The US is heading for a Recession?


mentalfloss
#1



US economy is headed for recession and the Fed will be held responsible, SocGen bear warns

With credit card delinquencies rising sharply at smaller banks, Societe Generale's uber-bearish strategist Albert Edwards has predicted that the U.S. economy is headed for recession.

"Markets are now sniffing out a rising stench," Edwards claimed in his latest research note, published Thursday.

Edwards said a flattening of the U.S. yield curve — where the difference between short-dated and longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields narrow — was revealing investor fears about the economic recovery, despite punchy data related to consumer and business optimism.

"The optimists have had their day. This data merely reflects the illusion of prosperity," Edwards argued.


Edwards cited data which showed that credit card charge-off rates at small U.S. banks had peaked to 7.9 percent. This is a level not seen since the end of the global financial crisis. Charge-off rates represent the level of debt that a creditor has decided it has no chance of collecting.

A similar but separate analysis measuring credit card delinquency also revealed an alarming spike at small banks.

While Edwards has often been seen as an outlier to wider market thinking, more voices have speculated that U.S. householders are seeing their finances stretched.

"All the data we've seen over the last few weeks has basically been that the consumer is maxed out, we've seen that in credit card loans as well, so I think the consumer is done spending the money," said Steen Jakobsen, economist at Danish investment house Saxo Bank on Tuesday.

And a report from Chet Malhotra, from asset management firm TCW, has also suggested late fees, cash advance and over-limit fees in the U.S. are on the rise.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/29/us-r...t-edwards.html
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#2
I hope so. I missed the boat in 08 when I could have snapped up a retirement place cheap.
 
Hoid
#3
The Fed?

The Fed is the only reason it ever survived 2008
 
Cliffy
Free Thinker
#4
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
#5
The FED guaranteed the US will have a massively inflated collapse when in 2008 they bailed out the crooks and not the people,( with the people's money) .


Like getting your poor sick grandma hooked on Hoid's afghani opium so you can steal all her money and weiner her onto the casting couch to give her the Bill.
 
Walter
+2
#6
Yep, that recession is just around the corner.
U.S. Jobless Claims Decline to Lowest Level Since January 1973
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-january-1973

Maga
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
-1
#7
Thanks Obama
 
Tecumsehsbones
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

Thanks Obama

He did what he could to minimize the pain and the depth of the recession.

But here's the hard fact: the U.S., and every other country, is always headed for a recession. And there ain't much president, PM, or potentate can do about that.

Obviously, if a HoG could prevent a recession, she would. Cuz recessions suck. But the most a HoG can do is, as I said, minimize the pain and depth of the recession by a few percent.
 
darkbeaver
Republican
+2
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

I hope so. I missed the boat in 08 when I could have snapped up a retirement place cheap.

Is cardboard out of your reach now?
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

... she would.

You raving leftard!!!
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

I hope so. I missed the boat in 08 when I could have snapped up a retirement place cheap.

Yeah, but kicking all of the old folks out into the cold is a bit of a drag. You have to pry their knurly fingers off of the door frames as you haul them out.
 
Walter
+1 / -1
#12
Recessions are necessary for a healthy economy, gets rid of the dead wood.
 
Tecumsehsbones
+3
#13  Top Rated Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

You raving leftard!!!

No, just sufficiently awakened not to assume all HoGs are men (and sufficiently literate not to misuse the term "woke").

If I was a raving leftard, I'd use zhe, or xe, or somesuch.

I still kinda like "shithead" as the brand-new, non-gender-specific pronoun.
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

Yeah, but kicking all of the old folks out into the cold is a bit of a drag. You have to pry their knurly fingers off of the door frames as you haul them out.

It ain't cold in Corpus Christi. They'd manage.

Had a buddy buy a 2 year old, 1400 sqft house in Florence Arizona on a golf course for 65k in 08. It's worth 185k now. Had I not been dealing with the wife's health issues I would have been all over it.

Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

No, just sufficiently awakened not to assume all HoGs are men (and sufficiently literate not to misuse the term "woke").

If I was a raving leftard, I'd use zhe, or xe, or somesuch.

I still kinda like "shithead" as the brand-new, non-gender-specific pronoun.

That's sounds suspiciously like something Justin would say and they don't get any lefter than that.
 
mentalfloss
#15
On a more positive note, once the boomers finally die off (and no disrespect to boomers, anyone who retires becomes a financial liability) things will get better.
 
Tecumsehsbones
+2
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post

On a more positive note, once the boomers finally die off (and no disrespect to boomers, anyone who retires becomes a financial liability) things will get better.

Feel free to shuffle off this mortal coil at your convenience, sir.
 
Hoid
#17
It is the transfer of wealth that happens with the death of the baby boomers that will cause an uptick in the economy

It already has
 
taxslave
Free Thinker
+1
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by Walter View Post

Yep, that recession is just around the corner.
U.S. Jobless Claims Decline to Lowest Level Since January 1973
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-january-1973

Maga

Trump's fault.
 
darkbeaver
Republican
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

It is the transfer of wealth that happens with the death of the baby boomers that will cause an uptick in the economy

It already has

Are you investing in mortuaries or caskets or both? Plots anyone? You think our death will help you, you think you can steer a planet, the uptick you,ll get is war, it,s time,full employment and vibrant economys tons of bullets and uniforms, generating history, again, meanwhile the whales I wish I was a tree sometimes,

I,d rather have bark than skin.
 
mentalfloss
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

Feel free to shuffle off this mortal coil at your convenience, sir.

I'm fine with paying for them to live longer lives, but they're the ones that don't want the support.

They'd rather have another war to teach us youngins the value of a dollar.
 
darkbeaver
Republican
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post

I'm fine with paying for them to live longer lives, but they're the ones that don't want the support.

They'd rather have another war to teach us youngins the value of a dollar.

You have a point, certanly my generation bears the guilt of the presents incarnation, you can whine all you want about our guilt we,re dead stupid or almost dead, get out of your moms basement and change the world

make sure to look both ways before you cross the street and tie your fukkin shoe laces.

get a fukkin haircut
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
+1 / -1
#22
Doesn't seem likely in the short term. Not sure where some of Flossie's notions come from. Maybe the Sunday Comics!
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by darkbeaver View Post

You have a point, certanly my generation bears the guilt of the presents incarnation

It's not about blame. It is about making change. Unfortunately the JLMs, Das' and Wallys of the world are a significant voting block and (contrary to Petros) they've been on the government teat for 50 years. I get that they don't want to admit it or don't see it but government deficits are nothing more than taxpayers getting more out then they're putting in. It's a way of life for their generation. Time for a change.
 
darkbeaver
Republican
#24
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

It's not about blame. It is about making change. Unfortunately the JLMs, Das' and Wallys of the world are a significant voting block and (contrary to Petros) they've been on the government teat for 50 years. I get that they don't want to admit it or don't see it but government deficits are nothing more than taxpayers getting more out then they're putting in. It's a way of life for their generation. Time for a change.

I,m on the government teat and it,s sweet, that,s why I voted in favour of me, you,re the rabble and should be thankfull we don,t eradicate you, of course that,s unrealistic, who would move the garbage arround? In the future if you could form your simplistic inquireys in a condensded form we would appreciate the effort, and you could earn points what the hell are you tal;king avbout
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#25
Well that made sense.

You and Pete must be on the same stuff
 
petros
#26
So who funded "the trough"? Alberta Human Services like you SpEd job?
 
White_Unifier
#27
Quote: Originally Posted by petros View Post

So who funded the trough?

Lenders?
 
petros
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

Lenders?

The was no trough.

Now there is, maybe Putz can get you on at the bottle depot funded by Govt.
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by petros View Post

So who funded "the trough"? Alberta Human Services like you SpEd job?

Borrowed money. I know you aren't particularly bright but here's a little tidbit for you to chew on....Canada is in debt.

Quote: Originally Posted by petros View Post

The was no trough.

Have another
 
Gilgamesh
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post




US economy is headed for recession and the Fed will be held responsible, SocGen bear warns

With credit card delinquencies rising sharply at smaller banks, Societe Generale's uber-bearish strategist Albert Edwards has predicted that the U.S. economy is headed for recession.

"Markets are now sniffing out a rising stench," Edwards claimed in his latest research note, published Thursday.

Edwards said a flattening of the U.S. yield curve — where the difference between short-dated and longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields narrow — was revealing investor fears about the economic recovery, despite punchy data related to consumer and business optimism.

"The optimists have had their day. This data merely reflects the illusion of prosperity," Edwards argued.


Edwards cited data which showed that credit card charge-off rates at small U.S. banks had peaked to 7.9 percent. This is a level not seen since the end of the global financial crisis. Charge-off rates represent the level of debt that a creditor has decided it has no chance of collecting.

A similar but separate analysis measuring credit card delinquency also revealed an alarming spike at small banks.

While Edwards has often been seen as an outlier to wider market thinking, more voices have speculated that U.S. householders are seeing their finances stretched.

"All the data we've seen over the last few weeks has basically been that the consumer is maxed out, we've seen that in credit card loans as well, so I think the consumer is done spending the money," said Steen Jakobsen, economist at Danish investment house Saxo Bank on Tuesday.

And a report from Chet Malhotra, from asset management firm TCW, has also suggested late fees, cash advance and over-limit fees in the U.S. are on the rise.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/29/us-r...t-edwards.html

Wrong. The economy is doing very well. All sectors are continuing the improvement started in the last of Obamas term. Mfg is returning, oil prodn has increased so that THE USA is now the largest oil producer in the world.

The new tax bill is doing even more for their GDP.

FTR I despise Trump but I dont allow that to colour my opinions.

Canada, on the other hand................
 

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