"We are experiencing the weakest solar cycle since the Dalton Minimum..."


Locutus
+3
#1
In November our sun was once again below normal in activity. The 84th month since the current solar cycle started in December 2008 saw a solar sunspot number (SSN) of 63.2, which was 72% of what is the mean for month 84 into a cycle since observations began in 1755.




Figure 1: Our current solar cycle (SC) 24 (red) compared to the mean cycle (blue) of the previous 23 cycles. The current cycle over the past year or so as been very similar to solar cycle number 5 (black) which occurred from 1798 to 1810.

What follows is a comparison of all cycles:




Figure 2: The accumulated monthly deviations anomaly from the mean value (blue curve in Figure 1) for each cycle.
The current solar cycle 24 is weak compared to the previous cycles beginning with solar cycle 18 (1945). The books are practically closed for the current cycle as it is not expected to become more active and activity is expected to trail off. We are experiencing the weakest solar cycle since the Dalton Minimum 1790-1830, which involved solar cycles 5, 6 and 7.

What’s ahead?

For estimating the solar sunspot activity of the next upcoming cycle, observing the polar fields during times of activity minima provides strong indications. We reported on this here . So what can we expect some three years before the awaited minimum?


Figure 3: The polar fields of the sun since 1976. (Source: stanford.edu )

Early indications of a modestly active solar cycle 25

Especially the south polar field (show in red in Figure 3) is beginning to show signs of strengthening a little, yet is still behind the values of the very active cycles that occurred during the second half of the 20th century. This could be an indication that solar cycle number 25 may not be much weaker than the current cycle, but also not stronger. We will know more in about 3 years.


November 2015 Solar Report: Sunspot Activity Remains The Weakest Since Dalton Minimum Of Early 1800s



Wait until the Maunder Minimum. The leftists will pray to whatever secular god they have for more carbon emissions.


#sunnyway #parkas
 
Danbones
+1
#2
got my nice dunlop ice fishing boots
good to 60 below. no felts
so...bring it
( also a good place to leg a flask so the booze don't freeze)
 
spaminator
+1
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by Locutus View Post

Dalton Minimum

sounded like a mcguilty scheme.
 
lone wolf
#4
Don't even think it. It'll be the next rip-off campaign....
 
mentalfloss
#5
You're just now realizing we are on the cold end of the solar cycle while the Earth is still warming.

Congrats.
 
EagleSmack
+4
#6  Top Rated Post
After temperature adjustments to fit the politics of course.
 
MHz
#7
A rose by any other name, is the ice on my swamp going to get thicker (safer) in the winter or not? An extended winter would not be greeted as bad news.
 
Johnnny
#8
I'm just shooting this out there but our warm winter they say is cause of El nino and all that excess warm water on our side of the Pacific. They say.... Last year was cold though

I follow the sun she is still putting out energy, a sun spot has been observed everyday this year while we had 1 spotless day in 2014. If that means anything to anyone
 
Walter
+2
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post

You're just now realizing we are on the cold end of the solar cycle while the Earth is still warming.

Congrats.

Glad you now realize man has nothing to do with it.
 
MHz
+1
#10
'Honest observers' is still a role that is open for the taking. 'Along for the ride is the waiver you have to sign first.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54U5uvrkho4

Quote: Originally Posted by Johnnny View Post

I'm just shooting this out there but our warm winter they say is cause of El nino and all that excess warm water on our side of the Pacific. They say.... Last year was cold though

Depends on if that water heats up more during this winter, if it does they may want to look at 40,000 miles of undersea rifts as being to blame.

400 million square kilometers / 200M years = 1.81M sq km/yr allowing for growth to the current length.
The red area in the Pacific off the coast of BC is upstream from the hot water at the equator, heat goes downstream like everything else. The temperature rise is also found in the top 2,000 ft rather than the full depth to the crust. That is a pretty big 'unknown' as far as what might be terminating life in that same area.
Last edited by MHz; Dec 17th, 2015 at 01:32 PM..
 
mentalfloss
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Walter View Post

Glad you now realize man has nothing to do with it.

I don't think you can read.
 
Mowich
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by Locutus View Post

In November our sun was once again below normal in activity. The 84th month since the current solar cycle started in December 2008 saw a solar sunspot number (SSN) of 63.2, which was 72% of what is the mean for month 84 into a cycle since observations began in 1755.




Figure 1: Our current solar cycle (SC) 24 (red) compared to the mean cycle (blue) of the previous 23 cycles. The current cycle over the past year or so as been very similar to solar cycle number 5 (black) which occurred from 1798 to 1810.

What follows is a comparison of all cycles:




Figure 2: The accumulated monthly deviations anomaly from the mean value (blue curve in Figure 1) for each cycle.
The current solar cycle 24 is weak compared to the previous cycles beginning with solar cycle 18 (1945). The books are practically closed for the current cycle as it is not expected to become more active and activity is expected to trail off. We are experiencing the weakest solar cycle since the Dalton Minimum 1790-1830, which involved solar cycles 5, 6 and 7.

What’s ahead?

For estimating the solar sunspot activity of the next upcoming cycle, observing the polar fields during times of activity minima provides strong indications. We reported on this here . So what can we expect some three years before the awaited minimum?


Figure 3: The polar fields of the sun since 1976. (Source: stanford.edu )

Early indications of a modestly active solar cycle 25

Especially the south polar field (show in red in Figure 3) is beginning to show signs of strengthening a little, yet is still behind the values of the very active cycles that occurred during the second half of the 20th century. This could be an indication that solar cycle number 25 may not be much weaker than the current cycle, but also not stronger. We will know more in about 3 years.


November 2015 Solar Report: Sunspot Activity Remains The Weakest Since Dalton Minimum Of Early 1800s



Wait until the Maunder Minimum. The leftists will pray to whatever secular god they have for more carbon emissions.


#sunnyway #parkas

Maybe yes, maybe no, Loc. From what I just read the jury is still out on the effect of the Maunder Minimum on global temps. Guess will just have to wait and see.