In her new budget, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will have the difficult task of combining costly election platform promises, increased spending for defence to meet NATO’s targets as well as enough social spending to make sure the New Democrats are happy.
At the same time, she will have to make sure to keep a decreasing debt-to-GDP ratio, the Liberals’ core fiscal anchor, to demonstrate that Canada’s finances are sustainable.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has to balance new expectations this year
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Liberals promised $78 billion in five years in new spending in their election platform last fall — which included $25 billion in targeted amounts for health care for provinces and territories and a $15-billion plan to help first-time homebuyers and to build new affordable homes in hopes of solving the housing crisis.
After the fall economic statement, nearly $50 billion of these platform promises had not been budgeted yet. And that does not include the billions that have been added, here and there, to help provincial and territorial health sectors cope with delayed surgeries (an additional $2 billion top up) or to invest in the production of critical minerals for electric vehicles ($2 billion).
The federal government also unveiled more than $9 billion in new spending last week for reducing emissions, with more billions expected for carbon capturing and storage.
Then, there’s defence spending that is expected to ramp up significantly in order to meet NATO’s target of two per cent of GDP. Canada has fallen far below it in recent years, contributing only 1.36 per cent of its target in 2021. And the deal with the NDP will add more social spending to the mix, with investments in a dental care program expected as soon as this year.
The fall economic statement expected a deficit of $58.4 billion in the upcoming year, with the federal debt representing 47.3 per cent of the GDP. That number is expected to go down over time as projected, which could be sustainable, according to Askari, unless another very expensive program promised to the NDP, such as pharmacare, is added to the mix.
“That is the one that is going to get you into trouble in terms of long term sustainability.”
The budget will be presented to Parliament in another 6 & 1/2 hours by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.