in the blackstrap region though, i gotta check.

i cant belive i cast a liberal vote there last year.......people are soo dumb when they are 19

 

[Reverend Blair]

The latest CPAC-SES tracking has the Liberals at 39%, the Conservatives at 29%, the NDP at 15%, the BQ at 12% and the Green Party at 5% nationally. Regionally, Liberal support in Western Canada has been steadily improving over the past week.

That matters in BC, but not in Alberta. Landslide Annie will likely win her seat back, but that's about it.

In Saskatchewan Ralph Goodale will keep his seat. I'll keep making that prediction until Mrs. Rev's uncle dies, moves, or decides to switch parties. He hasn't been wrong yet, and I've known him for longer than I've known Mrs. Rev. 8O

The interesting race for the Liberals in Manitoba is Churchill. Bev Desjarlais is running as an independent and Tina Keeper (North of 60 actress) is running as the Liberal candidate. The NDP candidate, Niki Ashton, is a newcomer at 23. She's a smart girl though, has the solid backing of her riding association, and works really hard, so I'm still calling her as the winner.

 

[Finder]

I don't think the NDP will win that many seats. But then again we are talking FPTP and the NDP could actually get lucky and win ridings which are close... but how often is the ndp lucky in FPTP. =-(