Climategate scientist: There's been no Global Warming since 1995


Blackleaf
#1
The scientist at the centre of a British university's climate change scandal has admitted that he has trouble keeping track on the raw data which is crucial to the theory of climate change.

Professor Jones, of the University of East Anglia, told the BBC yesterday that his colleagues believe he lacks organisational skills and that his office was swamped with piles of paper.

Professor Jones also conceded the possibility that the world was warmer in medieval times than now – suggesting global warming may NOT be a man-made phenomenon.

And he said that there has been no significant warming since 1995.

Professor Jones has been in the spotlight since he stepped down as director of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit after the leaking of emails that sceptics claim show scientists were manipulating data.

The raw data, collected from hundreds of weather stations around the world and analysed by his unit, has been used for years to bolster efforts by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to press governments to cut carbon dioxide emissions.

It's not looking good for the climate change believers.


Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995

By Jonathan Petre
14th February 2010
Daily Mail
  • Data for vital 'hockey stick graph' has gone missing
  • There has been no global warming since 1995
  • Warming periods have happened before - but NOT due to man-made changes

Data: Professor Phil Jones admitted his record keeping is 'not as good as it should be'

The academic at the centre of the ‘Climategate’ affair, whose raw data is crucial to the theory of climate change, has admitted that he has trouble ‘keeping track’ of the information.

Colleagues say that the reason Professor Phil Jones has refused Freedom of Information requests is that he may have actually lost the relevant papers.

Professor Jones told the BBC yesterday there was truth in the observations of colleagues that he lacked organisational skills, that his office was swamped with piles of paper and that his record keeping is ‘not as good as it should be’.

The data is crucial to the famous ‘hockey stick graph’ used by climate change advocates to support the theory.

Professor Jones also conceded the possibility that the world was warmer in medieval times than now – suggesting global warming may not be a man-made phenomenon.

And he said that for the past 15 years there has been no ‘statistically significant’ warming.

The admissions will be seized on by sceptics as fresh evidence that there are serious flaws at the heart of the science of climate change and the orthodoxy that recent rises in temperature are largely man-made.

Professor Jones has been in the spotlight since he stepped down as director of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit after the leaking of emails that sceptics claim show scientists were manipulating data.

The raw data, collected from hundreds of weather stations around the world and analysed by his unit, has been used for years to bolster efforts by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to press governments to cut carbon dioxide emissions.


Climate change scandal: The University of East Anglia in Norwich, Norfolk

Following the leak of the emails, Professor Jones has been accused of ‘scientific fraud’ for allegedly deliberately suppressing information and refusing to share vital data with critics.

Discussing the interview, the BBC’s environmental analyst Roger Harrabin said he had spoken to colleagues of Professor Jones who had told him that his strengths included integrity and doggedness but not record-keeping and office tidying.

Mr Harrabin, who conducted the interview for the BBC’s website, said the professor had been collating tens of thousands of pieces of data from around the world to produce a coherent record of temperature change.

That material has been used to produce the ‘hockey stick graph’ which is relatively flat for centuries before rising steeply in recent decades.

According to Mr Harrabin, colleagues of Professor Jones said ‘his office is piled high with paper, fragments from over the years, tens of thousands of pieces of paper, and they suspect what happened was he took in the raw data to a central database and then let the pieces of paper go because he never realised that 20 years later he would be held to account over them’.

Asked by Mr Harrabin about these issues, Professor Jones admitted the lack of organisation in the system had contributed to his reluctance to share data with critics, which he regretted.

Enlarge

But he denied he had cheated over the data or unfairly influenced the scientific process, and said he still believed recent temperature rises were predominantly man-made.

Asked about whether he lost track of data, Professor Jones said: ‘There is some truth in that. We do have a trail of where the weather stations have come from but it’s probably not as good as it should be.

‘There’s a continual updating of the dataset. Keeping track of everything is difficult.

Some countries will do lots of checking on their data then issue improved data, so it can be very difficult. We have improved but we have to improve more.’

He also agreed that there had been two periods which experienced similar warming, from 1910 to 1940 and from 1975 to 1998, but said these could be explained by natural phenomena whereas more recent warming could not.

He further admitted that in the last 15 years there had been no ‘statistically significant’ warming, although he argued this was a blip rather than the long-term trend.

And he said that the debate over whether the world could have been even warmer than now during the medieval period, when there is evidence of high temperatures in northern countries, was far from settled.

Sceptics believe there is strong evidence that the world was warmer between about 800 and 1300 AD than now because of evidence of high temperatures in northern countries.

But climate change advocates have dismissed this as false or only applying to the northern part of the world.

Professor Jones departed from this consensus when he said: ‘There is much debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not. The MWP is most clearly expressed in parts of North America, the North Atlantic and Europe and parts of Asia.

‘For it to be global in extent, the MWP would need to be seen clearly in more records from the tropical regions and the Southern hemisphere. There are very few palaeoclimatic records for these latter two regions.

‘Of course, if the MWP was shown to be global in extent and as warm or warmer than today, then obviously the late 20th Century warmth would not be unprecedented. On the other hand, if the MWP was global, but was less warm than today, then the current warmth would be unprecedented.’

Sceptics said this was the first time a senior scientist working with the IPCC had admitted to the possibility that the Medieval Warming Period could have been global, and therefore the world could have been hotter then than now.

Professor Jones criticised those who complained he had not shared his data with them, saying they could always collate their own from publicly available material in the US. And he said the climate had not cooled ‘until recently – and then barely at all.

The trend is a warming trend’.

Mr Harrabin told Radio 4’s Today programme that, despite the controversies, there still appeared to be no fundamental flaws in the majority scientific view that climate change was largely man-made.

But Dr Benny Pieser, director of the sceptical Global Warming Policy Foundation, said Professor Jones’s ‘excuses’ for his failure to share data were hollow as he had shared it with colleagues and ‘mates’.

He said that until all the data was released, sceptics could not test it to see if it supported the conclusions claimed by climate change advocates.

He added that the professor’s concessions over medieval warming were ‘significant’ because they were his first public admission that the science was not settled.

dailymail.co.uk
 
Walter
#2
There are some in this forum who think the climate has warmed up. Oh,...who to believe?
 
darkbeaver
#3
There are many others who have snow shovel blisters to prove the lie of global warming. Texans with snow shovel blisters, imagine that. India leads the world in freezing deaths, imagine that. Wildlife is freezing to death in Florida, imagine that.
The world needs honest scientists not the legions of paid liars we have in high places.
 
Liberalman
#4
who is going to check the volcanoes on the carbon release during an eruption and under cap and trade would the have to pay extra for the volcanoes?
 
Walter
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by Liberalman View Post

who is going to check the volcanoes on the carbon release during an eruption and under cap and trade would the have to pay extra for the volcanoes?

Precious. Turdoh would have been the first on the cap-and-trade wagon.
 
eh1eh
#6
Quote: Originally Posted by darkbeaver View Post

There are many others who have snow shovel blisters to prove the lie of global warming. Texans with snow shovel blisters, imagine that. India leads the world in freezing deaths, imagine that. Wildlife is freezing to death in Florida, imagine that.
The world needs honest scientists not the legions of paid liars we have in high places.

That is counter intuitive to 'global warming' but does fit the 'climate change' scenario as these things are changes, right.
 
Francis2004
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by Walter View Post

There are some in this forum who think the climate has warmed up. Oh,...who to believe?

Nope, we in Vancouver don't believe that having no snow for the first time in our history in January has anything to do with any climate heating up.. The fact we have had extra warm weather and the Olympics are in for a rough ride while the south of the US is in the worse winter snow storms have nothing to do with weather patterns gone astray.

What would ever give anyone the idea our weather is having complications..

I certainly don't deny much of it is out of man's control, but I can't see how we can deny any complicity in this when we create so much waste and gases.. Seems we are in denial of facts.. But that's just my observation and opinions..
 
#juan
#8
And he said that there has been no significant warming since 1995.

Gee whizz.....
Heading into the last part of Febuary we have had no snow this Winter and I don't think we have had any freezing temperatures either. We've never had crocuses and Snowdrops in January before either. Somebody must have forgotten to turn the thermostat down...
 
darkbeaver
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by eh1eh View Post

That is counter intuitive to 'global warming' but does fit the 'climate change' scenario as these things are changes, right.

It certainly does, but we haven't forgotten the recent huge, global, global warming scare. This planet actually has a constantly variable charge controlled climate. But that will be argued till the bitter end. There is absolutely nothing we can do to turn up the sun. Guess why they decided to preach global warming and the evils of CO2? Because it would make billions and fix the yoke of the New Worldly Order onto every pair of underling shoulders, for ever.
 
Ron in Regina
#10
This is an El Nino year.....and the El Nino cycle has been going on for a while
now since (???) the continents have drifted into their current positions and
perhaps long before that.

What was winter like in 1998 with the last really big El Nino event? With that in
mind, having the Winter Olympics in Vancouver in an El Nino year was just poor
planning.

I'm sure evidence can be presented that there has been no global warming in the
last decade or more AND that the last 10-15 years have been the warmest on
record....depending on who's massaging the data for their own agendas.
 
Ron in Regina
#11
From post #42 in: http://forums.canadiancontent.net/ne...eply&p=1220394


Quote: Originally Posted by bobnoorduyn View Post

As I've said in other posts, I have been a party to the gathering and dissemination of statistical data and know how it is done to achieve a desired result. Statistics govern your expectations of a certain demographic? Trust them at your peril.

 
L Gilbert
#12
Quote:

The scientist at the centre of a British university's climate change scandal has admitted that he has trouble keeping track on the raw data which is crucial to the theory of climate change.

Quote:

And he said that there has been no significant warming since 1995.

If the amount of data confuses the guy, how would he know there's been no warming since '95?
If there's been no warming since '95, don'tcha think oceans would have quit rising, permafrost would still be PERMAfrost, and glaciers would be doing just fine? DUH
 
Ron in Regina
#13
Quote: Originally Posted by #juan View Post

And he said that there has been no significant warming since 1995.

Gee whizz..... Heading into the last part of Febuary we have had no snow this Winter and I don't think we have had any freezing temperatures either. We've never had crocuses and Snowdrops in January before either. Somebody must have forgotten to turn the thermostat down...


What was winter in Vancouver like in 1998? Out here on the Prairies, on Christmas
day, after the Turkey but before the dishes....I went outside to enjoy a cigarette in the
Sun as it was a beautiful day.....and could hear motorcycles driving around. That was
something I've never experienced in Saskatchewan on X-Mas day, before or since.
That was Christmas Day in 1998 out here.
 
L Gilbert
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by Ron in Regina View Post

What was winter in Vancouver like in 1998? Out here on the Prairies, on Christmas
day, after the Turkey but before the dishes....I went outside to enjoy a cigarette in the
Sun as it was a beautiful day.....and could hear motorcycles driving around. That was
something I've never experienced in Saskatchewan on X-Mas day, before or since.
That was Christmas Day in 1998 out here.

Yeah. The data shows '98 to have been a hot one. But people screwed around with the data so it didn't really happen and it was all in your head, Ron.
I can understand why people get cranky sometimes. They refuse to dissolve their ignorance and in doing so, they make others scorn them. So being scorned incessantly to a fairly large degree would make anyone cranky, I think.
 
Ron in Regina
#15
In my head or not, it was pretty darn nice, and I haven't imagined a nicer Winter since.
 
#juan
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by Ron in Regina View Post

What was winter in Vancouver like in 1998? Out here on the Prairies, on Christmas
day, after the Turkey but before the dishes....I went outside to enjoy a cigarette in the
Sun as it was a beautiful day.....and could hear motorcycles driving around. That was
something I've never experienced in Saskatchewan on X-Mas day, before or since.
That was Christmas Day in 1998 out here.

I honestly don't remember what the Winter was like in 1998. I do know that we've always had snow in Nanaimo as long as I can remember. My wife's tulips were out in early Febuary until the deer ate them.
 
Francis2004
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by #juan View Post

I honestly don't remember what the Winter was like in 1998. I do know that we've always had snow in Nanaimo as long as I can remember. My wife's tulips were out in early Febuary until the deer ate them.

Here is a weather account for Vancouver.. It shows no snow but many Minus days.. Problem with this, is that many days are left blank..

December 1997
CLIMATE Vancouver Automatic Weather Reporting System - Historical December 1997 - Weather

January 1998
CLIMATE Vancouver Automatic Weather Reporting System - Historical January 1998 - Weather

February 1998
CLIMATE Vancouver Automatic Weather Reporting System - Historical February 1998 - Weather

Nothing is perfect and missing data leaves much to the imagination..
 
Francis2004
#18
Ha ha ha, right after posting those weather links I found this.. How ironic..

Again, what time in 1998 are we looking for.. January or December..

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Winter Months

Wondering about snow in Vancouver?
Yes, if you visit in the winter months, you could possibly see some snow falling, even in downtown Vancouver. It doesn't usually last long, though. It's usually the slushy type of snow, than doesn't stick on the ground for very long. Many Vancouverites prefer it that way, just having snow on the mountains, and not in the city and suburbs!
Here's a photo of a rare event in Vancouver... a white Christmas eve, in 1998. It was only the seventh one, in 30 years!


One of the benefits of Vancouver's location, is that the beach, city and mountains are all easily accessible within a short time. So if you have a yearning for snow in the colder months, you could take a quick trip up to the mountain resorts, like Whistler, Cypress, Grouse Mountain or Mount Seymour.
Even when the weather isn't co-operative, there are many indoor activities to enjoy in Vancouver. We'll be adding a rainy day suggestions page, for information and tips for those cooler days, so check back again soon for updates.

Vancouver Weather Information
 
Bar Sinister
#19
Global warming skeptics are still asking the wrong question. It is not a matter of whether the world is warming up or not, but whether it will warm up if greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere faster than nature can remove them. I am continually reminded of the captain of the Titanic as he sped across the North Atlantic - Still no iceberg. Maintain speed.

I am even more surprised that people still interpret the weather in their local area as proof of their point of view. Weather and climate are averages. The fact that it is snowing or not snowing in your back yard has little to do with climate change - it is the worldwide trend that is important. It is snowing in Florida - so what - Brazil is having floods brought on by torrential rain.
 
Tonington
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by Ron in Regina View Post


What was winter like in 1998 with the last really big El Nino event? With that in
mind, having the Winter Olympics in Vancouver in an El Nino year was just poor
planning.



The Olympic games are announced years in advance of the games. El Nino-Southern Oscillations have a period of anywhere between 3 and 7 years. It's not easilly predictable what phase and how strong it will be in eight years time.

Quote:

I'm sure evidence can be presented that there has been no global warming in the

Quote:

last decade or more AND that the last 10-15 years have been the warmest on
record....depending on who's massaging the data for their own agendas.

No, every temperature record out there shows global warming over the last 10-15 years, or more accurately does not show evidence that global warming has stopped. Anyone who says otherwise is ignorant about the relevant statistics.
 
Ron in Regina
#21
Like the scientist(s?) at the University of East Anglia in the opening post.
If anyone would be ignorant of the relevant statistics, it would be the Director
of the Climatic Research Unit at that University. ()

He believes in Man-Made Global Warming. I checked. I've read the article
below and have discovered the answer to many of the questions asked on
this subject. That would be, "See again my answer to D."

BBC News - Q&A: Professor Phil Jones


This "Phil Jones" has had a tough road lately, and is understandably defensive.
 
Tonington
#22
The last ten years for GISS, HadCRUT, UAH, and RSS. All slopes are positive:


For the last 15 years, all slopes are positive:


Like I said, more accurately there has been no proof that global warming has stopped. What Phil Jones said is that the trend over the last 15 years is not statistically significant. That's true. If that is a shock to anyone, like I said, they don't understand statistics. If something is significant, it means the signal is large enough to be distinguished from the noise. Hence why short term trends don't say much, and why all that malarky about no global warming since 1998, or whatever that morphing meme changes to is an irrelevant piece of garbage.
 
darkbeaver
#23
The statistics have killed oranges in Florida. The statistics have to be plowed off the roads in the UK. Where do all those plotted temperatures come from I wonder?
 
Tonington
#24
Quote: Originally Posted by darkbeaver View Post

The statistics have killed oranges in Florida. The statistics have to be plowed off the roads in the UK. Where do all those plotted temperatures come from I wonder?

The statistics killed nothing. To say there has been no global warming for 15 years based on what Jones said is a misunderstanding of statistics. The past 15 years as part of a longer time series is significant.

Here is a good start for those who don't understand:
Riddle me this … « Open Mind

The temperatures come from ground based thermometers and microwave sounding units aboard orbiting satellites.
 
Niflmir
#25
Am I the only person that noticed the complete lack of direct quotations in that article?

Also, since when did people trust authorities? Enough data has always been public for people to analyse it themselves.
 
Tonington
#26
Quote: Originally Posted by Niflmir View Post

Am I the only person that noticed the complete lack of direct quotations in that article?

The BBC interview is much better.
 

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