Brexit 2019: the Good, Bad and could-turn-Ugly options


Blackleaf
#1
Nobody knows what might happen with Brexit next week. So all forecasts for 2019 should be taken with a kilo of salt (if the Remainiac survivalists haven’t stockpiled all of the white stuff already).

That said, here are three possible outcomes anyway: a best-case scenario, worst-case scenario and maybe-not-as-bad-as-it-seems case scenario. AKA the Good, Bad, and could-turn-Ugly options.


Brexit 2019: the Good, Bad and could-turn-Ugly options



Mick Hume
Editor-at-Large
1st January 2019



Nobody knows what might happen with Brexit next week. So all forecasts for 2019 should be taken with a kilo of salt (if the Remainiac survivalists haven’t stockpiled all of the white stuff already).

That said, here are three possible outcomes anyway: a best-case scenario, worst-case scenario and maybe-not-as-bad-as-it-seems case scenario. AKA the Good, Bad, and could-turn-Ugly options.

Best case scenario: a No Deal Brexit

We’d love a good exit deal, where the UK frees itself from the anti-democratic grip of the EU, regains its sovereignty, and retains close economic links with EU member states.

But there is no such deal on the table. The EU bureaucracy wants to punish the UK, to teach a lesson to upstart Leave voters who think democracy means the people taking control – and show other European proles what happens when they dare to defy their betters in Brussels.

Which means a No Deal, clean-break Brexit is the only available option which comes close to fulfilling the demand of 17.4million Leave voters. That makes it the Good option for 2019.

We are bombarded with Remain propaganda disguised as reportage, about how No Deal will mean planes falling from the skies and food disappearing from the shelves, amid plagues of frogs, locusts and Russian fake-news bloggers. No doubt there would be some short-term uncertainty. But that is better than the certainty of being stitched up by the EU and UK elites.

Our Remainer government and parliament will do anything possible to stop a No Deal Brexit. But let’s start the New Year with the hopeful view that it could – and should – still happen, if only by default. Laws passed in parliament mean the UK is currently committed to leave the EU on 29 March 2019 – deal or no deal. That can only be altered if parliament manages to pass another law to stop it. Will the divided, incoherent and cowardly bulk of MPs be able to get their act together in time?

There is talk of Remainer Tory MPs joining Labour to stop No Deal, bringing parliamentary politics closer to chaos. But a bit more political chaos may also be our best hope of getting a clean-break Brexit. The trouble is that few are pushing for this. Leave has always been a popular mood more than a political movement. The lack of organised support for No Deal leaves plenty of scope for the conniving elites to get their way. But it’s now no deal, or no democracy.

Worst case scenario: May’s deal, or some other variant of Remain-by-another-name

The deal Remainer prime minister Theresa May has done would potentially leave the UK in a neocolonial relationship to the EU, still under the sway of Euro rules and courts. It is a form of Remain-by-another-name. This is the Bad option for 2019.

It seems certain that the prime minister’s deal will be rejected by MPs, which is why she has postponed the vote. But it seems equally certain that Her May-jesty and her court will keep trying to get some version of it through. They are already ramping up warnings about the only alternative being No Deal, to try to frighten MPs into submission. In this they have the support of powerful lobbies from the media to big business.

Things may look bleak for May. But the Labour Party are only proposing an alternative version of Remain by another name. The only other ‘alternative’ gaining elite support is to try to reimpose a full-blooded Remain, via another vote. Which brings us to…

Maybe-not-as-bad-as-it-seems scenario: another referendum

The ‘People’s Vote’ campaign is Newspeak nonsense. The people pushing for it are embittered Remainer elitists. They care nothing about the demos – the people – and everything about taking back the other part of democracy, kratos: power or control.

Thus as soon as the European Court of Justice ruled that the UK parliament could simply reverse Brexit, many decided that their precious ‘people’s vote’ might not be necessary after all. Professor AC Grayling, the Remainiac’s Remainiac, tweeted triumphantly that, ‘We can cancel Brexit without cost. Control over the nation’s destiny rests in the hands of our MPs.’ And not, apparently, in the hands of the people whose destiny is to be decided for them.

At the same time, Remainer support is growing for a second referendum, from the Tory cabinet to the Corbynite left lobby Momentum, to break the parliamentary impasse and prevent No Deal. As Brendan O’Neill has argued on spiked, we need to get ready to fight the referendum battle again. Leading Remainers from all parties want a referendum choice between May’s deal and Remain. Brexit, and 17.4million Leave voters, would be erased from the ballot paper and history altogether. Others favour a choice between May’s deal and No deal, fancying they could deploy the fear factor to win.

Another referendum is the could-turn-Ugly option. It would be a dirty fight to the finish with all sorts of muck and bullets flying. But it is also the maybe-not-as-bad-as-it-seems scenario. It could be won, against all the fixed odds and in face of the scaremongering – just as the first one was.

If a second referendum offered a phoney choice between Remain and Remain-by-another-name, we’d need a ‘boycott the bogus vote’ campaign. A lower turnout would sink the referendum, whatever the result. If the second referendum offered a more genuine choice – Leave v Remain again, or May’s deal v No deal – then another win for the Brexiteers would be a hammer blow to the elites. Which is why many remain reluctant to risk another public vote and want to keep it a private matter for MPs.

The only certainty for 2019 is that the political class will do anything in its power to thwart the popular Brexit revolt. As I wrote on spiked in June 2016, a week before the referendum, ‘Nobody should be complacent about the willingness of the political elites to respect the will of the people. Even if the Leave campaign was to win the vote, it is already clear that many in both Brussels and Whitehall are planning how they could get around that inconvenient fact.’ That is one Brexit prediction that has proved undeniably true.

Mick Hume is spiked’s editor-at-large. His latest book, Revolting! How the Establishment is Undermining Democracy – and what they’re afraid of, is published by William Collins.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/0...-ugly-options/
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
#2
You know, if stalin's good buddy Churchill hadn't fished you all into this in the first place, you brits would still be running most of the planet...?

Oh well, wooda shooda couda!
 
Blackleaf
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by Danbones View Post

You know, if stalin's good buddy Churchill hadn't fished you all into this in the first place, you brits would still be running most of the planet...?

Oh well, wooda shooda couda!

Churchill wasn't a buddy of Stalin. And Churchill did not advocate Britain joining a European union.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
#4
Brexit: Theresa May looks for way to break deadlock

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...p+news+stories
 
Hoid
#5
The ship has sailed on Britain looking foolish.
 
pgs
Free Thinker
#6
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

The ship has sailed on Britain looking foolish.

Care to elaborate ?
 
White_Unifier
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by pgs View Post

Care to elaborate ?

Hoid, the King of one-liners, elaborate? Good luck with that!
 
Hoid
#8
They look foolish.

What more can you say?
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

They look foolish.

What more can you say?

They have created a crisis for themselves..........starting with that referendum

They might have do do a lot of pride swallowing to come out of this mess with a modicum of dignity.
 
White_Unifier
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by Ocean Breeze View Post

They have created a crisis for themselves..........starting with that referendum
They might have do do a lot of pride swallowing to come out of this mess with a modicum of dignity.

My bad. He does come up with two-liners sometimes.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

My bad. He does come up with two-liners sometimes.

?????
 
White_Unifier
+1
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by Ocean Breeze View Post

?????

Sorry, I intended to address pgs.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
#13
EU says hard Irish border 'obvious' under 'no-deal' Brexit as split emerges with Dublin

https://news.sky.com/story/eu-says-h...ublin-11614837
 
White_Unifier
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by Ocean Breeze View Post

EU says hard Irish border 'obvious' under 'no-deal' Brexit as split emerges with Dublin
https://news.sky.com/story/eu-says-h...ublin-11614837

The UK can choose to leave the border open on its side. No one could blame the UK if the Eu desides to close the border on its side. The EU closing a border is a choice, so the EU should not pretend that it somehow has no choice to close the border.
 
White_Unifier
#15
It appears as if the UK is heading for a hard Brexit. If it does, then the only way out that I could see would be unilateral global free trade in tariffs and quotas and aggressive puruit of more complex free-trade agreements beyond that.

Even that wouldn't cushion the short-term impact of a hard Brexit, but it would at least accelerate the process towards recovery over the long term over the next few decades.
 
Blackleaf
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by Ocean Breeze View Post

They have created a crisis for themselves..........starting with that referendum

They might have do do a lot of pride swallowing to come out of this mess with a modicum of dignity.


The Remainers have created a crisis.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
#17
Brexit: Corbyn tells May to rule out no deal at meeting

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...p+news+stories
 
Blackleaf
+1
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by Ocean Breeze View Post

Brexit: Corbyn tells May to rule out no deal at meeting
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...p+news+stories

May should, and will, tell him to piss off. You can't go through a series of negotiations without the possibility that you can just walk away at any point without agreeing to a deal, because no deal is good enough. I can't understand why certain British politicians want to hobble their own country in the negotiations by wanting to take away the possibility of no deal which
could lead to Britain having to accept a BAD deal.
 
Blackleaf
#19
I love this posted on another forum:

Quote:

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.

EEA - garbage, absolutely no say over the rules Britain would have to adhere to.
Back down and remain - garbage, really scares me because it will cause so many people to disengage from politics for many, many years. I don’t foresee violence, just people justifiably asking what the point of participation in democracy is.
Sick of the EU acting like it has to shoulder literally none of the responsibility for the vote to leave.
May’s deal - garbage. basically letting Europe annex part of the UK. Obviously, obviously, this was going to cause loads of sodding grief.

What a horrible time to live in. I feel so sorry for people on an individual level who are affected by this maelstrom of distrust and antsgonism. It was one of the key reasons why I was a remainer initially. But now, I have just had enough with it all.

I don’t want anyone here to think I have any bad feeling towards Ireland or it’s people. I love this place and have had such a blast living and working here. I don’t excuse or try to justify the idiocy and ineptitude of May and her negotiating team.

But my god, the likes of Juncker and Verhofstadt have shown themselves up to be insufferable twats. Europe can see fit to compromise when they want to. Look at the Swiss deal, look at Norway. Huge compromises. For Britain, because they have got the arse at the shock decision to leave, it’s just the take it or leave it off the shelf aforementioned lumps of ****.

 
White_Unifier
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

I love this posted on another forum:

So are you telling me that once the UK leaves the EU, it would not have it within its soverign authority to adopt unilatral global free trade and would be forced to just live by WTO rules? Who would be forcing it?
 
White_Unifier
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by Ocean Breeze View Post

Brexit: Corbyn tells May to rule out no deal at meeting
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...p+news+stories

'No Deal' is far from an ideal situation, but if the UK were to combbine it with unilateral global free trade, while it would still mean hard times in the short-to-medium-term, it could mean a prosperous UK in the long run.

The real problem is that no one seems to know what the plan is after a No-Deal Brexit. I grant that the UK would have limited options after a No-deal Brexit, but it's not like it would have no options. I can't think of a no-deal scenario that would not cause short-to-medium-term pain, but as long as they have a plan (which does not appear to be the case), they could prosper in the long run at least. But again, only if they have some kind of plan after a no-deal exit.
 
White_Unifier
#22
I do hope (but doubt) that Canada would adopt unilateral free trade towards the UK immediately after a No-deal Brexit. It would benefit both sides whether the UK reciprocates or not. Though should the UK reciprocate, that would only increase the benefit even more.
 
Blackleaf
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

The UK can choose to leave the border open on its side. No one could blame the UK if the Eu desides to close the border on its side. The EU closing a border is a choice, so the EU should not pretend that it somehow has no choice to close the border.

Most EU member states border non-EU member states. Why is that no problem for the EU but the UK-Irish border is?
 
Blackleaf
#24
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

'No Deal' is far from an ideal situation, but if the UK were to combbine it with unilateral global free trade, while it would still mean hard times in the short-to-medium-term, it could mean a prosperous UK in the long run.
The real problem is that no one seems to know what the plan is after a No-Deal Brexit. I grant that the UK would have limited options after a No-deal Brexit, but it's not like it would have no options. I can't think of a no-deal scenario that would not cause short-to-medium-term pain, but as long as they have a plan (which does not appear to be the case), they could prosper in the long run at least. But again, only if they have some kind of plan after a no-deal exit.

No Deal is the best situation and it's what the people voted for.

New polls show a majority of Britons supporting it.
 
White_Unifier
#25
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

No Deal is the best situation and it's what the people voted for.
New polls show a majority of Britons supporting it.

Yes, but what's the plan for the day after a no-deal Brexit? My personal route would be towards immediate unilateral global free trade in tariffs and quotas followed by aggressive negotiation of trade deals beyond that. Still painful, but at least there'd be a light at the end of the tunnel. Bite the bullet let's say.

Alternatively, the UK wallows in WTO rules for generations to come.

There may be other scenarios too; but right now, no one in the Government at least has proposed one. So what is the plan exactly or is there one?
 
White_Unifier
#26
Perhaps the UK should put these guys in charge of Brexit:

https://policyexchange.org.uk/public...al-free-trade/

At least they have a plan.
 
Blackleaf
+1
#27
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

Perhaps the UK should put these guys in charge of Brexit:
https://policyexchange.org.uk/public...al-free-trade/
At least they have a plan.

Britain will soon be free to trade with whoever she wants - another right of sovereign nations - unlike since 1973 when the UK has had unelected foreigners telling her who she can and cannot trade with.

It's another great thing that our wonderful Brexit gives us.

See. Brexit is a great thing. It's why more people have voted for it than have voted for anything else in British history.
 
White_Unifier
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

Britain will soon be free to trade with whoever she wants - another right of sovereign nations - unlike since 1973 when the UK has had unelected foreigners telling her who she can and cannot trade with.
It's another great thing that our wonderful Brexit gives us.

Well let's hope the UK does embrace free trade again. Judging by the Brexit referendum campaign, it seemed more about shuttering the UK's borders, not opening them. So pardon the scepticism. I suppose though that Brexit might force a reticent UK to embrace free trade.
 
Blackleaf
+1
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

Well let's hope the UK does embrace free trade again. Judging by the Brexit referendum campaign, it seemed more about shuttering the UK's borders, not opening them. So pardon the scepticism. I suppose though that Brexit might force a reticent UK to embrace free trade.

Sorry, but I didn't realise that having control of your borders, like Canada and most sovereign states do, is "shuttering" your borders. I always thought it was the normal, conventional, way that sovereign, non-EU member states operate.
 
Blackleaf
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by Ocean Breeze View Post

EU says hard Irish border 'obvious' under 'no-deal' Brexit as split emerges with Dublin
https://news.sky.com/story/eu-says-h...ublin-11614837

A good way to solve the UK-Ireland border "problem" is an Irexit.
 

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