Boris Johnson is the overwhelming favourite to become the new British PM on Wednesday afternoon.
But before he even sets foot in No10, he must decide what his Brexit plan is...
JAMES FORSYTH Boris approaches The Great Decide on which way Brexit negotiations will turn
COMMENT
James Forsyth, Sun Columnist
20 Jul 2019
The Sun
BORIS JOHNSON must make one of the most important calls of his premiership before he even sets foot in No10.
He must decide what his Brexit plan is.
Boris Johnson must make one of the most important calls of his premiership before he even sets foot in No10...
I understand that even this weekend, there are different options in circulation. But he must make up his mind before Wednesday.
On day one, calls with European leaders will begin —and Boris will have to know what he wants to tell them.
As one of those preparing him for government puts it: “They’ll call him to say congratulations — and he’ll have to set out his stall.”
This is crucial because the European Commission will refuse to negotiate with Boris’s government unless it is told to do so by the member states.
Boris Johnson must decide what his Brexit plan is Credit: Reuters
I understand that when the Brexit Secretary, Steve Barclay, met Michel Barnier in Brussels last week, the EU’s chief negotiator insisted there couldn’t be any renegotiation — as the European Council hadn’t given the Commission a mandate for one and the terms of the extension preclude any changes to the deal.
DOWN IN THE MOUTH
Within the Johnson camp, there is an ongoing debate about what course to take. This might sound remarkable, given Boris will be entering Downing Street in FIVE DAYS.
Yet this is the way it is going to be. One of those who knows Boris best tells me he likes to have lots of different options until the last minute.
Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General and one of Boris’s key backers, still thinks there are ways to make the current deal work. He believes it is worth considering seeking changes to the backstop that mean it is not permanent and the UK cannot be trapped in it.
I understand that when the Brexit Secretary, Steve Barclay, met Michel Barnier in Brussels last week, the EU’s chief negotiator insisted there couldn’t be any renegotiation Credit: EPA
Those close to Boris believe he was making progress on securing those changes until Theresa May’s No10 pulled the rug from under him this spring. But others, including Boris campaign chair Iain Duncan Smith and Housing Minister Kit Malthouse, argue that Mrs May’s deal is dead and there is no point tweaking it.
They have pushed Boris hard to start again and abandon the current withdrawal agreement.
It was their arguments that led to Boris hardening his position in The Sun debate on Monday and saying that a time limit or exit clause from the backstop would not be enough.
A colleague of Cox tells me he was down in the mouth after Monday night’s debate.
Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General and one of Boris’s key backers, still thinks there are ways to make the current deal work
IDS prefers the idea of a standstill transition while a free trade agreement is negotiated.
But there are two issues with this. First, it offers Dublin no guarantees about the Irish border. It would be politically very difficult for Leo Varadkar to accept such a climbdown.
The second problem is the question of who would arbitrate on any disputes in this period. IDS is very opposed to the idea of the European Court of Justice having jurisdiction over this agreement. But it is hard to see the EU side entertaining this idea without some guarantees on that.
So which side will Boris come down on? Well, one of his confidants says that after Thursday’s hefty Government defeat, “he is beginning to realise how difficult the arithmetic is”. That may well push him towards the Cox approach.
Boris campaign chair Iain Duncan Smith and Housing Minister Kit Malthouse argue that Mrs May’s deal is dead Credit: Darren Fletcher - The Sun
Also, Boris had a frank meeting with a group of Tory MPs opposed to No Deal this week.
I am told it left him thinking they really might do anything, even bring down the Government, trying to stop it.
Again, this is another argument in favour of going down the Cox route of pushing for concessions that the UK has a reasonable chance of getting.
If Boris can get a deal and get Parliament to show its support for it by October 31 and get Britain out of the EU, he will have triumphed. He will be set fair for a general election next year that would likely deliver him a healthy majority.
This weekend, Boris must decide which approach is most likely to get him there.
To govern is to choose.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9545736/boris-johnson-which-way-brexit-negotiations/
But before he even sets foot in No10, he must decide what his Brexit plan is...
JAMES FORSYTH Boris approaches The Great Decide on which way Brexit negotiations will turn
COMMENT
James Forsyth, Sun Columnist
20 Jul 2019
The Sun
BORIS JOHNSON must make one of the most important calls of his premiership before he even sets foot in No10.
He must decide what his Brexit plan is.
Boris Johnson must make one of the most important calls of his premiership before he even sets foot in No10...
I understand that even this weekend, there are different options in circulation. But he must make up his mind before Wednesday.
On day one, calls with European leaders will begin —and Boris will have to know what he wants to tell them.
As one of those preparing him for government puts it: “They’ll call him to say congratulations — and he’ll have to set out his stall.”
This is crucial because the European Commission will refuse to negotiate with Boris’s government unless it is told to do so by the member states.
Boris Johnson must decide what his Brexit plan is Credit: Reuters
I understand that when the Brexit Secretary, Steve Barclay, met Michel Barnier in Brussels last week, the EU’s chief negotiator insisted there couldn’t be any renegotiation — as the European Council hadn’t given the Commission a mandate for one and the terms of the extension preclude any changes to the deal.
DOWN IN THE MOUTH
Within the Johnson camp, there is an ongoing debate about what course to take. This might sound remarkable, given Boris will be entering Downing Street in FIVE DAYS.
Yet this is the way it is going to be. One of those who knows Boris best tells me he likes to have lots of different options until the last minute.
Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General and one of Boris’s key backers, still thinks there are ways to make the current deal work. He believes it is worth considering seeking changes to the backstop that mean it is not permanent and the UK cannot be trapped in it.
I understand that when the Brexit Secretary, Steve Barclay, met Michel Barnier in Brussels last week, the EU’s chief negotiator insisted there couldn’t be any renegotiation Credit: EPA
Those close to Boris believe he was making progress on securing those changes until Theresa May’s No10 pulled the rug from under him this spring. But others, including Boris campaign chair Iain Duncan Smith and Housing Minister Kit Malthouse, argue that Mrs May’s deal is dead and there is no point tweaking it.
They have pushed Boris hard to start again and abandon the current withdrawal agreement.
It was their arguments that led to Boris hardening his position in The Sun debate on Monday and saying that a time limit or exit clause from the backstop would not be enough.
A colleague of Cox tells me he was down in the mouth after Monday night’s debate.
Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General and one of Boris’s key backers, still thinks there are ways to make the current deal work
IDS prefers the idea of a standstill transition while a free trade agreement is negotiated.
But there are two issues with this. First, it offers Dublin no guarantees about the Irish border. It would be politically very difficult for Leo Varadkar to accept such a climbdown.
The second problem is the question of who would arbitrate on any disputes in this period. IDS is very opposed to the idea of the European Court of Justice having jurisdiction over this agreement. But it is hard to see the EU side entertaining this idea without some guarantees on that.
So which side will Boris come down on? Well, one of his confidants says that after Thursday’s hefty Government defeat, “he is beginning to realise how difficult the arithmetic is”. That may well push him towards the Cox approach.
Boris campaign chair Iain Duncan Smith and Housing Minister Kit Malthouse argue that Mrs May’s deal is dead Credit: Darren Fletcher - The Sun
Also, Boris had a frank meeting with a group of Tory MPs opposed to No Deal this week.
I am told it left him thinking they really might do anything, even bring down the Government, trying to stop it.
Again, this is another argument in favour of going down the Cox route of pushing for concessions that the UK has a reasonable chance of getting.
If Boris can get a deal and get Parliament to show its support for it by October 31 and get Britain out of the EU, he will have triumphed. He will be set fair for a general election next year that would likely deliver him a healthy majority.
This weekend, Boris must decide which approach is most likely to get him there.
To govern is to choose.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9545736/boris-johnson-which-way-brexit-negotiations/