Why a no-deal Brexit is now overwhelmingly likely


Blackleaf
+1
#1
Here is why, if you can be bothered to read on...


Why a no-deal Brexit is now overwhelmingly likely


Robert Peston
6 August 2019
The Spectator



I am regularly asked whether MPs can block a no-deal Brexit, whether they will block a no-deal Brexit and whether there will be a referendum.

The short answers are:

1. MPs have the power to block a no-deal Brexit

2. The likelihood of them permanently and definitively blocking a no-deal Brexit is slim-to-none

3. There is likely to be a general election to decide whether the UK stays in or quits the EU, and the prospect of a referendum or People’s Vote is now vanishingly small.

Here is why, if you can be bothered to read on.

First of all, MPs have already demonstrated that they have the power to take control of the Commons order paper, and then legislate to mandate the PM to sue the EU for a further Brexit delay or to remove a no-deal Brexit as the legislated default position in the event that a negotiated Brexit cannot be achieved.

Second, they have the power to bring down the Government by a vote of no confidence, install a temporary government of national unity and then sue the EU to postpone the date we leave the EU.

So yes, MPs have the power to block a no-deal Brexit.

But the reason they won’t is that under the British Parliamentary system the opposition is (almost by definition) a disorganised rabble.

When I talk with those at the top of the opposition parties, I hear contradictory and confusing views, a cacophony of madness, on whether to try to legislate to force Johnson to take no deal off the table or to vote to replace him with a unifying, anti-no-deal PM.

Unless MPs can coalesce around a simple single strategy, Johnson and his most important aide Dominic Cummings win: the UK will be out, sans EU settlement, on October 31.

But Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems all have their own ideas about how to stymie Johnson. And they will not and probably cannot hunt in a pack.

In that context, the most important statement by John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, on my show on the day that Johnson was crowned as PM – which weirdly feels a lifetime away but is actually less than a fortnight ago – was that Labour had absolutely zero interest in participating in a government of national unity.

There were no ifs or buts. He was categoric.

Labour would form its own government under Jeremy Corbyn or Johnson would stay, he implied. And it is almost inconceivable that Corbyn can win enough backing from rebel Tories, as well as the other opposition parties, to command the confidence of the Commons.

There is only the remotest chance of Labour rallying round Ken Clarke or Jo Swinson as possible anti-no-deal PMs for however long or short would be needed to persuade the EU to provide a further extension of our membership of the EU.

And as for MPs seizing control of the order paper, if that prospect were to loom Johnson would call Labour’s bluff, say he wants a general election and dare Labour and other opposition parties to refuse his request – which I cannot conceive they would ever do.

Most paths seem to lead ineluctably to the people having the final say on whether the UK leaves the EU without a deal or whether it remains in the EU – but a final say through a general election rather than in a referendum.

And again, if you share my logic, Johnson probably wins – either because he succeeds in rigging the election timetable such that the new government cannot be formed till after the UK has left the EU on October 31, which is a prospect I regard as unlikely, or more likely because there is absolutely zero sign of Corbyn offering voters the necessary simple choice between a Tory party that would remove the UK from the EU, no ifs or buts, and a Labour party that would keep the UK in the EU.

Instead, according to senior Labour forces, Corbyn seems wedded to the latest iteration of its complicated policy, which is to promise a further Brexit referendum.

And if voters were presented with a clear Tory policy to take the UK out of the EU without a deal, but an opposition divided between Labour hinting there could be a form of Brexit it might support and that in any event there must be a referendum, while other opposition parties were saying they would prefer simply to stay in the EU, then left-of-centre voters would understandably be muddled and anxious about who to support.

And if left-of-centre voters are disunited and unsure whether to vote for Labour, or Lib Dem or Green or Plaid or SNP, Johnson scoops the prize.

By the way, Johnson and Cummings are acutely aware that a referendum is much more dangerous for them than a general election.

Because in a referendum, the Remain side would be united and coherent, whereas in a general election the anti-no-deal opposition would be engaged in internecine warfare that would consume them and turbocharge Johnson back into 10 Downing Street.

So I am not surprised that Johnson and his colleagues seem as confident as they do.

And I am mildly surprised that the People’s Vote campaign has not reinvented itself as an umbrella organisation to coordinate anti-no-deal voting in the seemingly imminent general election, rather than as cheerleader for a plebiscite that has vanished beyond the horizon.

Here is the fundamental reason why a no-deal Brexit is now overwhelmingly likely: senior officials in Brussels and in European capitals tell me that there is no basis for negotiating a new Brexit settlement with Johnson – which is almost a truism – and that broadly the choices are between a near facsimile of May’s settlement, remaining in the EU or a no-deal Brexit.

They then add, which they see as a total truism, that at this juncture only the Commons can block a no-deal Brexit by usurping Johnson.

Do they have faith MPs will block no deal?

‘The case is hopeless,’ said one – whose corollary, for better or worse, is that Boris Johnson’s no-ifs-or-buts, do-or-die Brexit may be a locomotive on which the brakes have been removed.

Robert Peston is ITV’s Political Editor. This article originally appeared on his ITV news blog.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...mingly-likely/
 
Walter
#2
Trump Offers Brexit Britain a 'Very Big' Trade Deal
https://www.newsmax.com/headline/tru.../25/id/929922/

Yep.
 
Blackleaf
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by Walter View Post

Trump Offers Brexit Britain a 'Very Big' Trade Deal
https://www.newsmax.com/headline/tru.../25/id/929922/
Yep.

I think you're misunderstanding what a No Deal Brexit actually is.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
#4
Brexit: Corbyn meets opposition MPs to discuss plan to stop no deal


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...p+news+stories
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
#5
So what he really wants is pedo nazicommieglobalism
 
Serryah
Free Thinker
#6
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49493632


Interesting.
 
Tecumsehsbones
+1
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by Serryah View Post

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49493632
Interesting.

So, in the most democratic country ever, the most democratic PM ever is going to ask the democratically inherited monarch to democratically shut down the democratic parliament. Cuz that's democracy.
 
Serryah
Free Thinker
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

So, in the most democratic country ever, the most democratic PM ever is going to ask the democratically inherited monarch to democratically shut down the democratic parliament. Cuz that's democracy.


Cause he wants to avoid the trouble of people against a no deal Brexit.


Yep.
 
Twin_Moose
Conservative
+1
#9
Queen approves Boris Johnson’s request to suspend Parliament ahead of Brexit deadline

Alotta bullets taken outta anti-Brexit gun
Last edited by Twin_Moose; 2 weeks ago at 12:53 PM..
 
coldstream
+3
#10  Top Rated Post
Good for Boris. Just push Brexit through. It won't be as catastrophic as the Remainers would have you believe. There's bound to be some dislocation and reorganization associated with it. Some short term pain for long term gain. The EU will fall apart anyway over the next 10 to 15 years. The UK is just taking its own destiny in its hands rather than further investing in a the bankrupt idea of a federated Europe.
Last edited by coldstream; 2 weeks ago at 01:07 PM..
 
Tecumsehsbones
#11
Funny how even the Brexiteer supporters aren't even pretending to believe BoreJo's lie about how this isn't about Brexit.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
+1
#12

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will suspend Parliament through mid-October, cutting down its time to prevent a no-deal Brexit


Johnson said he has asked the queen to hold her speech outlining the country��s legislative agenda in mid-October. The move would cut down the time opposition would have to draft laws to prevent a no-deal Brexit before the Oct. 31 deadline. Opposition parliamentarians have condemned the move.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ational&wpmk=1
 
Blackleaf
+3
#13
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

So, in the most democratic country ever, the most democratic PM ever is going to ask the democratically inherited monarch to democratically shut down the democratic parliament. Cuz that's democracy.

So shutting down Parliament in order to honour the democratic will of the people and stop anti-democratic Remainers from overturning it is bad, is it?

The f&cking hypocrisy of the Remainers is breathtaking here. They've spent months using all sorts of devious and undemocratic tricks to try and overturn a democratic decision and now here they are getting in a rage because Johnson is proroguing Parliament in order to deliver Brexit.

What's worse: using dirty tricks to overturn democracy or using dirty tricks to honour it?
 
Blackleaf
+3
#14
Here's something the hysterical Remainers won't tell you (because they are the baddies), but I have the decency to:

It’s entirely normal for a new British government to schedule a Queen’s speech on taking power, and will usually suspend parliament beforehand (though not normally for this length of time). Boris Johnson’s decision will also bring an end to one of the longest parliamentary sessions in history, and will not close parliament during the actual Brexit date, as many anti no-dealers initially feared.
Last edited by Blackleaf; 2 weeks ago at 05:58 PM..
 
Blackleaf
+3
#15
The most dishonest demo I’ve ever seen

The #StopTheCoup gathering was a protest against democracy, not for it.


Brendan O'Neill
EDITOR
28th August 2019
Spiked



I’ve been on many protests in my time. Some stirring, some damp. But I’ve never been on one as dishonest, even despicable, as the ‘Stop the Coup’ gathering in Westminster this evening. This is the first demo I’ve ever seen that is the polar opposite of what it purports to be. It was dolled up in the noble garb of defending democracy but its chief cry was for the crushing of democracy. Under the banner of preventing Boris Johnson from launching a ‘coup’ against parliament, the protesters were calling for the continuation of the reactionary chattering-class coup against Brexit and the 17.4million people who voted for it. That is, against democracy.

It was clear from the outset that this was no neutral get-together, concerned simply with the future of parliamentary democracy in the UK. It was awash with EU flags. Virtually everyone I saw was wearing a ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ sticker. Dogs – why do middle-class people bring their dogs everywhere? – were adorned in the blue and gold of the Brussels oligarchy. ‘Stop Brexit’, placard after placard read. There were people in EU t-shirts, EU flag-cum-capes, EU berets.

This was not a pro-democracy or pro-parliament protest. It was a pro-Brussels gathering; a creepy outpouring of love for European bureaucracy; yet another public statement by the metropolitan elite of its fealty to foreign technocracy over national democracy. To the extent that these people were saying ‘Bollocks to Boris’, as some placards did (though far fewer, strikingly, than said ‘Bollocks to Brexit), it isn’t because he is proroguing parliament – it’s because he backs Brexit. It’s because he thinks the 2016 vote should be acted upon. Such was the transparent cynicism of this protest: it pretended to rage against Boris because he is anti-democratic, but, in truth, these people are furious with Boris because he is pro-democratic, pro pushing through the largest democratic act in UK history. ‘Don’t destroy democracy!’, they cried at Boris, but their real demand was: ‘Don’t respect the democratic will.’


This cognitive dissonance – to be briefly generous – was summed up in the placards being carried by numerous people. The text said: ‘Defend democracy… Stop Brexit.’ And there you have it: defend democracy by crushing a massive democratic vote; defend democracy by overriding the wishes of the demos; defend democracy by killing it. This is an Orwellian-level misuse of language, where ‘democracy’ is invoked by protesters to the cynical end of stopping democracy in this country. They don’t want to stop the coup, as they refer to Boris’s suspension of parliament; they want to intensify the liberal elite’s coup against the millions of ordinary people who voted to leave the European Union.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/0...ive-ever-seen/
 
Blackleaf
+2
#16
Who will defend democracy?

Boris’s prorogation is wrong. His critics are even worse.

Tom Slater
DEPUTY EDITOR
28th August 2019
Spiked



Two things can be true at once, and today was a case in point.

First, Boris Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament is cynical and wrong. Having been granted the queen’s approval, he will now end the current session around 10 September, clearing the way for a Queen’s Speech on 14 October.

The obvious intention here is to squeeze parliamentary time as the Brexit deadline looms, to the end of stopping Remainer MPs either legislating against No Deal or toppling Johnson via a vote of no confidence.

Granted, this has only knocked a few days off parliamentary time. MPs will still be sitting in the run-up to Brexit day; this is not ‘locking the doors of parliament’ to ‘force through No Deal’, as it has been talked up.

But these are times of huge political and historical consequence – parliament, notwithstanding some of the shameless anti-democrats who currently occupy it, should not be sidelined. We risk setting a dangerous precedent.

But while Johnson is plain wrong, another thing is true here too: his Remainer opponents, those who have spent the day calling him a ‘tin-pot dictator’ and threatening civil disobedience, do not have right on their side either. In fact, they are far, far worse.

The very people who have spent the past three years doing everything they can to thwart democracy are now trying to pose as warriors for democracy – without a glint of shame or self-awareness.

Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson says that Johnson is ‘remov[ing] the voice of the people’ – this from the woman who recently admitted that, if there was a second EU referendum in which Leave won again, she still wouldn’t accept the result.

Earlier today, alleged republican Jeremy Corbyn demanded an emergency audience with the Queen, to try to convince her to reject Johnson’s request. So much does he value democracy he was hoping the monarch would intervene in his favour.

Next thing you know he’ll be calling on the generals to do their patriotic duty.

The response from faux-left Remainers has perhaps been the most infuriating – and certainly the most delusional. Corbynistas are protesting in Westminster tonight. Some have even called for a general strike, to the end of crushing the votes of millions of workers.

Today activists invoked the Peterloo massacre, and the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, as they called people out on to the streets. Clearly, they don’t realise that in this particular battle for democracy they’re on the side of the other guys. The ones with sabres and tear gas.

The PM’s critics claim to be sticking up for parliamentary democracy. But they don’t really mean it. Most of them didn’t bat an eyelid as our parliamentary democracy was diluted by dint of our membership of the European Union. And they are now fighting tooth and nail to keep us in that anti-democratic racket.

These fulminating Remainers are not asserting MPs’ right to challenge the executive. They are asserting MPs’ right to thwart what the people voted for at the EU referendum – despite nearly all of them voting to hold that referendum in the first place.

As we saw in the opposition-party discussions this week, they only want to keep parliament open so that they can either force Brexit to be delayed again, bring down the government, or ideally both – paving the way for a coalition bound together by its determination to stop Brexit.

This lot are the world’s least convincing democrats. Which makes it all the more depressing that Johnson decided to prorogue parliament today. He has handed them a lifeline, allowing them to pose as plucky rebels rather than the Victorian-style elitists that they are.

More importantly, there is no reason to believe that this prorogation will pan out well for Brexit; and those Brexiteers celebrating today risk a rude awakening tomorrow.

In a letter to MPs earlier, Johnson made clear he intends to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU, secure concessions at the European Council on 17 October, then put it to a vote in the Commons, just days before the Brexit deadline.

And what might that deal look like? A hell of a lot like the one we have now. Yesterday, No10 confirmed that the only changes it is seeking to Theresa May’s Brexit deal relate to the Northern Ireland backstop. And as spiked has long argued, that is only the start of what is wrong with May’s deal.

So, perhaps this isn’t about No Deal at all. The squeezed timeline may end up being about bouncing MPs into backing a rehashed agreement, Johnson succeeding where May could not. Or perhaps, as one reporter suggested, this is all about provoking a no-confidence vote, sparking a General Election, and passing a deal at a later date on the strength of an enlarged Tory majority.

No one knows for sure what will happen, or what the real game plan is. But those cheering Johnson’s undemocratic moves today risk losing their right to complain about them tomorrow – and ceding the democratic high ground to those who really, really don’t deserve to occupy it.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/0...end-democracy/
 
Tecumsehsbones
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

So shutting down Parliament in order to honour the democratic will of the people and stop anti-democratic Remainers from overturning it is bad, is it?

Not at all, it's just following in the footsteps of that nice Mr. Hitler, who upheld the will of the German people without such little niceties as a parliament.
 
Blackleaf
+2
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

Not at all, it's just following in the footsteps of that nice Mr. Hitler,

Oh yeah, definitely.

I may add, however, that anyone who wears Hugo Boss clothing; or who is a painter; or who has a moustache; or who is Austrian; or who speaks German; or who is a Laurel and Hardy fan is also following in the footsteps of Mr Hitler.

Big f@cking deal.
 
Blackleaf
+1
#19
Mr Johnson has written two or three books. And so did Mr Hitler.

Oh, and they were both men.

Mr Johnson has two eyes. So did Mr Hitler.

So I suppose Mr Johnson IS a Nazi.

There's one difference between the two men, though: Johnson's got twice as many balls.

Oh, and Mr Johnson hasn't come to power using dubious illegal methods, hasn't tried to destroy an entire race and hasn't started a world war.

Despite all that, I thank you for the valuable contribution to this thread. I can tell what a mighty intellect you have by your intelligent reply. Long may it continue.
Last edited by Blackleaf; 2 weeks ago at 07:29 PM..
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

Mr Johnson has written two or three books. And so did Mr Hitler.

Oh, and they were both men.

Mr Johnson has two eyes. So did Mr Hitler.

So I suppose Mr Johnson IS a Nazi.

There's one difference between the two men, though: Johnson's got twice as many balls.

Oh, and Mr Johnson hasn't come to power using dubious illegal methods, hasn't tried to destroy an entire race and hasn't started a world war.

Despite all that, I thank you for the valuable contribution to this thread. I can tell what a mighty intellect you have by your intelligent reply. Long may it continue.

are you having a bad day???
 
Tecumsehsbones
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

Oh, and Mr Johnson hasn't come to power using dubious illegal methods, hasn't tried to destroy an entire race and hasn't started a world war.

Give him time, he's only been PM for a couple of weeks. And given the British record for genocide and starting world wars, I'm sure he'll get to it directly.
 
Curious Cdn
Conservative
#22
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

Give him time, he's only been PM for a couple of weeks. And given the British record for genocide and starting world wars, I'm sure he'll get to it directly.

In their heart of hearts, the Brits believe that Brexit will cut the Europeans off from civilization and humiliate them, or worse.
 
Ocean Breeze
Free Thinker
#23
What Boris Johnson's suspension of Parliament means for Brexit

https://www.axios.com/brexit-parliam...ca3a96355.html
 
Serryah
Free Thinker
#24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjghJ6Dy6Do


Side note, I love how he explains things.
 
Curious Cdn
Conservative
+1
#25
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

So shutting down Parliament in order to honour the democratic will of the people and stop anti-democratic Remainers from overturning it is bad, is it?
The f&cking hypocrisy of the Remainers is breathtaking here. They've spent months using all sorts of devious and undemocratic tricks to try and overturn a democratic decision and now here they are getting in a rage because Johnson is proroguing Parliament in order to deliver Brexit.
What's worse: using dirty tricks to overturn democracy or using dirty tricks to honour it?

A Prime Minister who has only become Prime Minister because a handful of people in his own party chose him and who has no mandate from the British voters, has just told the dynastic monarch to shut down the one democratic body that is answerable to the British voters, lest there be any objections to his dictates.

No democracy to be found there.
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
#26
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

Not at all, it's just following in the footsteps of that nice Mr. Hitler, who upheld the will of the German people without such little niceties as a parliament.

Yes, that's why we call him Hitlary.
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
+1
#27
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

A Prime Minister who has only become Prime Minister because a handful of people in his own party chose him and who has no mandate from the British voters, has just told the dynastic monarch to shut down the one democratic body that is answerable to the British voters, lest there be any objections to his dictates.
No democracy to be found there.

lol, get your head out of that liberal a$$ doood!

Look reality in the eye instead.
 
Curious Cdn
Conservative
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by Danbones View Post

lol, get your head out of that liberal a$$ doood!

Look reality in the eye instead.

The reality is that you're clearly sick but have not gone for help, yet.
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
#29
Yes that's why trump is in prison for russian collusion, after not being elected, then being impeached years ago so hitlary could take over, and that's also why epstien is still a weener Mr Buck.

Um...

Better get YOUR head checked ( at least for its location ) there Mr NEVER RIGHT.That cowboi belt is NOT a hat band.
 
MHz
#30
I wonder who it was that told the UK Government to not do anything for the next 4 years, the Queen or the EU Bankers?