Oil Not So Limited After All?


Canucklehead
#1
Asia Times- Russia is Far From Oil's Peak

Abiotic Oil - Science or Politics]

Abiotic Oil - A Link to More Links

OK, these articles are but three of the many I have skimmed over in the past couple of weeks and while there is still considerable debate in the Western World (and a fair bit in Russia too) this looks like it's something to be researched by Western Nations since there are indications that the Russians could be on to something.

- the links above are both for and against the theory but with little scientific evidence available outside Russia these days it seems like they may well be hiding something
 
Kreskin
#2
Interesting stuff.
 
Just the Facts
#3
I think it was Paul Rodriguez who said the world is running out of the 40 dollar a barrel oil....there lots of the 120 dollar a barrel oil
 
Toro
#4
Cambridge Energy Research Associates says we're nowhere near peak oil.

http://runningofthebulls.typepad.com...disagrees.html
 
Walter
#5
From The Times
January 18, 2008

World not running out of oil, say experts

Carl Mortished, World Business Editor

Doom-laden forecasts that world oil supplies are poised to fall off the edge of a cliff are wide of the mark, according to leading oil industry experts who gave warning that human factors, not geology, will drive the oil market.
A landmark study of more than 800 oilfields by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (Cera) has concluded that rates of decline are only 4.5 per cent a year, almost half the rate previously believed, leading the consultancy to conclude that oil output will continue to rise over the next decade.
Peter Jackson, the report's author, said: “We will be able to grow supply to well over 100million barrels per day by 2017.” Current world oil output is in the region of 85million barrels a day.
The optimistic view of the world's oil resource was also given support by BP's chief economist, Peter Davies, who dismissed theories of “Peak Oil” as fallacious. Instead, he gave warning that world oil production would peak as demand weakened, because of political constraints, including taxation and government efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.


Speaking to the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil, Mr Davies said that peaks in world production had been wrongly predicted throughout history but he agreed that oil might peak within a generation “as a result of a peaking of demand rather than supply”.
He said it was inconceivable that oil consumption would be unaffected by government policies to reduce carbon emissions. “There is a distinct possibilty that global oil consumption could peak as a result of such climate policies,” Mr Davies said.
The BP economist's remarks were echoed yesterday by Mr Jackson. “It is the above-ground risks that will influence the rate [of oil output],” he said.
Cera analysed the output of 811 oilfields, which produce 19 billion barrels a year, out of total world output of 32 billion. These included many of the giants, including Saudi Arabia's Ghawar, the largest known oilfield, which has been at the centre of the debate between peak oil analysts and their detractors.
In his book Twilight in the Desert, Matthew Simmons of Simmons & Co, the consultancy, said the big Saudi fields reached their peak output in 1981 but Cera yesterday said that Ghawar was not failing. “There is no technical evidence that Ghawar is about to decline,” said Mr Jackson.
Cera reckons that oil output, including unconventional oil, such as tar sands, could allow oil to peak at much higher levels of as much as 112 million barrels per day, with average rates of more than 100million bpd.
The Cera analysis targeted oilfields producing more than 10,000 barrels a day of conventional oil and concluded that overall output was declining at a rate of 4.5 per cent a year and that field decline rates were not increasing.
This is much lower than the 7 to 8percent average rate that is generally assumed in the industry. Typically, Peak Oil theorists believe that the output of oil reserves can be plotted on a graph as a bell curve, rising to a peak and then falling rapidly.
It was proposed in 1950 by M King Hubbert, a US geologist, who successfully predicted the peak of onshore oil production in the United States.
His analysis is disputed by many geologists today, who argue that technology has changed the equation, allowing oil companies to produce more oil from reservoirs than was previously possible.
Meanwhile, increases in the price of oil has made the extraction of difficult reserves economically viable.
Last edited by Walter; Jan 18th, 2008 at 02:50 PM..
 
lone wolf
#6
How much of our water supply has to be ruined to get this oil out of the ground?

Woof!
Last edited by lone wolf; Jan 18th, 2008 at 03:13 PM..
 
darkbeaver
#7
Abiotic oil is not a theroy, it has been proven not only by russians but under laboratory conditions. Squeeze the rocks and out comes oil. Of course you have to squeeze really hard.
 
Lester
#8
I remember reading about this years ago, it was dismissed as a crackpot myth-not saying that it is mind you- These Governments feed us so much crap you never know what to beleive- gettin awful sick of this deception, almost makes you want to drop off the grid.
 
boiler
#9
And look at the good example in Canada where they are squeezing oil out of the frozen sand/soil.
 
Toro
#10
The CEO of Shell disagrees.

http://runningofthebulls.typepad.com...tart-runn.html
 
gerryh
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Toro View Post

The CEO of Shell disagrees.

http://runningofthebulls.typepad.com...tart-runn.html


The CEO of Shell is not the most unbiased person to get a report on the supply of oil. It is to his and his company's advantage for the supply to be underestimated, as it would push up prices.
 
Lester
#12
I've been hearing that exxon bought up 30 billion dollars worth of its own shares last year, why would they do that? are they getting ready to close the doors someday?
 
boiler
#13
The CEO of shell must under estimate his stock to allow prices to rise, and cut predictions on how much profit they will make. Similarly Exxon would buy back shares if they are realizing how much profit they can keep.
 
Lester
#14
I supppose with fewer shares around it would jack up the dividend on those remaining - if this continues how long would it be before the only shares around were those belonging to the board of directors? wouldn't that be a sweet deal for them.
 
boiler
#15
That's right now you are thinking "sideways"
 
Toro
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by boiler View Post

The CEO of shell must under estimate his stock to allow prices to rise, and cut predictions on how much profit they will make. Similarly Exxon would buy back shares if they are realizing how much profit they can keep.

Exxon is buying back about $30 billion in stock per year.
 
Lester
#17
So what I'm saying is(Hypothetically) Exxon could buy all their stock back by 2030, or thereabouts-except for the Board of directors stock of which it would be reasonable to say would be worth the combined total of all stock aquired during the buyback from 2006 - 2030 - Please feel free to correct me if I misunderstand.

Lester
 
Walter
#18
The World Has Plenty of Oil

By NANSEN G. SALERI
March 4, 2008; Page A17

Many energy analysts view the ongoing waltz of crude prices with the mystical $100 mark -- notwithstanding the dollar's anemia -- as another sign of the beginning of the end for the oil era. "[A]t the furthest out, it will be a crisis in 2008 to 2012," declares Matthew Simmons, the most vocal voice among the "neo-peak-oil" club. Tempering this pessimism only slightly is the viewpoint gaining ground among many industry leaders, who argue that daily production by 2030 of 100 million barrels will be difficult.
In fact, we are nowhere close to reaching a peak in global oil supplies.

Given a set of assumptions, forecasting the peak-oil-point -- defined as the onset of global production decline -- is a relatively trivial problem. Four primary factors will pinpoint its exact timing. The trivial becomes far more complex because the four factors -- resources in place (how many barrels initially underground), recovery efficiency (what percentage is ultimately recoverable), rate of consumption, and state of depletion at peak (how empty is the global tank when decline kicks in) -- are inherently uncertain.
- What are the global resources in place? Estimates vary. But approximately six to eight trillion barrels each for conventional and unconventional oil resources (shale oil, tar sands, extra heavy oil) represent probable figures -- inclusive of future discoveries. As a matter of context, the globe has consumed only one out of a grand total of 12 to 16 trillion barrels underground.
- What percentage of global resources is ultimately recoverable? The industry recovers an average of only one out of three barrels of conventional resources underground and considerably less for the unconventional.
This benchmark, established over the past century, is poised to change upward. Modern science and unfolding technologies will, in all likelihood, double recovery efficiencies. Even a 10% gain in extraction efficiency on a global scale will unlock 1.2 to 1.6 trillion barrels of extra resources -- an additional 50-year supply at current consumption rates.
The impact of modern oil extraction techniques is already evident across the globe. Abqaiq and Ghawar, two of the flagship oil fields of Saudi Arabia, are well on their way to recover at least two out of three barrels underground -- in the process raising recovery expectations for the remainder of the Kingdom's oil assets, which account for one quarter of world reserves.
Are the lessons and successes of Ghawar transferable to the countless struggling fields around the world -- most conspicuously in Venezuela, Mexico, Iran or the former Soviet Union -- where irreversible declines in production are mistakenly accepted as the norm and in fact fuel the "neo-peak-oil" alarmism? The answer is a definitive yes.
Hundred-dollar oil will provide a clear incentive for reinvigorating fields and unlocking extra barrels through the use of new technologies. The consequences for emerging oil-rich regions such as Iraq can be far more rewarding. By 2040 the country's production and reserves might potentially rival those of Saudi Arabia.
Paradoxically, high crude prices may temporarily mask the inefficiencies of others, which may still remain profitable despite continuing to use 1960-vintage production methods. But modernism will inevitably prevail: The national oil companies that hold over 90% of the earth's conventional oil endowment will be pressed to adopt new and better technologies.
- What will be the average rate of crude consumption between now and peak oil? Current daily global consumption stands around 86 million barrels, with projected annual increases ranging from 0% to 2% depending on various economic outlooks. Thus average consumption levels ranging from 90 to 110 million barrels represent a reasonable bracket. Any economic slowdown -- as intimated by the recent tremors in the global equity markets -- will favor the lower end of this spectrum.
This is not to suggest that global supply capacity will grow steadily unimpeded by bottlenecks -- manpower, access, resource nationalism, legacy issues, logistical constraints, etc. -- within the energy equation. However, near-term obstacles do not determine the global supply ceiling at 2030 or 2050. Market forces, given the benefit of time and the burgeoning mobility of technology and innovation across borders, will tame transitional obstacles.
- When will peak oil arrive? This widely accepted tipping point -- 50% of ultimately recoverable resources consumed -- is largely a tribute to King Hubbert, a distinguished Shell geologist who predicted the peak oil point for the U.S. lower 48 states. While his timing was very good (he forecast 1968 versus 1970 in fact), he underestimated peak daily production (9.5 million barrels actual versus eight million estimated).
But modern extraction methods will undoubtedly stretch Hubbert's "50% assumption," which was based on Sputnik-era technologies. Even a modest shift -- to 55% of recoverable resources consumed -- will delay the onset by 20-25 years.
Where do reasonable assumptions surrounding peak oil lead us? My view, subjective and imprecise, points to a period between 2045 and 2067 as the most likely outcome.
Cambridge Energy Associates forecasts the global daily liquids production to rise to 115 million barrels by 2017 versus 86 million at present. Instead of a sharp peak per Hubbert's model, an undulating, multi-decade long plateau production era sets in -- i.e., no sudden-death ending.
The world is not running out of oil anytime soon. A gradual transitioning on the global scale away from a fossil-based energy system may in fact happen during the 21st century. The root causes, however, will most likely have less to do with lack of supplies and far more with superior alternatives. The overused observation that "the Stone Age did not end due to a lack of stones" may in fact find its match.
The solutions to global energy needs require an intelligent integration of environmental, geopolitical and technical perspectives each with its own subsets of complexity. On one of these -- the oil supply component -- the news is positive. Sufficient liquid crude supplies do exist to sustain production rates at or near 100 million barrels per day almost to the end of this century.
Technology matters. The benefits of scientific advancement observable in the production of better mobile phones, TVs and life-extending pharmaceuticals will not, somehow, bypass the extraction of usable oil resources. To argue otherwise distracts from a focused debate on what the correct energy-policy priorities should be, both for the United States and the world community at large.
Mr. Saleri, president and CEO of Quantum Reservoir Impact in Houston, was formerly head of reservoir management for Saudi Aramco.
 
Zzarchov
#19
Lets remember people, we can make oil out of nothing in a laboratory.

The problem is oil is only such a great fuel source because its premade, you just dig up and bam, useful energy.

Making it is the difference between living next to a wild orchard and having to turn a forest into an apple orchard.