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Daily Gleaner | E-Brief
As published on page A1/A2 on June 1, 2004
Conservatives gaining
Harper could achieve minority government
Canadian Press
OTTAWA - If angry voters decide to punish incumbent Liberals by sending a minority Conservative government to Ottawa on June 28, they could be setting the stage for another vote before too long, experts are predicting this week.
The minority government concept has been growing more popular as the election campaign heads into Week 2 with the Liberals losing ground in public opinion polls.
Pollster Frank Graves, for one, has said that after three consecutive majorities, the best the Liberals can hope for now is a minority government.
"(That) would seem to be an optimistic conclusion for (Prime Minister) Paul Martin, given the trajectory of current forces," he said.
That's fuelling interest in a possible minority government headed by Conservatives.
But experts say party Leader Stephen Harper could have trouble finding opposition allies to support legislation under a new minority government he might establish.
That, in turn, would mean another federal election in short order, something not everyone would like to see.
However, it could be Harper's interim goal if he wins a minority in the federal vote, says political scientist Paul Thomas.
After a short period of trying to govern, Harper could then try to discredit opposition Liberals as being obstructionist and urge voters to give his Conservatives a real mandate.
"(Harper) could say to the electorate, 'The Liberals just can't stand to be out of power, they think they have a God-given right to govern so let's go back to (balloting) ... to confirm what they almost confirmed last time: that it's time for a change,'" said Thomas, who teaches at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg.
"Their overall strategy might be to hasten their own demise."
That was the successful strategy used by former Tory prime minister John Diefenbaker, who boasted the shortest minority government in history - only 177 days, from August 1957 to February 1958. After that, he won a landslide victory.
The concept is gaining popularity as voters, outraged by the sponsorship scandal, see these minorities as a way of keeping tighter control over Ottawa, said Thomas.
"Canadians have lost some of their faith in politicians and they think if (politicians) are clinging to power, they'll listen more carefully to what voters are saying than if you give them a big majority."
The depth of voter anger can be seen in how fast they seem to have embraced the new Conservative party, born last December when the Canadian Alliance merged with the old PCs, said Faron Ellis, a political scientist at Lethbridge Community College in southern Alberta.
"Just six months ago, very few people were even predicting Paul Martin would be in trouble," said Ellis, who thinks a minority Conservative government "is still a longshot."
Nor would it last long.
Few Liberals and no New Democrats would likely support any minority Conservative legislation.
Harper could possibly barter with the Bloc Quebecois, their only natural ally, on issues related to devolving federal powers to the provinces, said Ellis.
Daily Gleaner | E-Brief
As published on page A1/A2 on June 1, 2004
Conservatives gaining
Harper could achieve minority government
Canadian Press
OTTAWA - If angry voters decide to punish incumbent Liberals by sending a minority Conservative government to Ottawa on June 28, they could be setting the stage for another vote before too long, experts are predicting this week.
The minority government concept has been growing more popular as the election campaign heads into Week 2 with the Liberals losing ground in public opinion polls.
Pollster Frank Graves, for one, has said that after three consecutive majorities, the best the Liberals can hope for now is a minority government.
"(That) would seem to be an optimistic conclusion for (Prime Minister) Paul Martin, given the trajectory of current forces," he said.
That's fuelling interest in a possible minority government headed by Conservatives.
But experts say party Leader Stephen Harper could have trouble finding opposition allies to support legislation under a new minority government he might establish.
That, in turn, would mean another federal election in short order, something not everyone would like to see.
However, it could be Harper's interim goal if he wins a minority in the federal vote, says political scientist Paul Thomas.
After a short period of trying to govern, Harper could then try to discredit opposition Liberals as being obstructionist and urge voters to give his Conservatives a real mandate.
"(Harper) could say to the electorate, 'The Liberals just can't stand to be out of power, they think they have a God-given right to govern so let's go back to (balloting) ... to confirm what they almost confirmed last time: that it's time for a change,'" said Thomas, who teaches at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg.
"Their overall strategy might be to hasten their own demise."
That was the successful strategy used by former Tory prime minister John Diefenbaker, who boasted the shortest minority government in history - only 177 days, from August 1957 to February 1958. After that, he won a landslide victory.
The concept is gaining popularity as voters, outraged by the sponsorship scandal, see these minorities as a way of keeping tighter control over Ottawa, said Thomas.
"Canadians have lost some of their faith in politicians and they think if (politicians) are clinging to power, they'll listen more carefully to what voters are saying than if you give them a big majority."
The depth of voter anger can be seen in how fast they seem to have embraced the new Conservative party, born last December when the Canadian Alliance merged with the old PCs, said Faron Ellis, a political scientist at Lethbridge Community College in southern Alberta.
"Just six months ago, very few people were even predicting Paul Martin would be in trouble," said Ellis, who thinks a minority Conservative government "is still a longshot."
Nor would it last long.
Few Liberals and no New Democrats would likely support any minority Conservative legislation.
Harper could possibly barter with the Bloc Quebecois, their only natural ally, on issues related to devolving federal powers to the provinces, said Ellis.