Polls

Reverend Blair
#1
I love polls.

Here's the latest from Environics.



Lib Cons NDP Bloc Green

Environics
15/04/2005
27 33 24 11 2
 
Jay
#2
There are so many swing votes in Canada.


Is anyone worried about the left vote being split?
 
Reverend Blair
#3
The Greens have dropped off the map in most of the polls, Jay. They've lost the left, for the most part.

The best analysis of how this poll translates; and it's only a single poll and an election hasn't been called, so don't anybody get too excited; is this from Wilfred Day at Babble:

Quote:

With the aid of the UBC Forecaster, this poll results in:

Atlantic:
Liberal 19
Conservative 8
NDP 5 (pick up Dartmouth--Cole Harbour and Random--Burin--St. George's)

Quebec:
Bloc 69
Conservative 5 (Pontiac, Mount Royal, Lac-Saint-Louis, Pierrefonds--Dollard, Westmount--Ville-Marie)
Liberal 1 (Saint-Laurent--Cartierville)
(NDP 2nd in Outremont, Westmount--Ville-Marie, Hull--Aylmer, Papineau, Laurier, Manicouagan and Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie)

Ontario:
Liberal 50
Conservative 38 (including Brant in a close 3-way race)
NDP 18 (pick up Trinity--Spadina, Parkdale--High Park, Hamilton East--Stoney Creek, Nickel Belt, Hamilton Mountain, Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing, Kenora, Oshawa, London--Fanshawe, Thunder Bay--Rainy River, Welland. Miss Thunder Bay--Superior North by only 0.1%, and miss both Sudbury and Beaches--East York by only 0.8%)

Prairies:
Conservatives 45
NDP 10 (pick up Saskatoon--Humboldt, Palliser, Regina--Qu'Appelle, Regina--Lumsden--Lake Centre, Winnipeg South Centre, and Saint Boniface)
Liberal 1 (Wascana)

BC:
Conservative 19
NDP 14 (pick up Vancouver Kingsway, Surrey North, Vancouver Centre, Southern Interior, Victoria, Vancouver Island North, Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca, New Westminster--Coquitlam, and Newton--North Delta)
Liberal 3

North:
NDP 2 (Yukon and Western Arctic)
Liberal 1 (Nunavut)

Total:
Conservatives 115
Liberals 75
Bloc 69
NDP 49

Neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals have any real representation from francophone Quebec. Neither is in any position to stop a sovereignist victory in the referendum which will swiftly follow the next provincial election.

What this poll really points to, if further polls back it up, is far more Liberal voters considering the NDP than any other party. If it holds, it will signify a major breakthrough for the NDP. That's not the usual swing vote.
 
passpatoo
#4
[quote="Reverend Blair"]The Greens have dropped off the map in most of the polls, Jay. They've lost the left, for the most part.

quote]

Not so according to Ekos Rev. Via the Green's federal site, Toronto Star reports them sitting about 5% in the polls. If I recall correctly, that's where they finished off last election. Also, I think it was the senior political correspondent from the National (I don't recall his ame at the moment), said a few nights ago that both the NDP and the Greens are picking up the lost support from the Libs.

I still don't think that this is going to translate into any seats any time soon except maybe a token one out in BC, but I don't think that they are losing any ground.
 
Reverend Blair
#5
The Greens are picking up votes from the moderate and right of the Liberal Party though, passpatoo...at least that's the consensus of many on the left. The Greens have a very corporate lean right now, which has caused a lot of their support to go to the NDP. That support has been replenished from enivironmentalists on the right. That's a much softer demographic for them.

More than that though...I was referring mostly to the Environics poll (crappy wording on my part, sorry) that shows them at 2. Ipsos- Reid had them at 7 on April 12.

Again though, that's soft support. Something that happens with non-traditional parties is that people who don't really want to answer polls shout out "Green" in an attempt to monkey-wrench things. In a close race, they are also more susceptible to strategic voting...people who would vote for the Greens but are too terrified of the Conservatives.
 
Jo Canadian
#6
 
no1important
#7
The green has some support out here. No suprise there. They do a lot better provincially though.

I live in Surrey Newton North Delta riding and Gurmant Grewal only beat liberal by 200 votes and the NDP candiadate was just behind him, this was tradionally an NDP area (provincially as well) before Reform/Alliance and I honestly see it going back to NDP. I also think Conservatives will lose seats in BC to NDP. The libs may lose a seat or two here but will still be strong. They will get a lot more than 3 seats in BC.

BC is always funny, Liberals always look low but when it comes time to vote, Anderson and the rest always manage to get back in, even if its just by a hair. Dosanjh, Chan, Owen will get back in even Hedy Fry will win. Hell North Van always went Neo-con but went Liberal last time.

But the Conservatives and NDP did split the vote in recent elections which could be argued helped Liberals. A lot of Lower Mainland and Island ridings are usually a pretty tight 3 way race anyways. So the vote could be swayed to any party easily.

Like I have said before the Gomery is blown over here and a non issue for a majority out here. I think people would vote NDP instead of Conservaqtive here if they really wanted to punish federal Liberals, as most people realize Martin was not the big player in the sponsorship scandal it was Chretien.
 
Aizlynne
#8
I wish they had a "You All Suck" option on these ballets. I wonder what the percentage would be then.
 
passpatoo
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by Reverend Blair

The Greens are picking up votes from the moderate and right of the Liberal Party though, passpatoo...at least that's the consensus of many on the left. The Greens have a very corporate lean right now, which has caused a lot of their support to go to the NDP. That support has been replenished from enivironmentalists on the right. That's a much softer demographic for them.

More than that though...I was referring mostly to the Environics poll (crappy wording on my part, sorry) that shows them at 2. Ipsos- Reid had them at 7 on April 12.

Again though, that's soft support. Something that happens with non-traditional parties is that people who don't really want to answer polls shout out "Green" in an attempt to monkey-wrench things. In a close race, they are also more susceptible to strategic voting...people who would vote for the Greens but are too terrified of the Conservatives.

I agree with all that you say here Rev. although I don't know where all this talk about the Greens and corporate support are comming from. I guess I'll have to take some more time going over thier platform again.

One thing the polls have been pretty consistent in is Canadians don't think an election should be called until after Gomery. I understand that the wording with each of the polls have been a little different but I think that this point is nevertheless clear. And despite this, tonight the National reported both Harper and Martin doing some pre-election campaigning. I don't think anyone, including these guys, are expecting anything other than another minority government should we go to the polls. While I rather like this minority thing, I think that its the closest that we're going to get to democracy in the current system, I still don't see much if any benefit to whichever party forms the next government. There's still going to be lots of give and take has we have seen with this one, and if Harper and his lads do take this gov. down, I can really forsee them being punished for it.
 
Reverend Blair
#10
Quote:

although I don't know where all this talk about the Greens and corporate support are comming from. I guess I'll have to take some more time going over thier platform again.

The leader of the Greens is an ex-PC. He's taken things to the right, which has alienated some people from the left. It's drawn in people from the right though.

Quote:

One thing the polls have been pretty consistent in is Canadians don't think an election should be called until after Gomery. I understand that the wording with each of the polls have been a little different but I think that this point is nevertheless clear. And despite this, tonight the National reported both Harper and Martin doing some pre-election campaigning.

Oh yeah. I haven't seen things this ugly for a while. If you were to get Martin and Harper away from their handlers right now, it would take less than ten minutes to goad them into naked coleslaw cage match wrestling. There is real animosity between them...unusual at that level of politics.

Quote:

I don't think anyone, including these guys, are expecting anything other than another minority government should we go to the polls. While I rather like this minority thing, I think that its the closest that we're going to get to democracy in the current system, I still don't see much if any benefit to whichever party forms the next government. There's still going to be lots of give and take has we have seen with this one, and if Harper and his lads do take this gov. down, I can really forsee them being punished for it.

If we get a majority either way, I'd be amazed. I'm still betting on the Liberals to pull out another minority right now...they have the better machine by far and they haven't started spinning for real yet. So far they've been toying, and they've done okay. When the pressure is on they'll go hard. They really want to do that after the testimony at Gomery ends, not before. Unless they're pressed, of course.

If we get a Conservative majority while Harper is in charge, start sending out feelers to New Zealand and Sweden, cause this place will get as ugly as Jesusland. If we get a Liberal majority with Martin or any of his boys in charge, it will only be as ugly as Nixon's Amerika.

Christ, what a range of options. No matter what, I'm preparing the effigies and fueling my zippo.
 
mrmom2
#11
Quote:

If you were to get Martin and Harper away from their handlers right now, it would take less than ten minutes to goad them into naked coleslaw cage match wrestling.

Now thats an ugly picture and I used to like coleslaw
 
Reverend Blair
#12
Lib
Cons NDP Bloc Green

Compas
16/04/2005
30 34 18 15
 
no1important
#13
They have Daryl Bricker CEO and President of Ipso reid on the radio,and he says 9% of people believe politicians.

While 20% believe in the Loch Ness Monster and another 20% believe we are visited regulariley by "aliens".

70% disapprove of Genetically Modified food.

33% approve of same sex marriage, about 33% totally disapprove of it and about another third favour civil unions.

That most people would prefer a Republic over a Monarchy(but no one is in a rush to do anything about it, and they are viewed as celebrities) and that many people like and respect Queen Elizabeth but most want William King and not Charles, when she dies.

He also mentioned there are more educated people today than ever before.......................................

I know this may be a little off topic but I thought some of the numbers were interesting.
 
Reverend Blair
#14
It's always interesting when they interview the people who do the polls, No1. The things that the press doesn't talk about show up...like the trending to the left in Canada on social issues and policies.

I'm kind of scared by those Loch Ness and alien numbers though.
 
Reverend Blair
#15
I forgot to put in a link to the Compas poll. This one leads to Politics Canada.

There is also the analysis of that poll.
 
Reverend Blair
#16
Decima Research
21/04/2005


LibCons NDP Bloc Green

28 35 18
 
peapod
#17
Another fun thing to do with polls is when they call you, tell them exactly the opposite of what you believe.
 
mrmom2
#18
I do manypolls Just to skew the results
 
dukee
#19
Conservatives 36% --- up 6
Liberals 26% --- stalled
NDP 15% --- down 4

Ipsos Reid

Conservatives are at 16% in Quebec.
 
Reverend Blair
#20
That's an old poll, Dukee...April 15.

Wait until next week when we know what the fall-out of tonight is.
 
dukee
#21
Just thought I'd keep it in the one-stop-shop for polls thread.
 
Reverend Blair
#22
Dates are important though. Actually they aren't any more. These are all defunct after tonight.
 
dukee
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by Reverend Blair

Dates are important though. Actually they aren't any more. These are all defunct after tonight.

I don't think this will change much. The speech was largely forgetable (other then letting the less politcally astute members of the country know that the sponsorship scandal has grown to the point of having the Prime Minister apologize on national television).

If anything, Martin may get a temporary blip for his "my papa raised me in the hallway of the Parliament Building" story. But, then some new revelation of Liberals dumping bodies in the harbour, or the like, will cause everyone to forget about it.

Mr. Harper, and Mr. Layton for that matter, could also stand to benefit for both pointing out that a national address is not the forum to air Liberal Party problems.
 
Reverend Blair
#24
I think Layton will benefit. He came off in a win/win situation...either he gets the budget he wants, bringing in Ontario votes; or he's the one who tried, bringing in Ontario votes.

I'm not sure Harper will. Everybody who I've spoken too that was even slightly ambivalent towards him thought he came off as arrogant and played to his core audience instead of the people he needs to switch over. He can convert everybody in Alberta and he'll still lose.

Let's wait and see what the polls say though. Most Canadians don't follow politics. Most Canadians haven't been following this whole thing. Most Canadians have an innate understanding that our political system is corrupt.
 
no1important
#25
I am looking forward to and I am quite curious to see if and how the next round of polls were affected or not by Martins speech last night.

I have a sneaky feeling the conservatives may go down a couple of points.
 
Numure
#26
Quote: Originally Posted by dukee

Conservatives 36% --- up 6
Liberals 26% --- stalled
NDP 15% --- down 4

Ipsos Reid

Conservatives are at 16% in Quebec.

WEhy wasnt the bloc in this poll?
 
no1important
#27
Quote: Originally Posted by Numure

Quote: Originally Posted by dukee

Conservatives 36% --- up 6
Liberals 26% --- stalled
NDP 15% --- down 4

Ipsos Reid

Conservatives are at 16% in Quebec.

WEhy wasnt the bloc in this poll?

E mail them and ask them. The email is---> inquiry@ipsos-na.com
 
Reverend Blair
#28
Usually that happens when they either don't poll in Quebec or don't give the party for a choice. In this case they likely didn't bother polling in Quebec.
 
no1important
#29
Liberals and NDP went up 3 points after the speech and Cons only went down 1 point. I just heard this on the radio. I will see if I can find a link with more detailed info.
 
Reverend Blair
#30
LATEST NATIONAL POLL
Pollara
22/04/2005

Lib Cons NDP Bloc Green
31 35 18 12
 

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