How Did Polls & Experts Get the 2016 Election So Wrong?

[Murphy]

This is Fox.

Apparently, it was the voter's fault for not talking to pollsters, or worse, lying to them. Shame on you US citizens for lying, or not sharing what you think, or not telling pollsters how you voted! It's all your fault!

How Did Polls & Experts Get the 2016 Election So Wrong?

Donald Trump defied the pundits and polls to defeat Hillary Clinton in Tuesday’s presidential election.

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, appeared on "Fox & Friends" this morning to explain how pollsters' predictions - which overwhelmingly favored Clinton - were so wrong.

"We were wrong. The entire punditry industry, the entire polling industry, the entire analyst industry – and I want to use this opportunity to take my fair share of the blame – we were wrong," Sabato said. "We, the whole industry, have a lot to learn from this."

He added that hundreds public and private polls had Clinton up in nearly every battleground state, but they did not account for a tremendous turnout of rural and a lower turnout of millennials and African-Americans.

"How do you capture people who maybe won’t talk to pollsters or will fib to pollsters?" Sabato said. "It’s an industry-wide failure, and we’ve got to get it fixed.”

"This is a spectacular event that we will be studying for the rest of our lives."

Watch more above, and let us know what you think in the comments.

How Did Polls & Experts Get the 2016 Election So Wrong? | Fox News Insider

 

[TenPenny]

One of the big reasons is that those who supported Hilary were so vicious, people would say they were supporting her even if they were voting Trump, just to avoid the hate.

 

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

As I said in the other thread, I always lie to pollsters and even exit-pollsters. Sometimes if I am busy, I just hang up on them. It is not against the law nor should it be. Pollsters do not elect the government.

 

[Murphy]

It's become quite a big industry. Not only elections, but new food products, automobiles and a lot of consumer goods. They are in the door with lobbyists now. Have been for a few years.

 

[lone wolf]

It's the first election I can recall - in the 'free' world, anyhow - where people actually seemed afraid of retribution if they revealed they were voting for the wrong candidate. That's more common a while after the votes are counted and the new guy proves to be a complete boob - as in trying to find anyone in Ontario who'll admit voting for Wynne.

 

[Murphy]

I believe that the world depends on statistics too much. Data and tech.

One panelist on CNN alluded to this last night, but when you're in a television studio, it's best to pick your words. He said, paraphrased, we got all this high tech, but we're talking about humans".

The pollsters have become too concerned with data accumulation and have forgotten to watch the faces and judge the moods of people on the street.

 

[selfsame]

I believe that the world depends on statistics too much. Data and tech.

One panelist on CNN alluded to this last night, but when you're in a television studio, it's best to pick your words. He said, paraphrased, we got all this high tech, but we're talking about humans".

The pollsters have become too concerned with data accumulation and have forgotten to watch the faces and judge the moods of people on the street.

I don't agree with you.

 

[Murphy]

It's the first election I can recall - in the 'free' world, anyhow - where people actually seemed afraid of retribution if they revealed they were voting for the wrong candidate. That's more common a while after the votes are counted and the new guy proves to be a complete boob - as in trying to find anyone in Ontario who'll admit voting for Wynne.

This is what confuses me. For the sake of a number, everyone under 40 is used to tech. They put a lot of trust in paypal, Internet banking and using their credit card to buy online. But when exit polled, apparently inaccurate data was collected. Anomymous data, compared to personal data these same people are using daily to buy stuff on the Interwebs.

It seems odd that totally anonymous data is being witheld and sensitive data, less so. Seems backwards to me.

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

One of the big reasons is that those who supported Hilary were so vicious, people would say they were supporting her even if they were voting Trump, just to avoid the hate.

Inorite? I'm sure what won it for Trump was the decent, modest, quiet-spoken kindness of the candidate and his people.

 

[Murphy]

Inorite? I'm sure what won it for Trump was the decent, modest, quiet-spoken kindness of the candidate and his people.

Seems reasonable. The Donald is a *****cat.

 

[Kreskin]

One of the reasons is that's why they vote. It's all guesswork until then. Usually they are pretty close. It's not like she got blown out. She won the overall vote count.

 

[Murphy]

But in a country as large as the US, 1 or 2 hundred thousand votes isn't much. 330 million I think.

 

[personal touch]

Let the good times roll

 

[PoliticalNick]

It's the first election I can recall - in the 'free' world, anyhow - where people actually seemed afraid of retribution if they revealed they were voting for the wrong candidate. That's more common a while after the votes are counted and the new guy proves to be a complete boob - as in trying to find anyone in Ontario who'll admit voting for Wynne.

I have yet to find anyone who voted for the NDP in Alberta...lol

 

[petros]

The media wanted Hillary. Even Bouyancy and Jay Zed led black Illuminaughty failed her.

 

[personal touch]

I have yet to find anyone who voted for the NDP in Alberta...lol

Funny you would say that Political Nick.
I think it was more strategic voting,and where one is positioned in life,plus the voting pattern of the electorate,it was the Republicans turn
You know I never really looked at Trumps victory through the eyes of a gangster or a blue collar opportunist,but when they shared with me how important Trumps victory gives them bountiful opportunities,I was enlightened,and felt my moral shroud tugging upon my mind,feeling uncomfortable,feeling full of regrets,knowing this is the ideology of political will I should cozy up to for success.
I got it thou,and what the designer of these type of elections should know,don't undermine the intelligence of the electorate,old designs eventually come back to roost.
I get it do you?

Blue Collar crime,now there's a term I haven't heard in a while

 

[55Mercury]

Funny you would say that Political Nick.
I think it was more strategic voting,and where one is positioned in life,plus the voting pattern of the electorate,it was the Republicans turn
You know I never really looked at Trumps victory through the eyes of a gangster or a blue collar opportunist,but when they shared with me how important Trumps victory gives them bountiful opportunities,I was enlightened,and felt my moral shroud tugging upon my mind,feeling uncomfortable,feeling full of regrets,knowing this is the ideology of political will I should cozy up to for success.
I got it thou,and what the designer of these type of elections should know,don't undermine the intelligence of the electorate,old designs eventually come back to roost.
I get it do you?

Blue Collar crime,now there's a term I haven't heard in a while

Say, you're not related to megahurtz by any chance?

or to paraphrase ES: huh?

 

[Danbones]

bought and paid for
pure and simple

 

[MHz]

Their contracts don't say they have to get anything right to keep their jobs.

 

[bobnoorduyn]

The one time I accepted to do a poll survey I was asked, "who would you like to see as Canada's next PM?. I answered, "Colin Powell". That left the pollster, and myself, stumped. The pollster because he had no idea who Colin Powell was, and me because the pollster had no idea who Colin Powell was.


BTW, my wife predicted the US election outcome ages ago. She went to bed last night long before all the electoral college counts were in with Hillary behind by only 10, yet declaring the Donald as the winner. I just wish she was as good at picking lottery numbers.