ABEXIT - is it time for Alberta to think about leaving Canada?


B00Mer
+2
#1561
Quote: Originally Posted by captain morgan View Post

Well said, right up to the point of joining the US.
Why on Earth would you want to swap Fed gvts that will clean your clock on taxes and I'm wondering exactly what the US Fed brings to the table in terms of benefits
That said, AB and Sask do need to consider alternative arrangements and considering the problems that Eastern Canada is facing in the next few years, this is even more reason to pull the plug

Well you hear all these idiots talk about separation.. going it alone. Basically a land locked country. We would still be in the same situation we are now, no pipelines, selling cheap oil to the USA.

Joining the USA is the best option for Alberta.

--------------------------------------------------------------

By Peter Zeihan and Michael N. Nayebi-Oskoui

Local politics, even at the national level, are rarely a focus for students of geopolitics. Personalities play too big a role in the mishmash while local outcomes often play too small a role globally. Local affairs take up an outsized amount of oxygen in terms of local media coverage and public opinion, yet things usually keep chugging along, be the results good, bad or indifferent.

The key word there being “usually”.

The Canadian province of Alberta held elections yesterday (April 16) that have been on our radar for three years, and the implications of their results are anything but usual.

Alberta is a quirky place. Strong economic growth, a robust energy sector, and center-right political leanings have defined Albertan politics in recent decades—trends broadly disconnected from the reputation and reality of the rest of America’s northern neighbor.

Within that disconnect lies the problem.

Alberta has long been the Canadian province suffering from the largest “gap” between the monies it pays into national coffers compared to what it gets back in terms of federal spending. The rest of Canada has shown its appreciation by consistently stymying the energy industry that forms the backbone of the Albertan economy with everything from carbon taxes to blocking transport routes for the landlocked province’s crude to reach foreign refineries. For the most part, the rest of Canada doesn’t even use Alberta’s crude themselves, deigning to invest in refineries capable of processing Alberta’s tar sands crude, opting instead for lighter, sweeter imports.

If you think hamstringing a region’s economic growth while depending on its tax payments is a less-than-tenable long-term strategy, you’re not alone. While more people are aware of Quebec’s…independent streak, plenty within the Albertan political mainstream have had enough. And thanks to Quebec’s long-standing political wrangling to wrench itself free, any future Albertan separatist referendum would be perfectly legal.

Which gets us to the current state of play. The province’s conservative-leaning voters staunchly backed the Progressive Conservative majority governments from 1971 to 2014, to the degree that after some elections there wasn’t even an opposition in the local legislature. But in 2015 in-fighting within the conservative house generated a political split. The Wildrose Party ran separate from the Progressive-Conservatives in the 2015 elections on a ticket of fiscal conservatism, healthcare reform and direct election of the province’s senators. The fissure split the conservative vote down the middle, enabling the New Democratic Party—a party that is most definitely not of the center-right—to seize control of the Albertan government for the first time.

In a near textbook example of how geopolitics forms politics rather than the other way around, the NDP and premier Rachel Notley quickly went to work not only adopting many of its predecessor conservative government’s policies, but went to the mats with both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and neighboring British Columbia over all things energy-related, most notably on pipelines. (Obviously, going to the mats here is relative. For a self-styled, Green/Leftist party to support oil sands in any measure is a big shift. Notley went so far as to embargo British Columbian products.)

It was fun while it lasted. Just as a political spat among the center-right brought the NDP to power, a recent fracturing of the center-left in Alberta combined with a healing of the rift on the right has now escorted it out. While the counting continues, it appears a reunited Conservative-Wildrose alliance—operating under the banner of United Conservatives—now hold at least 62 seats in the 87 seat parliament according to Tuesday night’s provisional results. With victory cemented, many Albertans now look forward to a fundamental shift in the provinces’ fortunes.

The awakening will be a rude one.

The United Conservatives are running on public dissatisfaction against carbon taxes, a lack of pipelines, and an unequal system of taxation by a federal government many Albertans see as being not only out of touch and unhelpful but actively working against Albertan interests.

Alberta’s new government will take the issue of a carbon tax to court.

They will lose. Canada’s provinces lack the legal standing to challenge the central government on such topics, or more accurately, Ottawa has means of enforcement that bypass legal challenges.

Alberta’s new government will sue to allow the Trans Mountain Pipeline to cross British Columbia and so enable Albertan Tar Sands to reach the Pacific.

They will lose. Even if Alberta wins the case, BC will still find a means—with the unofficial blessing of a green-leaning central government—of preventing the pipe’s construction.

Alberta’s new government will push back against the federal government’s heavy reach into Albertan coffers.

They will lose. With Canada’s population aging into mass retirement, transfers from Alberta to the center will increase.

Alberta’s new government will attempt to redefine the relationship between Edmonton and Ottawa in an effort to carve out more policy and financial autonomy.

They will lose. Trudeau’s shiny, Instagram-able veneer aside, his ruling Liberal Party faces what is shaping up to be horrific national election in October. Collapsed positions vis-à-vis the Americans on trade has gutted Liberal support in Quebec, British Colombia has outflanked Trudeau to the left, Alberta’s Prairie Province neighbors have never been strong Liberal territory, and Ontario is slipping into a decidedly non-leftist populism. Trudeau needs Alberta’s tax dollars to hold Canada together, and any concessions to Alberta would immediately be demanded by other provinces. What Alberta is asking for is quite literally an end of Canada. Even if Trudeau wanted to give ground (and he does not), he absolutely cannot.

Something’s gotta give.

This Alberta Question has two possible outcomes.

The first is an Albertan collapse.

Economically, the province’s strength is resource extraction. Without a significant change in how Canada functions, the Albertans inability to bring their crude to market leaves them staring down an economic depression Greek in depth while also facing ever higher financial extractions from Ottawa. It is enough to hollow out Calgary on the scale of Detroit. As a government town, Edmonton wouldn’t do much better.

Politically, Alberta’s United Conservatives face an impending litany of defeats on absolutely every issue that they say matter to them. Barring impossible shifts in Ottawa’s position, a repeat of the sort of infighting which brought the NDP to power in 2015 is all but guaranteed.

All that needs to occur to guarantee the rudderless and hopeless outcomes of this option is that the Albertans continue to do what they’ve done for the past decade: hope things get better and hope what they say matters.

Outcome Two requires a sharp break with convention, as it is nothing less than Albertan secession.

The logic of Alberta leaving Canada is difficult to deny. If the rest of Canada remains hellbent on cramping the Albertans’ style, why not quit the Canada Show? Alberta isn’t dependent on the federal government’s financial handouts like other provinces. It has an energy sector, public infrastructure, educational system and workforce that has drawn plenty of international investment interest on its own. Negotiating export pipelines directly with the United States would be infinitely easier than with other Canadian governments, especially since the U.S. Gulf Coast is home to the onlyconcentration of refineries in the world that can process Albertan heavy crudes. The money the Albertan government would save by not having to underwrite the rest of Canada would be gob-smacking.

But just because secession solves a bunch of problems doesn’t mean the Albertans are chomping at the bit to make it happen. No one in the Albertan public space is using the “S” word just yet. None of the major parties campaigned on separation, either in 2015 or 2019, but that doesn’t mean that the topic isn’t about to dominate provincial political discussions.

The United Conservatives now face a truly weird combination of factors: a complete lack of ability to get anything they want from within the Canadian system, and the utter ability to leave that system. It isn’t that anyone in power in Edmonton is agitating for independence, but it will become obvious very soon that discussions of and processes towards independence are the only thing Albertans are actually in charge of.

We’ll save the implications of at-this-point-still-theoretical Albertan independence for another time. Even if the incoming Albertan government were dead-set on a secession referendum—and they are not—simply going through the motions to achieve that end will take a few months.

But as a teaser consider that Alberta by itself is the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, Canada is the tenth-largest economy, and the bilateral American-Canadian bilateral trade relationship has been the world’s largest for the bulk of the past two generations. One way or another, all things Canadian are now firmly on our radar, reaching up to the level of importance of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, the ongoing Japanese and Russian resurgences, and the pending European and Chinese disintegrations.

For Canadians everywhere, that alone should be terrifying.

Original story here
 
captain morgan
+5
#1562
Quote: Originally Posted by petros View Post

Can't have a dollar worth a dollar. Either AB & SK take the hit or princess Ontario will tank.


Ontario tanking will be no different than hitting the reset button.


In reality, the failed economies in the East are no different than a junkie that needs just one more hit, then I'll kick it for good.

Cash from oil/gas, mining and forestry is 'the hit' but in this case, they think that they can get their junk on never-ending credit
 
JLM
+1
#1563
Quote: Originally Posted by B00Mer View Post

aaagh! Okay.. taking a wild guess.. you voted NDP?


I did for over 30 years...…………...NOT any more! I don't feel ANY loyalty toward any party.
 
JLM
+1
#1564
"Alberta needs Ralph Klein, some comedy relief to forget the bad economy."...………...Now you are talking sense!
 
Twin_Moose
+2
#1565
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

Every single Albertan will pay higher provincial taxes as Kenney has not indexed tax brackets. This is a $600 million tax increase.
Vehicle registration and recreational vehicle registration fees are increasing.
Municipal taxes will increase to cover lower transfers from the province.
New fees on tourism levies – like hotel rooms and Airbnb accommodations.
Increased tobacco and vaping taxes.
Jason Kenney - Another pretend conservative

You have no choice if you want to balance he budget we did and we are now balanced I'm expecting a reduction in taxes this budget
 
Twin_Moose
+3
#1566
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

Elimination of the scientific research and experimental development credit
Removal of the interactive digital media credit, which targeted job creation in software design.
Kenney is afraid to technology

Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

Broken explicit platform promise to maintain the city charter with Edmonton & Calgary and the funding arrangements included it in.
Cuts grants in lieu of property tax on its buildings, meaning a cut to municipal funding.
Kenney undermines municipalities

Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

Budget takes back full control of public service pension plans. Giving the government control over benefits and investments of the plan
Kenney loves more bureaucracy

Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

Trumpite loves lying taxing politicians

What has any of these things helped Alberta, they need to balance their budget and reduce their debt, the fast track is to eliminate equalization and put 10 Billion back into the coffers/year
 
Cannuck
#1567
Trumpite hates efficient government. Likes to cut transfers to municipalities
 
Cannuck
#1568
Trumpite also thinks Kenney can tell the Feds where to spend their money.
 
Curious Cdn
#1569
Quote: Originally Posted by JLM View Post

"Alberta needs Ralph Klein, some comedy relief to forget the bad economy."...………...Now you are talking sense!

I'M,m pretty sure that only a few of us would notice that his corpse is rotting away, if you dig him up.
 
Twin_Moose
+2
#1570
A brief explainer of the alienated West: where it comes from and how it will respond

Quote:

OTTAWA — At a crowded lunch event in Calgary on Thursday, former prime minister Jean Chrétien downplayed tensions between western provinces and Ottawa. Separatist sentiments have persisted in Quebec and Western provinces for as long as anyone can remember, he shrugged. “I’ve had to live with that all my life,” Chrétien said. Former prime minister Stephen Harper, on the same stage with Chrétien, could not have been more starkly opposed. Western alienation is “on the rise for obvious reasons,” and had caught hold in numbers that are “quite shocking,” said Harper. Jesse Snyder and Stuart Thomson explain a few of the factors feeding western alienation.
An economic malaise
The Alberta oilpatch has been in disarray ever since global oil prices collapsed in the middle of 2014, pummelling corporate balance sheets and causing thousands of job losses. At the time, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a common American benchmark for crude oil, cascaded down from around US$100 per barrel to just over US$30 in six short months.
The collapse came as part of a massive boost in oil production in the preceding years that fed a substantial oversupply of the global market. Worst of all for Canadian producers, the main cause of that oversupply — the U.S. — continued to churn out more and more barrels as investors poured money into operations in Texas and New Mexico, favouring the faster investment returns they offered. Five years later, oil prices remain stuck at around half the level of early 2014.
But this only added to an even more frustrating reality: the Canadian oil industry has failed for more than 15 years to successfully build a single major pipeline, as legal and regulatory challenges caused widespread delays.
Even as oilsands production continues to grow, years-long delays or cancellations of projects like Keystone XL, Northern Gateway and Trans Mountain have led to a severe shortage of pipeline capacity, forcing producers to ship hundreds of thousands of barrels every month by rail rather than pipeline — a far more costly option.
That has in turn extended Canadian companies’ long dependence on U.S. buyers, and forced them to sell their oil at a steep discount compared to competitors. With little bargaining power, Canadian firms have had to sell their barrels for as much as US$40 less than their American counterparts. And those discounts persist today: the price for Western Canadian Select (WCS), a Canadian heavy oil benchmark, was trading at US$34 per barrel on Friday compared with US$55 for American blends...…………..Click the link for More

 
spilledthebeer
#1571
Quote: Originally Posted by JLM View Post

I used to have a lot of regard for Chrystia Freeland as I had read up on her background and admired her for her articulousness and her careful thought process and unfortunately after being in the position for awhile I quickly determined she had become Trudeau's "YES" woman!




Uh............................."articulousness"??? ???????????????????????????


What language is that????????????????????



AS for Freeland..........................she is simply a LIE-beral!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


She is TAINTED GOODS that have been FURTHER poisoned by the company she keeps!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



I say "FURTHER" with good reason!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


After all - SHE CHOSE to become a LIE-beral!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Which indicates POISONED thought process to begin with!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
JLM
-1
#1572
Quote: Originally Posted by spilledthebeer View Post

Uh............................."articulousness"??? ???????????????????????????


What language is that????????????????????



AS for Freeland..........................she is simply a LIE-beral!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


She is TAINTED GOODS that have been FURTHER poisoned by the company she keeps!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



I say "FURTHER" with good reason!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


After all - SHE CHOSE to become a LIE-beral!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Which indicates POISONED thought process to begin with!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


They are just a party with a platform...………..you can't blame the party too much for the members being thieves and liars!
 
NZDoug
#1573
Join Saudi Arabia and try to get them to pay their bills.
OOOOPS, that's Canada.
If yer w USA, feckem.
 
taxslave
+5
#1574
Our political landscape is starting to look a lot like Hunger Games is what the Feds are using for a model.
 
petros
+4
#1575
With Prairie oil on the global market it gets really hard to devalue the CAD by 25% to keep the ON Unifor lackies working.
 
petros
+4
#1576
Quote: Originally Posted by NZDoug View Post

Join Saudi Arabia and try to get them to pay their bills.
OOOOPS, that's Canada.
If yer w USA, feckem.

Aramco is worth well over a Trillion and a half. Just 10% of that equity to loan against would rebuild Canadian infrastructure and create enough capacity to carry us forward 100 years.

Imagine the eco-fascist uproar that would cause.
 
Curious Cdn
#1577
Quote: Originally Posted by petros View Post

Aramco is worth well over a Trillion and a half. Just 10% of that equity to loan against would rebuild Canadian infrastructure and create enough capacity to carry us forward 100 years.
Imagine the eco-fascist uproar that would cause.

Imagine having Sharia Law imposed on you.
 
Tecumsehsbones
#1578
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

Imagine having Sharia Law imposed on you.

How would that be a problem?
 
pgs
+4
#1579
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

How would that be a problem?

Instantly get half the cars off the roads by banning female drivers , should be good for air quality .
 
JLM
+1 / -1
#1580
Quote: Originally Posted by pgs View Post

Instantly get half the cars off the roads by banning female drivers , should be good for air quality .


Not to mention getting ALL the women off the road! (Sorry couldn't resist)
 
Curious Cdn
#1581
Quote: Originally Posted by JLM View Post

Not to mention getting ALL the women off the road! (Sorry couldn't resist)

Did the lit'l lady git her stove, yet.
 
Hoid
#1582
I thought woman wee allowed to drive in Saudi Arabia now
 
Tecumsehsbones
#1583
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

I thought woman wee allowed to drive in Saudi Arabia now

They won't be in the new Caucasistan.
 
JLM
-1
#1584
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

Did the lit'l lady git her stove, yet.


Nah, she got an early Xmas present - Four brand new Hercules snow tires on the car - told her they may have to do for two Xmases. Had to postpone the stove for a couple of years.
 
JLM
-1
#1585
Quote: Originally Posted by pgs View Post

Instantly get half the cars off the roads by banning female drivers , should be good for air quality .


Yeah, the silence might be golden!
 
B00Mer
#1586
Interesting video

https://youtu.be/SLUxWha_W7M
 
AnnaEmber
#1587
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

How would that be a problem?

Really. Then maybe we could honour-kill some politicians.
 
AnnaEmber
+1
#1588
Quote: Originally Posted by pgs View Post

Instantly get half the cars off the roads by banning female drivers , should be good for air quality .

lol.
 
AnnaEmber
#1589
Quote: Originally Posted by JLM View Post

Not to mention getting ALL the women off the road! (Sorry couldn't resist)

Get used to public transit then, Miss.
 
AnnaEmber
+1
#1590
Quote: Originally Posted by JLM View Post

Nah, she got an early Xmas present - Four brand new Hercules snow tires on the car - told her they may have to do for two Xmases. Had to postpone the stove for a couple of years.

Kinda hard on the kitchen floor having a campfire there, though.