Poll: Conservatives build on lead across Canada
CTV.ca News Staff
New poll numbers show the Conservatives possibly passing the Liberals in Quebec and the dominant Bloc Quebecois falling below 50 per cent support for the first time in this campaign.
The survey, conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail between Jan. 7 and 9, shows support for the Conservatives continuing to climb in the province.
When asked how Canadians would vote if an election were held today, here's how Quebecers responded (percentage point change from a Jan. 5-8 poll in brackets):
Bloc Quebecois: 48 per cent (-4)
Conservatives: 22 per cent (+3)
Liberals: 19 per cent (-2)
NDP: 7 per cent (+1)
Greens: 4 per cent (+2)
The margin of error is 5.1 per cent for the Quebec sample.
"Our analysis shows the Bloc vote is declining, and you could see that in Monday night's debate performance," Tim Woolstencroft of The Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca. "Gilles Duceppe (the Bloc's leader) wasn't exclusively focused on (Prime Minister Paul) Martin; he was starting to take aim at Stephen Harper to stop the growth in Tory momentum."
In addition, the Conservatives have a huge advantage in momentum, even over the Bloc (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 54 (+43)
Bloc Quebecois: 22 (-15)
Liberals: 10 (-19)
NDP: 4 (-3)
Greens: 1 (unchanged)
Other: 0 (-1)
None: 3 (-4)
DK/NA/Ref. 6 (-1)
On CTV Newsnet's Mike Duffy Live, former Parti Quebecois cabinet minister Joseph Facal said Tuesday: "I don't think he (Harper) has the ground strength to fully capitalize on his momentum."
The Conservative growth is mainly coming outside Montreal at the expense of the Liberals.
In Montreal, the Liberals have held steady in the 27 to 29 per cent range over the course of the campaign, while the Conservatives have increased their support to 11 per cent.
However, in the rest of Quebec, the Liberals have fallen to 13 per cent, while the Conservatives have jumped to 25 per cent.
Meanwhile, in Ontario, which has 106 of 308 seats in Parliament, the Tories could be poised to end the 12-year run of Liberal dominance(percentage point change from a Jan. 5-8 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 40 per cent (-1)
Liberals: 38 per cent (+2)
NDP: 15 per cent (+1)
Greens: 7 (+2)
Regionally, the Liberals hold a 47-34 lead over the Tories in the Greater Toronto Area. However, outside the GTA, the Tories hold a 41-45 lead, and a 38-35 lead in southwest Ontario.
Atlantic Canada is another region where the Liberals have been strong in recent elections, yet the Conservatives appear to be in a statistical tie with them (percentage point change from a Dec. 12-21 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 40 per cent (+11)
Liberals: 37 per cent (-16)
NDP: 20 per cent (-3)
Greens: 3 per cent (-2)
In B.C., with 36 seats in play, the Conservatives and NDP have made gains at the expense of the Liberals and Greens (percentage point change from a Jan. 5-8 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 43 per cent (+6)
NDP: 27 per cent (+1)
Liberals: 24 per cent (-4)
Greens: 6 per cent (-3)
The survey also shows that the Conservatives are maintaining their lead ahead of the Liberals on the national front (percentage point change from a Jan. 5-8 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 38 per cent (+1)
Liberals: 28 per cent (-1)
NDP: 16 per cent (+1)
Bloc Quebecois: 12 per cent (-1)
Green Party: 6 per cent (unchanged)
If one looks at the numbers just for the rest of Canada, the Tories hold a 44-31 lead over the Liberals. The NDP have 18 per cent and the Greens just seven per cent.
When asked which party has the most momentum going towards the Jan. 23 federal election, the results showed the Tories continuing to surge (percentage point change from a Jan. 5-8 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 58 per cent (+5)
Liberals: 14 per cent (unchanged)
NDP: 5 per cent (-1)
Bloc Quebecois: 5 per cent (-1)
Greens: 2 per cent (+1)
Woolstencroft said Strategic Counsel wanted to see the impact of the new Liberal attack ads before making any predictions, with these Tory momentum numbers, "clearly they are heading towards a majority government."
Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.
Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three-day period. Interviews were conducted between Jan. 7 and 9 (except for Atlantic Canada).
The sample size and margin of error (with the margin of error in brackets) for each region are as follows:
Canada: 1,500 (2.5)
Quebec: 370 (5.1)
Rest of Canada: 1,129 (2.9)
Ontario: 568 (4.1)
Prairies: 246 (6.3)
B.C.: 200 (7.0)
West: 446 (4.6)
Atlantic (Jan. 4-9): 192 (7.1)
Here are the questions asked:
Q. From what you can tell, which party, if any, is gaining the most popularity and momentum leading up to the election. Is it the ...?
Q. If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?