New Report Suggests ‘High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming to an End’ in 2050


B00Mer
-1
#1
New Report Suggests ‘High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming to an End’ in 2050



A harrowing scenario analysis of how human civilization might collapse in coming decades due to climate change has been endorsed by a former Australian defense chief and senior royal navy commander.

The analysis, published by the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, a think-tank in Melbourne, Australia, describes climate change as “a near- to mid-term existential threat to human civilization” and sets out a plausible scenario of where business-as-usual could lead over the next 30 years.

The paper argues that the potentially “extremely serious outcomes” of climate-related security threats are often far more probable than conventionally assumed, but almost impossible to quantify because they “fall outside the human experience of the last thousand years.”

On our current trajectory, the report warns, “planetary and human systems [are] reaching a ‘point of no return’ by mid-century, in which the prospect of a largely uninhabitable Earth leads to the breakdown of nations and the international order.”



The only way to avoid the risks of this scenario is what the report describes as “akin in scale to the World War II emergency mobilization”—but this time focused on rapidly building out a zero-emissions industrial system to set in train the restoration of a safe climate.

The scenario warns that our current trajectory will likely lock in at least 3 degrees Celsius (C) of global heating, which in turn could trigger further amplifying feedbacks unleashing further warming. This would drive the accelerating collapse of key ecosystems “including coral reef systems, the Amazon rainforest and in the Arctic.”

The results would be devastating. Some one billion people would be forced to attempt to relocate from unlivable conditions, and two billion would face scarcity of water supplies. Agriculture would collapse in the sub-tropics, and food production would suffer dramatically worldwide. The internal cohesion of nation-states like the US and China would unravel.

“Even for 2°C of warming, more than a billion people may need to be relocated and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model with a high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end,” the report notes.

The new policy briefing is written by David Spratt, Breakthrough’s research director and Ian Dunlop, a former senior executive of Royal Dutch Shell who previously chaired the Australian Coal Association.

Read More: Scientists Warn the UN of Capitalism's Imminent Demise

In the briefing’s foreword, retired Admiral Chris Barrie—Chief of the Australian Defence Force from 1998 to 2002 and former Deputy Chief of the Australian Navy—commends the paper for laying “bare the unvarnished truth about the desperate situation humans, and our planet, are in, painting a disturbing picture of the real possibility that human life on Earth may be on the way to extinction, in the most horrible way.”

Barrie now works for the Climate Change Institute at Australian National University, Canberra.

Spratt told Motherboard that a key reason the risks are not understood is that “much knowledge produced for policymakers is too conservative. Because the risks are now existential, a new approach to climate and security risk assessment is required using scenario analysis.”

Last October, Motherboard reported on scientific evidence that the UN’s summary report for government policymakers on climate change—whose findings were widely recognized as “devastating”—were in fact too optimistic.

While the Breakthrough scenario sets out some of the more ‘high end’ risk possibilities, it is often not possible to meaningfully quantify their probabilities. As a result, the authors emphasize that conventional risk approaches tend to downplay worst-case scenarios despite their plausibility.

Spratt and Dunlop’s 2050 scenario illustrates how easy it could be to end up in an accelerating runaway climate scenario which would lead to a largely uninhabitable planet within just a few decades.

“A high-end 2050 scenario finds a world in social breakdown and outright chaos,” said Spratt. “But a short window of opportunity exists for an emergency, global mobilization of resources, in which the logistical and planning experiences of the national security sector could play a valuable role.”

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/5...=vicetwitterus




Meh, 2050 I will already be dead.. sucks to be you kids..
 
Jinentonix
+3
#2
Updated data from NASA satellite instruments reveal the Earth’s polar ice caps have not receded at all since the satellite instruments began measuring the ice caps in 1979. Since the end of 2012, moreover, total polar ice extent has largely remained above the post-1979 average. The updated data contradict one of the most frequently asserted global warming claims – that global warming is causing the polar ice caps to recede.

The timing of the 1979 NASA satellite instrument launch could not have been better for global warming alarmists. The late 1970s marked the end of a 30-year cooling trend. As a result, the polar ice caps were quite likely more extensive than they had been since at least the 1920s. Nevertheless, this abnormally extensive 1979 polar ice extent would appear to be the “normal” baseline when comparing post-1979 polar ice extent.

Updated NASA satellite data show the polar ice caps remained at approximately their 1979 extent until the middle of the last decade. Beginning in 2005, however, polar ice modestly receded for several years. By 2012, polar sea ice had receded by approximately 10 percent from 1979 measurements. (Total polar ice area – factoring in both sea and land ice – had receded by much less than 10 percent, but alarmists focused on the sea ice loss as “proof” of a global warming crisis.)

A 10-percent decline in polar sea ice is not very remarkable, especially considering the 1979 baseline was abnormally high anyway. Regardless, global warming activists and a compliant news media frequently and vociferously claimed the modest polar ice cap retreat was a sign of impending catastrophe. Al Gore even predicted the Arctic ice cap could completely disappear by 2014.

In late 2012, however, polar ice dramatically rebounded and quickly surpassed the post-1979 average. Ever since, the polar ice caps have been at a greater average extent than the post-1979 mean.

Now, in May 2015, the updated NASA data show polar sea ice is approximately 5 percent above the post-1979 average.

During the modest decline in 2005 through 2012, the media presented a daily barrage of melting ice cap stories. Since the ice caps rebounded – and then some – how have the media reported the issue?

The frequency of polar ice cap stories may have abated, but the tone and content has not changed at all. Here are some of the titles of news items I pulled yesterday from the front two pages of a Google News search for “polar ice caps”:

“Climate change is melting more than just the polar ice caps”

“2020: Antarctic ice shelf could collapse”

“An Arctic ice cap’s shockingly rapid slide into the sea”

“New satellite maps show polar ice caps melting at ‘unprecedented rate’”

The only Google News items even hinting that the polar ice caps may not have melted so much (indeed not at all) came from overtly conservative websites. The “mainstream” media is alternating between maintaining radio silence on the extended run of above-average polar ice and falsely asserting the polar ice caps are receding at an alarming rate.

To be sure, receding polar ice caps are an expected result of the modest global warming we can expect in the years ahead. In and of themselves, receding polar ice caps have little if any negative impact on human health and welfare, and likely a positive benefit by opening up previously ice-entombed land to human, animal, and plant life. Nevertheless, polar ice cap extent will likely be a measuring stick for how much the planet is or is not warming.

The Earth has warmed modestly since the Little Ice Age ended a little over 100 years ago, and the Earth will likely continue to warm modestly as a result of natural and human factors. As a result, at some point in time, NASA satellite instruments should begin to report a modest retreat of polar ice caps. The modest retreat – like that which happened briefly from 2005 through 2012 – would not be proof or evidence of a global warming crisis. Such a retreat would merely illustrate that global temperatures are continuing their gradual recovery from the Little Ice Age. Such a recovery – despite alarmist claims to the contrary – would not be uniformly or even on balance detrimental to human health and welfare. Instead, an avalanche of scientific evidence indicates recently warming temperatures have significantly improved human health and welfare, just as warming temperatures have always done.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesta.../#171901f22892

So basically what the leftist have done is take a natural cycle and declared it a human caused emergency.

As for the last sentence in the article, it has been clearly demonstrated that every species of human evolved during warming periods. Almost every major civilization and empire came to be during warming periods as well. And during every single one of those events, the average global temps were higher than they are today.
 
Cliffy
-1
#3
Millions of tons of toxic waste and garbage dumped into the environment daily and people think that there is no cumulative effect. This is not a single cause issue. Climate change is real. It's causes are many but to think that CO2 is the cause or the sun cycles or natural Earth cycles can explain what is happening is just plain ignorant. We are destroying our ability to survive on this planet and there is no alternative planet out there that we can escape to. We either clean up this one or go the way of the dinosaurs. Simple as that.
Greed an stupidity will get us all killed. I'll be dead long before that happens but I worry about the children and their children. We are leaving them a colossal clusterfukk.
 
Twin_Moose
+4
#4  Top Rated Post
Why is Carbon blamed then Cliffy? Why wasn't it called clean up your damn garbage tax Cliffy?
 
petros
+3
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by Cliffy View Post

Millions of tons of toxic waste and garbage dumped into the environment daily and people think that there is no cumulative effect. This is not a single cause issue. Climate change is real. It's causes are many but to think that CO2 is the cause or the sun cycles or natural Earth cycles can explain what is happening is just plain ignorant. We are destroying our ability to survive on this planet and there is no alternative planet out there that we can escape to. We either clean up this one or go the way of the dinosaurs. Simple as that.
Greed an stupidity will get us all killed. I'll be dead long before that happens but I worry about the children and their children. We are leaving them a colossal clusterfukk.

What country are you referring to? Canada is pretty damn clean. US too.
 
Hoid
#6
Quote: Originally Posted by Jinentonix View Post

Updated data from NASA satellite instruments reveal the Earth’s polar ice caps have not receded at all since the satellite instruments began measuring the ice caps in 1979. Since the end of 2012, moreover, total polar ice extent has largely remained above the post-1979 average. The updated data contradict one of the most frequently asserted global warming claims – that global warming is causing the polar ice caps to recede.

The timing of the 1979 NASA satellite instrument launch could not have been better for global warming alarmists. The late 1970s marked the end of a 30-year cooling trend. As a result, the polar ice caps were quite likely more extensive than they had been since at least the 1920s. Nevertheless, this abnormally extensive 1979 polar ice extent would appear to be the “normal” baseline when comparing post-1979 polar ice extent.

Updated NASA satellite data show the polar ice caps remained at approximately their 1979 extent until the middle of the last decade. Beginning in 2005, however, polar ice modestly receded for several years. By 2012, polar sea ice had receded by approximately 10 percent from 1979 measurements. (Total polar ice area – factoring in both sea and land ice – had receded by much less than 10 percent, but alarmists focused on the sea ice loss as “proof” of a global warming crisis.)

A 10-percent decline in polar sea ice is not very remarkable, especially considering the 1979 baseline was abnormally high anyway. Regardless, global warming activists and a compliant news media frequently and vociferously claimed the modest polar ice cap retreat was a sign of impending catastrophe. Al Gore even predicted the Arctic ice cap could completely disappear by 2014.

In late 2012, however, polar ice dramatically rebounded and quickly surpassed the post-1979 average. Ever since, the polar ice caps have been at a greater average extent than the post-1979 mean.

Now, in May 2015, the updated NASA data show polar sea ice is approximately 5 percent above the post-1979 average.

During the modest decline in 2005 through 2012, the media presented a daily barrage of melting ice cap stories. Since the ice caps rebounded – and then some – how have the media reported the issue?

The frequency of polar ice cap stories may have abated, but the tone and content has not changed at all. Here are some of the titles of news items I pulled yesterday from the front two pages of a Google News search for “polar ice caps”:

“Climate change is melting more than just the polar ice caps”

“2020: Antarctic ice shelf could collapse”

“An Arctic ice cap’s shockingly rapid slide into the sea”

“New satellite maps show polar ice caps melting at ‘unprecedented rate’”

The only Google News items even hinting that the polar ice caps may not have melted so much (indeed not at all) came from overtly conservative websites. The “mainstream” media is alternating between maintaining radio silence on the extended run of above-average polar ice and falsely asserting the polar ice caps are receding at an alarming rate.

To be sure, receding polar ice caps are an expected result of the modest global warming we can expect in the years ahead. In and of themselves, receding polar ice caps have little if any negative impact on human health and welfare, and likely a positive benefit by opening up previously ice-entombed land to human, animal, and plant life. Nevertheless, polar ice cap extent will likely be a measuring stick for how much the planet is or is not warming.

The Earth has warmed modestly since the Little Ice Age ended a little over 100 years ago, and the Earth will likely continue to warm modestly as a result of natural and human factors. As a result, at some point in time, NASA satellite instruments should begin to report a modest retreat of polar ice caps. The modest retreat – like that which happened briefly from 2005 through 2012 – would not be proof or evidence of a global warming crisis. Such a retreat would merely illustrate that global temperatures are continuing their gradual recovery from the Little Ice Age. Such a recovery – despite alarmist claims to the contrary – would not be uniformly or even on balance detrimental to human health and welfare. Instead, an avalanche of scientific evidence indicates recently warming temperatures have significantly improved human health and welfare, just as warming temperatures have always done.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesta.../#171901f22892

So basically what the leftist have done is take a natural cycle and declared it a human caused emergency.

As for the last sentence in the article, it has been clearly demonstrated that every species of human evolved during warming periods. Almost every major civilization and empire came to be during warming periods as well. And during every single one of those events, the average global temps were higher than they are today.

what we need is more climate change articles by lawyers
 
spaminator
+1
#7
there was a show that mentioned that some people believe that the book of psalms represents each year and that the world would end in 2050.
 
petros
+2
#8
The Aztec Calendar says we are already dead but we just don't know it yet.
 
Jinentonix
+3
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

what we need is more climate change articles by lawyers

No, what we need are more economists/political scientists and part-time drama teachers with no actual science background dictating climate policy. That makes far more sense.
 
Danbones
+2
#10
Well, so far all the predictions of the end of the world have been wrong.
 
Cliffy
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Twin_Moose View Post

Why is Carbon blamed then Cliffy? Why wasn't it called clean up your damn garbage tax Cliffy?

Like I have said many times before, the whole carbon myth is a smoke screen to cover up the fact that we are poisoning the planet. The carbon tax is a bogus ploy to dodge the rel problem. I believe Big Oil perpetrated the carbon myth to keep people distracted.
 
Twin_Moose
+2
#12
So you believe the energy companies got together and agreed to share their money with third world countries along with the poor in our country? I don't think so Cliff!
 
petros
+1
#13
Quote: Originally Posted by Cliffy View Post

Like I have said many times before, the whole carbon myth is a smoke screen to cover up the fact that we are poisoning the planet. The carbon tax is a bogus ploy to dodge the rel problem. I believe Big Oil perpetrated the carbon myth to keep people distracted.

What and who is the "real problem"?
 
petros
+2
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by Twin_Moose View Post

So you believe the energy companies got together and agreed to share their money with third world countries along with the poor in our country? I don't think so Cliff!

The UN plan keeps the poor without energy to industrialize.

The UN hates nonwhites.
 
MHz
#15
Is 30 years enough time to create a civilization so we can crater it?? (if that widening crack in the crust on the near side of the moon doesn't end up getting us first. Free kilo of gold falling from the sky ar 20,000mph and all you have to do is dodge them and then find the many parts they break into on impact. You know, like the last time.