Latest Federal Polls


VIBC
No Party Affiliation
+1
#631
Even blatant over-the-top sarcasm is too subtle for some folks; can't even recognise when they're being mimicked.
 
Twin_Moose
Conservative
+3
#632
Quote: Originally Posted by VIBC View Post

Even blatant over-the-top sarcasm is too subtle for some folks; can't even recognise when they're being mimicked.

More like blatant hypocrisy
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
+2
#633
Ah, 99% of the internet is either or
*sigh*

What they don't want is

Happy people don't NEED to spend money.
https://bestlifeonline.com/money-free-happiness/

...Just remember: Happiness can't buy debt based currency.


The pole I would like to see U.N.trudie go down on at this point is the Vlad pole.
Last edited by Danbones; Apr 15th, 2019 at 09:38 AM..
 
Twin_Moose
Conservative
+1
#634
Follow up to Petro's post yesterday

Liberals, Trudeau hit new low but poll suggests surging Tory support is soft

Quote:

OTTAWA — A new poll suggests support for Justin Trudeau, his government and his party sank to a new low this month, just six months before Canadians will decide whether to re-elect the Liberals or give them the boot after just one term.
But it also provides a glimmer of hope for the beleaguered prime minister, suggesting that support for Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives is soft and could yet dwindle as the Oct. 21 election draws closer.
And it suggests the Liberals could rebound if the election plays out as a polarized choice between them and the Tories, squeezing out the NDP and Green party.
According to the Leger poll, conducted April 18-22 for The Canadian Press, just 27 per cent of respondents said they'd vote for Trudeau's Liberals — 13 points behind Scheer's front-running Conservatives, who, at 40 per cent, were in the range needed to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.
The Tories led in every region except Quebec, where the Liberals enjoyed an eight-point lead with 31 per cent support; the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois were tied at 23 per cent.
Nationally, the NDP had 12 per cent support, one point ahead of the Green party; Maxime Bernier's fledgling People's Party of Canada registered just three per cent.
Only 30 per cent of respondents said they were very or somewhat satisfied with the Trudeau government while 65 per cent said they were very or somewhat dissatisfied — worrying numbers for the prime minister that were reflected across every region and demographic group.
Moreover, Trudeau was five points behind Scheer on the question of who would make the best prime minister, with 20 per cent to the Conservative leader's 25 per cent.
Still, when asked if Canada would be better off with a Liberal or Conservative government, 30 per cent chose the Liberals and 25 per cent picked the Tories. Fully 45 per cent said they didn't know.
Among respondents who identified as primarily NDP or Green supporters, a Liberal government was preferred by 48 and 42 per cent respectively, compared to just 18 and 23 per cent who preferred a Conservative government.
"That again to me is sort of a yellow light for the Conservatives," said Leger executive vice-president Christian Bourque, adding that Conservative support appears to be "fairly soft."
"Yes, they are in the lead but to what extent that lead is comfortable at this point, I certainly think it's not."
Leger’s internet-based survey cannot be assigned a margin of error because online polls are not considered random samples. It surveyed 1,522 eligible Canadian voters who were recruited from the firm’s online panel. The results were weighted to reflect the makeup of Canada’s population.
Trudeau's popularity has taken a big hit since the SNC-Lavalin affair erupted in early February. He has lost two senior cabinet ministers, his most trusted adviser in principal secretary Gerald Butts, and the country's top public servant since allegations first appeared that former attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould felt improperly pressured by the prime minister's office to halt the criminal prosecution of the Montreal engineering giant.
The latest poll numbers are the lowest Leger has recorded for the Liberals and Trudeau since they took power in 2015.
The poll suggests potentially more trouble for Trudeau is in store following the election of openly hostile conservative governments in provinces across the country, particularly Ontario and Alberta.
Respondents were evenly split overall when asked if their province should be more demanding and contest federal decisions (as 41 per cent said) or do all it can to have an excellent and peaceful working relationship with Ottawa (40 per cent). But a plurality in Ontario and Manitoba-Saskatchewan (which Leger grouped together) and fully 60 per cent in Alberta preferred the more confrontational approach.
Moreover, a plurality or majority of respondents in every region except Ontario said their province doesn't get its fair share from Ottawa. Even in Ontario, opinion was split, with 39 per cent saying the province is treated fairly and 37 per cent saying it's not.
Noting that some provincial conservative leaders, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford and incoming Alberta premier Jason Kenney, won election by campaigning against the Trudeau government, Bourque said: "One more variable that Mr. Trudeau will need to consider in the next federal election is the fact that a lot of regional barons have turned people against Ottawa."
On two other issues that might be factors in the coming election, the poll suggest the Liberals are more on side with public opinion.
While Quebec respondents were strongly in favour of banning civil servants in positions of authority from wearing obvious religious symbols — as the provincial government has already moved to do — a plurality or majority of respondents in every other region were opposed. That could be to Trudeau's advantage: He has made the defence of charter rights and diversity a central pillar of his political appeal.
However, Bourque said the poll suggests the issue is "not all black and white" given that sizable numbers of Canadians outside Quebec also favour banning religious symbols.
Opinion was much more clear cut on the issue of gun control. More than 80 per cent of respondents indicated support for each of three key provisions in the Trudeau government's Bill C-71: requiring gun retailers to keep detailed registries of all gun sales, extending the police background check on a person applying for a gun permit to include his or her entire life and requiring authorization to transport restricted firearms.
And 77 per cent said they were somewhat or strongly in favour of stricter gun control in general while just 17 per cent said they were somewhat or strongly opposed.

 
spilledthebeer
#635
Quote: Originally Posted by VIBC View Post

Nothing.




I have an idea................................


LETS TALK ABOUT A REAL PROBLEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Consider:






Here is yet another damning article condemning the Child Welfare people!



With some comments of my own in brackets):

Child Welfare opened files on Charlie but never once met the neglected, starving boy! He reached this pitiful state despite MCFD knowing about him and his desperate family situation for a decade.

Dr. Jennifer Charlesworth, the B.C. Representative for Children and Youth, presented her damning report, Alone and Afraid, to the B.C. legislature this week. Office of the Representative for Children and Youth in British Columbia.

By Christie Blatchford

Published: December 11, 2018, 4:11 PM EST.

Filed under: Full Comment/ Post Media

To the searing annals of wholesale child-welfare failures across the country — Sara Podniewicz, Jordan Heikamp, Matthew Vaudreuil, Phoenix Sinclair, Jeffrey Baldwin are just those cases I personally covered and/or have written about — we can now add the name of Charlie, from British Columbia.

Charlie is the pseudonym given him by Dr. Jennifer Charlesworth, the B.C. Representative for Children and Youth, in her damning report, Alone and Afraid, to the B.C. legislature this week.

She had to use a pseudonym because Charlie, unlike the other children I’ve named, lived.

He was rescued — saved — by police and paramedics who on Jan. 20, 2016 arrived at Charlie’s home, alerted by a concerned citizen who had called the Ministry of Children and Family Development (MCFD) to report her fears for the little boy.

He answered the door, a naked, grotesquely malnourished 12-year-old who weighed 65 pounds and whose wasted frame was covered in dirt, sores and small bruises and notable for its protruding bones. The mere sight of him left the first responders traumatized. Charlie was all alone of course, and while the rest of the house was tidy, his room was covered in garbage and smeared with fecal matter.

They rushed him to hospital. He clung to the paramedics.

As Charlesworth noted, he reached this pitiful state — a special needs child, with autism, who nonetheless as the three years since demonstrate capable of so much — despite MCFD knowing about him and his desperate family situation for a decade.

It was in 2006 that police first alerted the ministry.

But over the next 10 years, despite a total of eight reports from concerned school principals, a hospital social worker, BC Children’s Hospital, nurses and others that Charlie was being neglected and that his mother couldn’t or wouldn’t care for him, not one of the myriad of child-protection workers and supervisors who were involved with the family ever once saw the little boy.

Instead, they busied themselves by reading Charlie’s file.

They consulted with peers.

Sometimes, they made phone calls.

They consulted with their supervisors.

Once in a while, they even deigned to make a “home visit.”

(A SANE person would have to ask what is the good of a “home visit” if you do not ever get to SEE the child you are allegedly worried about?? And if you never actually see the filthy room he is living in???????????)

(But then there is HARD EVIDENCE that Child Welfare civil service union HOGS would NOT have taken any real action anyway! The day before Sara Podniewicz DIED of Pnemonia caused by breathing difficulties from her BROKEN RIBS- a Welfare Hog CAME TO THE HOUSE in Parkdale- and met with the kid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

During the meeting the Hog put a bracelet onto the girls ankle- WITHOUT NOTICING the leg was BROKEN!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Sometimes, Charlie was even there, but there is no evidence, Charlesworth says, that any one of these workers actually saw — in the literal, clamped-eyes-upon sense — Charlie. His mother would say he was sleeping. Or that he was anxious about strangers. Or that he was playing in another room.

Now and then a worker would actually look around the home, but never did one venture into Charlie’s room.

One worker tried six times to contact Charlie’s mother by phone, unsuccessfully. She made a busy little plan to conduct a home visit. Then she went on vacation.

In her absence, no one did a thing.

Another worker called Charlie’s mom before closing the file. Mom reported that things were going along swimmingly. The child-protection worker didn’t speak with the pediatrician or any of the other people who were supposedly involved in Charlie’s care before consulting with her team leader, who of course approved closing the file.

The worker “had still never seen Charlie” nor spoken to his often-absent father or his older brother.

Yet, nonetheless, the worker sent the mom a closing letter on June 16, 2008, cheerfully telling her she was “doing an incredible job, a job that so many of us could never do, even with all the services you were lacking.”

(Gosh! Praising the Mom like that illustrates an even more delusional mindset than that of Wynne-bag Ontari-owe LIE-berals who told us repeatedly all was well even as they turned Ontari-owe into the most indebted sub national political entity on the planet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

With all the respect it deserves — none — how the hell would the worker know that? She’d never seen the boy.

It was not as though Charlie was ever doing well.

When he was four, his parents (the father had yet to be given the boot from the house) finally took him to a doctor because he was bleeding from the mouth; of course he was, because his teeth were rotting. The doctor prescribed penicillin and referred him to a dentist at the Children’s Hospital and for an autism assessment.

Alas, if his parents got the penicillin, they took it, because Charlie never got it and the infection raged until he stopped being able to walk.

Most of his baby teeth had to be removed. He was always, at best, painfully thin and pale. His legs were swollen.

At the hospital, various professionals referred Charlie’s parents to various other professionals and services and benefit programs, and though a counsellor worked for a time with Charlie’s mother, the file was eventually closed.

(How much of this close the file crap is an unspoken admission that NOTHING CAN BE DONE because of the LIE-beral commitment to keeping the family together at virtually ANY PRICE?? LIE-berals insist the Morther/child bond is sacred even as the Mother is killing the kid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The only way to save the kid is to take him away from the scumbag Mom and LIE-berals REFUSE to do that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! )

They might just as well have been speaking in pig Latin.

At various points, there were concerns that Charlie’s parents were using cocaine and later, when the boy was finally apprehended from his mother and blood tests revealed crystal meth in her system, why, she was “shocked.”

(Oh? Drugs were involved? Such a surprise! The mother of Sara Podniewicz was working as a hooker in Parkdale to keep herself and hubby supplied with crack and it is likely that Sara was seen as the child of one of her Johns and thus was disposable- although the welfare money given for her was HANDY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

The boy is now living in foster care and is back in school.

There are staggering similarities with Charlie’s case and the others I mentioned — clear signs of neglect being ignored; social workers’ and the agency’s obsession with paperwork over people; most gallingly, the repeated failure to understand that in child welfare, the child is the freaking client, not the parent, however sad he or she may be.

(LIE-berals would rather see a child DIE than set up an “adversarial relationship” between parent and child!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Child protection is no easy business, nor is it for the faint of heart. But for all the value of Charlesworth’s tough investigation, she and I part company where, early on, she said, “This report is not meant to cast blame on individual social workers or their supervisors,” but rather to shine a light on the problems.

(Oh yes- the problem is the LIE-beral interpretation of the law- that dictates that a BAD MOM is better than no Mom! And of course blame DOES COME BACK to the civil service union HOGS because they prefer LIE-beral gravy over common sense and legal logic and vote accordingly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

What happened to Charlie has happened too many times in Canada, to too many children, is so well-known and understood that the light is blinding. It is well past time to cast blame; God knows, there’s enough to go around, and around again.

(Our Child Welfare system has been colonized by the same sort of social justice warriors that Professor Jordan Peterson warned us were operating in our arts, political science and Women`s Studies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

(The Social Justice Warriors are out to rebuild our society into a Brave New World in their own POISONED IMAGE!! They want to build a dictatorship where the only things that works fast and effectively are LIE-beral govt propaganda ministry and the Human Rights Kangaroo Courts that will be used to SILENCE CRITICS of LIE-beral govt and the greed and mismanagement of civil service union HOGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
 
spaminator
+2
#636
LILLEY: Trudeau's best poll numbers still have him losing the fall election
Brian Lilley
Published:
May 4, 2019
Updated:
May 4, 2019 5:21 PM EDT
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau participates in an armchair discussion with Director of Canadian Affairs for Canada's Building Trade Unions (CBTU) Arlene Dunn at the 2019 CBTU Legislative Conference in Ottawa on Tuesday, April 30, 2019. Sean Kilpatrick / The Canadian Press
How bad are Justin Trudeau’s political fortunes these days?
The latest polling numbers from Campaign Research are the best he’s seen in some time and he’s still losing to Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives.
A poll of 1,471 adult Canadians conducted on April 30 and May 1 found 35% would back the Conservatives while 31% would back the Liberals.
The NDP under leader Jagmeet Singh were in a distant third place with 17% support.
Believe it or not, those are good numbers for Trudeau these days.
Story continues below
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but your article continues below.
He’s been dealing with some polls, like Leger, putting him at 27% support to Scheer’s 40%, and Angus Reid putting the Conservatives at 38% to the Liberals 25%.
Most polls show a tighter race, as does the latest from Campaign Research, and even then it is not good news for Trudeau and his team.
Regionally, his party only has a commanding lead in Quebec where the Liberals best the Conservatives 36% to 21% support. The Liberals have lost their lead in Atlantic Canada to the Conservatives and in British Columbia, things are looking bad with the Conservatives holding a 15 point lead over the Liberals.
The Liberals are actually in third place in B.C. with 23% support compared to 24% for the NDP and 38% for the Conservatives.
KINSELLA: Liberals jumping ship as S.S. Trudeau cruises towards proverbial iceberg
MARIN: Trudeau’s cabinet light on qualifications and competence
BONOKOSKI: Enemy No. 1 for Jason Kenney is not just Justin Trudeau
Their one bright spot is Ontario where the provincial government of Doug Ford may actually be helping Trudeau.
The Liberals have actually grown in support in Ontario since the last poll a month ago and lead with 36% support to the Conservatives 33% support, perhaps the result of the Ford government’s budget and controversies around the provincial PCs.
Yet in the middle of this, Trudeau is dealing with some major problems.
The SNC-Lavalin scandal that rocked his government costing him two cabinet ministers and two top advisors was back into the news this past week.
Not only was it back in the news due to The Simpsons episode that made it a punchline but also because of revelations about illegal donations to the Liberal Party and the ongoing court battle by the company to escape their bribery and corruption charges.
Add to that the news that star Liberal candidate Andrew Leslie is not running in the next election and will actually testify against the government in a trial and Trudeau’s week got worse.
Leslie, a former top commander in the military was seen as a star for the Liberals in 2015 because he brought military prestige as a former commander in Afghanistan. Now he will not only relinquish his Ottawa area seat, he is set to be called as a witness against the government in the trial of Vice-Admiral Mark Norman.
Vice-Admiral Norman, who is facing a prosecution that some see as overly political, is charged with leaking cabinet secrets over a navy shipbuilding deal.
It is too early to write off the Liberals for the next election — a week, as they say, is a lifetime in politics.
Yet when their best polls still have them losing, when Trudeau is tied with Scheer for best PM, as he is with these Campaign Research numbers, when the disapproval numbers for the PM are hitting 56% and that is an improvement, then things are not looking up for Trudeau.
It will be an interesting ride between now and voting day in October.
blilley@postmedia.com
http://torontosun.com/opinion/column...-fall-election
 
Colpy
Conservative
+2
#637
POLITICS


A new 338Canada projection has the Tories safely in majority territory

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest electoral model has the Conservatives winning 174 seats, while the Liberals face big losses in Ontario and Atlantic Canada

by Philippe J. Fournier May 5, 2019


Scheer jokes during his speech at the annual Press Gallery dinner in Gatineau, Que., on Saturday, May 4, 2019. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld)


Since Ottawa was hit by the SNC-Lavalin storm in early February, a staggering number of opinion polls have been conducted. Data nerds like myself are not complaining, but so many polls taken when public opinion is in flux creates a fair amount of noise—which may lead to considerable confusion for voters.
Case in point: polls in the past month alone have ranged from 13 point CPC leads (Angus Reid, Léger) to a 4 point LPC lead (Innovative Research), with other polling firms somewhere in the middle (namely: Ipsos, Nanos and Campaign Research). Obviously, not all these polls can be correct in the same time frame, but it’s by taking them all together and careful weighing the regional breakdowns that we can hope to reduce the noise and see the actual data.
Here are the federal polls published since the end of 2018:


The complete list of all federal polls can be found on this page .
To calculate the following 338 projection, polls are carefully weighted by field date, sample size, and broken down per region of the country. The 338 model also includes demographic data from the Canadian census in its simulations to link the movement of public opinion per electoral district. Historical data of past elections is also taken consideration in the model. Details of the 338 methodology and past performance of the model can be found here .
Readers should know that this is not a prediction of the outcome of the next election, but rather a projection of where the major parties stand according to current data. When/if the data changes, the projection then adjusts itself.
With 169 days until the federal election, here is the 338Canada electoral projection for May 5th 2019.
Popular Vote Projection

The Conservative Party of Canada leads the way with an average support of 36.6 per cent nationally (the projection 95 per cent confidence intervals are indicated on the graph below). Although federal voting intentions appeared to show a tightening gap between the CPC and LPC in the past weeks (coinciding with the SNC-Lavalin saga fading out of the news cycle), the latest polls published in the past days have propelled the CPC alone in first place.


The Liberal Party of Canada falls to an average of 29.9 per cent, its lowest level since the 338 tracking began in October 2018. The latest data made available indicates an erosion of support for the LPC from coast to coast—even in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, which both appeared to be Liberal strongholds only months ago.
Even with the Liberals sliding in voting intentions, the New Democratic Party still can’t seem to get any traction. Its average support stands at 15.9 per cent—a level that would most likely mean that many current NDP districts could change colour next fall.
The Green Party of Canada continues its slow, but steady ascent in voting intentions with an average of 9.7 per cent this week. However, as we will see below, this modest hike in public support does not necessarily translate into significant gains in the seat projection.
The Bloc québécois stands at an average 4.7 per cent (20.2 per cent in Quebec) and the People’s Party of Canada , 2.9 per cent.
How do these voting intentions translate into seats? Let’s crunch the numbers.
Seat Projection

With such levels of public support, the Conservatives now hold a commanding lead over their rivals in the seat projection. On average, the CPC wins 174 seats per simulation—just above the 170 seat threshold for a majority at the House of Commons.

The Liberals fall to an average of only 111 seats, with all but about a dozen seats west of the Ontario-Manitoba border.
Below are the seat projection probability densities for the CPC and LPC. The higher the bars, the more likely the outcome:

The NDP climbs modestly this week in the seat projection, which is more due to the Liberals’ slide than to a hike in NDP support. On average, the NDP wins 32 seats:

The latest data in Quebec shows a modest, but significant climb for the Bloc québécois. With about 20 per cent of support in Quebec, Yves-François Blanchet’s party wins an average of 17 seats per simulation.

Odds of Winning the Most Seats

With the data presented above, the 338 model compiles the outcome of 250,000 general election simulations. Since only the Liberals and Conservatives have a shot at winning the most seats (according to current data), we may graph the probability density of the seat total difference between the CPC and LPC (see graph below) and thus evaluate the odds of either party winning the election:

According to this week’s numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in a little more than 9 out of 10 simulations (91.1 per cent). In fact, the CPC wins 170 seats or more in almost six of 10 simulations (58 per cent).
Regional Breakdown

  • In the Atlantic provinces , after leading by 20 points or more for the better part of the last three years, the Liberals are now in a statistical tie with the Conservatives, with the CPC holding a slight edge in both the popular vote and seat projections.
  • In Quebec , although the Liberals are still in front (mostly in Montreal , Laval and in Western Quebec ), it is by no means a dominant lead, as the non-Liberal vote is splintered between the Bloc, the Conservatives, the NDP and the Greens. The Conservatives dominate the projection in the greater Quebec City region.
  • We also measure a statistical tie in Ontario , with the Tories holding the edge. Liberals are still projected in front in Toronto and Ottawa , but the 905 , Centre of Ontario and Southwestern Ontario are dominated by the CPC.
  • In the Prairies (Manitoba/Saskatchewan), the Conservatives are projected in the lead, except for a handful of districts in Winnipeg.
  • In Alberta , the Conservatives are expected to paint the entire province blue. All but one of the 34 districts are projected safe or likely CPC (the exception would be Edmonton-Strathcona ).
  • Finally, British Columbia is where we have measured the highest polling fluctuations of late, so there is a high level on uncertainty. On average, the CPC is projected ahead in the greatest number of districts, but the NDP and Greens are projected favourites for the Vanvouver Island districts, and the Liberals still win a their fair share in Greater Vancouver .
The complete map of the 338 Projection can be found here .


We are still more than five months away from election day, so the Conservatives still have plenty of time to squander this lead. However, in analyzing these numbers and especially the projection map , it is increasingly difficult to see a path towards a second straight majority for the Liberals.


In 2015, the Liberals swept the Atlantic provinces, won 80 seats in Ontario and ended up at 184 seats in total—only 14 seats above the majority threshold. Yet, current numbers suggest that the Liberals could lose a dozen seats in Atlantic Canada and at least 30 seats in Ontario. From this point, whatever happens in Quebec or B.C. cannot push the Grits past the majority line.


Moreover, with the Bloc at 20 per cent in Quebec and the Greens polling as high as ever in key parts of the country, not only are the Liberals not headed towards a majority, but they could very well be sent back to the opposition benches after a single term in power—as the results of this projection clearly show.


As Paul Wells wrote last week: “Politics isn’t physics, trends aren’t natural laws, and absolutely anything could happen before October”, and as a physicist, I fully concur. But recent provincial elections in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta lead to majority wins by parties that had been leading in the polls several months before election day.


Sometimes, when an electorate has made up its mind, whatever happens in a campaign is nothing but noise.
In hindsight, we understand now that the writing had been on the wall for quite a while for Kathleen Wynne, Philippe Couillard and Rachel Notley. We may just be seeing the same trend at the federal level.


We will see. Polls take snapshots of the present, not the future.


https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ott...ity-territory/

 
Hoid
#638
Still no conservative majority?

Oh well.
 
spilledthebeer
#639
Quote: Originally Posted by Danbones View Post

Ah, 99% of the internet is either or
*sigh*

What they don't want is

Happy people don't NEED to spend money.
https://bestlifeonline.com/money-free-happiness/

...Just remember: Happiness can't buy debt based currency.


The pole I would like to see U.N.trudie go down on at this point is the Vlad pole.




Its a FUNNY THING.............................................


LIE-berals refuse to recognize that it is easier to appreciate the simple things in life.............................................


if ALL your needs are taken care of first!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!



You dont need a mansion......................................


but you DO NEED a roof over your head...................................


and LIE-berals are making the simple roof HARD TO GET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


You dont need a Ferrari!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!


But you DO NEED fast and efficient transportation.................................... ...........


and LIE-berals want to take our cars OFF THE ROAD.........................................


WITHOUT the bother of building any new public transit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!


I agree that sitting beside still waters can make us feel good..........................................


so WHY are LIE-berals shrugging off the MILLIONS OF GALLONS OF SEWAGE over flowing from our inadequate treatment plants after every passing rain shower!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LIE-berals allegedly value patience and tolerance......................................... ..


so WHY are they importing so many Radical Muslims????????????????????????????


The CRAZY Jihadists are at WAR with the western world!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!



Do LIE-berlas HAVE ANY REAL PLAN?????????????????????????????


Or are they unable to see the outside world from inside that PORK BARREL they ARE STUCK IN??????????????????????
 
Colpy
Conservative
+1
#640
Latest polls and projections



Updated on May 06, 2019 at 11:20am ET

Poll averages







CON
36.7%
down-0.2




LIB
29.7%
up+0.1




NDP
15.8%
up+0.1




GRN
9.3%
up+0.1




BQ
4.8%
down-0.2




PPC
2.2%
Data unavailable0.0




OTH
1.5%
up+0.1



Seat projections





minority majority

CON 163
124 to 209



LIB 125
68 to 178



NDP 28
953



BQ 20
6 to 35



GRN 2
1 to 12



PPC 0
0 to 1



OTH0




Probability of winning




39%

Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority




35%

Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority




21%

Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority




4%

Probability of the Liberals winning a majority







The Conservatives have led in the polls since February, moving ahead of the Liberals as their support dropped in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin affair. The Conservatives would likely win the most seats if an election were held today, but whether it would be a majority is a toss-up. The New Democrats trail in third, while the Greens have hit new polling highs since the last election. The Bloc Québécois is in a good position to win more than the 12 seats needed to be a recognized party in the House of Commons.







Latest AveragesCON36.7%LIB29.7%NDP15.8%GRN9.3%BQ4.8%PPC2. 2%


The Conservatives are ahead in every region of the country except Quebec, where the Liberals have lost support but still hold the lead. Ontario and Atlantic Canada remain close races between the Liberals and Conservatives. The New Democrats are on track to lose most or all of their seats in Quebec, while the Greens are holding double-digits in Atlantic Canada and B.C.
 
Hoid
#641
Could you possibly take up more space?

Maybe another 27 enters
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
+1 / -1
#642
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

Could you possibly take up more space?

Maybe another 27 enters


You're taking up space!
 
Hoid
#643
Just not as much.
 
spaminator
#644
LILLEY: New poll puts Greens high, Conservatives in-line for win
Brian Lilley
Published:
June 9, 2019
Updated:
June 9, 2019 5:00 PM EDT
Green Party leader Elizabeth MayErnest Doroszuk / Toronto Sun
A growing threat to Justin Trudeau’s re-election may come from a source few would have considered just a few months ago.
The latest poll from Campaign Research shows support for Elizabeth May and the Green Party on the rise, helping split the progressive vote three ways.
Nationally, the poll puts the Conservatives in the lead with 35% support, the Liberals at 32%, NDP at 14% and Greens at 12%
While May is still a long way from becoming PM, her party’s change in fortunes is coming at the expense of the NDP and Liberals.
As recently as February the Greens were polling at just 7%.
Maybe this is due to the Greens winning a recent by-election in British Columbia, doubling their number of seats to two!
Or it could be a spin-off from the May 5 provincial ballot in P.E.I. where the Greens threatened to form government.
While this is certainly great news for May, I wouldn’t be popping the carbon-neutral champagne just yet.
The poll shows that while the Greens are up, their vote — like those of the Liberals and NDP — could be fluid.
Asking voters for each party if their decision was locked-in, those supporting both the Greens and NDP were most interested in switching.
Just seven per cent said they were committed to either NDP or Green, and would not consider another party.
The news wasn’t much better for Trudeau’s Liberals.
Just 17% of voters say that Team Trudeau is the only vote they would consider, meaning as many as half of those backing the Liberals are open to switching.
For the Conservatives, one quarter of voters say the blue team is their only option, showing that they have the most dedicated voters at this time.
In news that may shock the chattering classes who still think Trudeau is a shoo-in for re-election, the Conservatives have the ability to reach the greatest number of voters at this time.
When asked which parties respondents would consider voting for, the Conservatives caught the eye of 41% while the the Liberals were hot on their heels at 40%.
Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer are tied in voter approval, with 32% saying the two main leaders are doing a good job — but Elizabeth May trumps them both with a 35% approval rating.
Thankfully the bar is low for May.
She’ll never become PM and doesn’t have to worry about what she would do to the country.
Despite her high approval rating, just 9% think she would make the best PM — which sadly for the NDP is still two points above leader Jagmeet Singh, who has only convinced 7% of respondents that should lead the country.
Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives remain in the lead nationally, and in many right-leaning regions of the country to even win a majority government.
That said, these latest numbers show the Conservatives and Liberals in a tight race for Ontario.
Part of that is surely the spillover effect from the Ontario budget handed down by Doug Ford’s PC government — the controversy of which has dominated the news for weeks and eroded Scheer’s support in the process.
The best thing the Conservatives can hope for is that the Greens remain high, the progressive vote remains split and Trudeau doesn’t find his path back to Sunny Ways.
http://campaignresearch.ca/single-po...-in-on-the-NDP
http://torontosun.com/opinion/column...n-line-for-win
 
spilledthebeer
#645
Quote: Originally Posted by spaminator View Post

LILLEY: New poll puts Greens high, Conservatives in-line for win
Brian Lilley
Published:
June 9, 2019
Updated:
June 9, 2019 5:00 PM EDT
Green Party leader Elizabeth MayErnest Doroszuk / Toronto Sun
A growing threat to Justin Trudeau’s re-election may come from a source few would have considered just a few months ago.
The latest poll from Campaign Research shows support for Elizabeth May and the Green Party on the rise, helping split the progressive vote three ways.
Nationally, the poll puts the Conservatives in the lead with 35% support, the Liberals at 32%, NDP at 14% and Greens at 12%
While May is still a long way from becoming PM, her party’s change in fortunes is coming at the expense of the NDP and Liberals.
As recently as February the Greens were polling at just 7%.
Maybe this is due to the Greens winning a recent by-election in British Columbia, doubling their number of seats to two!
Or it could be a spin-off from the May 5 provincial ballot in P.E.I. where the Greens threatened to form government.
While this is certainly great news for May, I wouldn’t be popping the carbon-neutral champagne just yet.
The poll shows that while the Greens are up, their vote — like those of the Liberals and NDP — could be fluid.
Asking voters for each party if their decision was locked-in, those supporting both the Greens and NDP were most interested in switching.
Just seven per cent said they were committed to either NDP or Green, and would not consider another party.
The news wasn’t much better for Trudeau’s Liberals.
Just 17% of voters say that Team Trudeau is the only vote they would consider, meaning as many as half of those backing the Liberals are open to switching.
For the Conservatives, one quarter of voters say the blue team is their only option, showing that they have the most dedicated voters at this time.
In news that may shock the chattering classes who still think Trudeau is a shoo-in for re-election, the Conservatives have the ability to reach the greatest number of voters at this time.
When asked which parties respondents would consider voting for, the Conservatives caught the eye of 41% while the the Liberals were hot on their heels at 40%.
Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer are tied in voter approval, with 32% saying the two main leaders are doing a good job — but Elizabeth May trumps them both with a 35% approval rating.
Thankfully the bar is low for May.
She’ll never become PM and doesn’t have to worry about what she would do to the country.
Despite her high approval rating, just 9% think she would make the best PM — which sadly for the NDP is still two points above leader Jagmeet Singh, who has only convinced 7% of respondents that should lead the country.
Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives remain in the lead nationally, and in many right-leaning regions of the country to even win a majority government.
That said, these latest numbers show the Conservatives and Liberals in a tight race for Ontario.
Part of that is surely the spillover effect from the Ontario budget handed down by Doug Ford’s PC government — the controversy of which has dominated the news for weeks and eroded Scheer’s support in the process.
The best thing the Conservatives can hope for is that the Greens remain high, the progressive vote remains split and Trudeau doesn’t find his path back to Sunny Ways.
http://campaignresearch.ca/single-po...-in-on-the-NDP
http://torontosun.com/opinion/column...n-line-for-win






OH COME ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!


It is all very simple!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Conservatives STAY TRUE to their values!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


But LIE-berals and their civil service union HOG supporters HAVE NO VALUES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!


UNLESS SOMEBODY BUYS them some!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!


NDPers are seen in many places as HOPELESS IMBECILES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!


NDPers are nothing but the less intelligent branch of the LIE-beral family!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


NDPers lack the low guile and cunning to be proper LIE-berals!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


But the HOGS are ANGRY with screw up LIE-berals and their tax and spend MESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


And HOGS want to send a MESSAGE to Our idiot Boy .................................


so they have turned to support Greens!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!


HOGS have done this secure in the knowledge...............................


that GREENS WILL NEVER form a majority govt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!


Our HOGS are well aware that Greens are even WORSE managers than EITHER LIE-berals or NDPers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



And ISNT THAT a scary thought???????????????????????????


A political party MORE IDIOTIC than NDPers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!


In related news.......................................


actor Kieffer Sutherland rages at Doug Ford and states "you are NO Tommy Douglas"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!


Gosh...................the silver spoon actor............................................. ....


who was RAISED by a PAIR of WEALTHY Hollywood actors..........................................


and thus NEVER came in contact with ordinary people anyway!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!


And who has been living mostly in Hollywood for several DECADES....................................


and THUS KNOWS LITTLE about life in Wynne-bag Ontari-owe...................................


thinks he is ENTITLED to WHINE at an ELECTED OFFICIAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!



HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
spaminator
+1
#646
Scheer's Tories hold onto lead over Trudeau's Liberals in latest election poll
Canadian Press
Published:
June 14, 2019
Updated:
June 14, 2019 12:05 PM EDT
Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer.Azin Ghaffari / Postmedia File Photo
OTTAWA — A new poll suggests the federal Liberals have stopped the bleeding from the beating they took in the SNC-Lavalin furor.
The Leger poll suggests the Liberals have closed the gap slightly with the front-running Conservatives since April and dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government has eased a bit.
More significantly, the poll also suggests the Liberals have opened up a 14-point lead over the Conservatives when it comes to which of the two main parties Canadians would prefer to see form government after the Oct. 21 vote.
At the same time, however, the poll suggests more Canadians are worried about the prospect of four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals than they are about the Conservatives regaining power.
The poll of 1,528 Canadians, randomly recruited from Leger’s online panel, was conducted between June 7 and 10 for The Canadian Press; polling experts say online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not generate a random sample of the population.
Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they would vote for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives if an election were held today, versus 29% for Trudeau’s Liberals — a two-point dip for the Tories and a two-point uptick for the Grits.
Another 13% said they would vote for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, 11% for Elizabeth May’s Green Party and 3% for Maxime Bernier’s fledgling People’s Party of Canada.
Fifty-eight percent registered dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s government, down seven points, while 36% said they were satisfied, up five points.
And 25% picked Scheer as the leader they think would make the best prime minister, unchanged since April, while 22% picked Trudeau, up two points. Another 8% picked May, 6% chose Singh and 4% Bernier.
A Leger poll in April found support for the Liberals and Trudeau had sunk to a new low, in the immediate aftermath of the SNC-Lavalin affair. Trudeau lost two senior cabinet ministers, a top aide and the country’s top public servant as a result of allegations that his former attorney general, Jody Wilson-Raybould, was improperly pressured by the Prime Minister’s Office last fall to halt a criminal prosecution of the Montreal engineering giant.
While the latest survey suggests only very modest improvement for the ruling party on most questions, the biggest change came when respondents were asked whether Canada would be better off under a Liberal or a Conservative government: 34% preferred the Liberals versus 20% the Conservatives. In April, the Liberals had only a five-point lead over the Conservatives (30 to 25) on that question.
Leger executive vice-president Christian Bourque speculated that the shift is due to people getting past their initial reaction to the SNC-Lavalin affair and focusing on the choice they’ll have to make at the ballot box in October.
http://leger360.com/wp-content/uploa...-Intention.pdf
http://torontosun.com/news/national/...-election-poll
 
Twin_Moose
Conservative
+2
#647
With pre-election summer looming, Conservatives hang on to their lead
A new 338Canada/Maclean’s projection: Tories in the lead
Top link is CBC with an interpretation of a 4 point lead over Libs, and Maclean's with a 8-9 point lead I wonder who got more bail out money Lol
Last edited by Twin_Moose; 4 weeks ago at 09:39 AM..
 
spilledthebeer
#648
Quote: Originally Posted by Twin_Moose View Post

Follow up to Petro's post yesterday

Liberals, Trudeau hit new low but poll suggests surging Tory support is soft




POOR STUPID LIE-berals!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Jerry Diaz and his UNIFOR HOGS - who happen to represent THOUSANDS of unionized Cdn journalists..........................


are part of the team handing out that six hundred million dollar SLUSH FUND LIE-berals created to give to.................................


"JOURNALISTS THEY TRUST"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!



LIE-berals are trying to BUY OUR ELECTION with this biased and BIGOTED BRIBERY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


In the last election CBC............................................... .....


our Communist Broadcasting Corp, WAS CAUGHT............................................ ..


using a DELIBERATELY BIASED VERSION of "fair use policy" .........................................


to DELIBERATELY KEEP anti LIE-beral opinion OFF CBC news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


DELIBERATE CBC CENSORSHIP in favour of LIE-berals!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!



And of course the CBC position had NOTHING TO DO with maintaining the CBC budget.............................


did it???????????????????????????


And now we have a deluge of LIE-beral FAKE NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Brought to us by the same people who now have OUR $600 million dollar LIE-beral media SLUSH FUND IN THEIR POCKETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


This is how democracy DIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
Hoid
-1
#649
Who got more bail out money?

The oil industry. Just like always.
 
spilledthebeer
#650
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

Who got more bail out money?

The oil industry. Just like always.




WHO IS DESTROYING the oil industry???????????????????????????


AND TELLING US IT IS FOR OUR BENEFIT?????????????????????????????????


It is Fake News purveyors like hemer-HOID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!



And who is grossly miss-representing the Cdn tax regime for personal benefit????????????????????????


It is LIE-berals as USUAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Twin_Moose
Conservative
+2
#651
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

Who got more bail out money?
The oil industry. Just like always.

I would say Bombardier and Air Canada has got the most wouldn't you?
 
Colpy
Conservative
+1
#652
Latest polls and projections

Updated on June 18, 2019 at 10:24am ET

Poll averages




CON
35.3%
down-0.7


LIB
29.9%
up+0.1


NDP
14.0%
down-1.1


GRN
11.6%
up+0.9


BQ
4.4%
up+0.1


PPC
2.8%
up+0.3


OTH
2.0%
up+0.5



Seat projections







CON 160
116-205

LIB 129
80-195

NDP 23
3-45

BQ 20
5-35

GRN 5
4-15

OTH 1
0-1

PPC0
01



Probability of winning

32% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

33% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

21% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority

15% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
Last edited by Colpy; 4 weeks ago at 11:14 AM..
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
+3
#653
Quote: Originally Posted by Colpy View Post

Latest polls and projections

Updated on June 18, 2019 at 10:24am ET

Poll averages




CON
35.3%
down-0.7


LIB
29.9%
up+0.1


NDP
14.0%
down-1.1


GRN
11.6%
up+0.9


BQ
4.4%
up+0.1


PPC
2.8%
up+0.3


OTH
2.0%
up+0.5



Seat projections







CON 160
116-205

LIB 129
80-195

NDP 23
3-45

BQ 20
5-35

GRN 5
4-15

OTH 1
0-1

PPC0
01



Probability of winning

32% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

33% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

21% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority

15% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority


I would have bet the chances of the Liberals winning in any capacity with Justin as P.M. would be ZERO! Something is wrong!
 
spilledthebeer
+1
#654
Quote: Originally Posted by Twin_Moose View Post

I would say Bombardier and Air Canada has got the most wouldn't you?




HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


GOOD POINT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Not only did Bombardier get a billion dollars in a single year from Our idiot Boy Justin.......................................


They also got MILLIONS MORE to screw around............................................ .


with the Toronto Transit Commission purchase of streetcars...........................


it is BAD that the contract is several YEARS BEHIND schedule...............................


BUT IT IS EVEN WORSE.......................................


that the streetcars they did deliver.........................................


HAVE TO GO BACK AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


To have FAULTY FRAME WELD CORRECTED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


And of course we ought to count the MILLIONS MORE that Our idiot Boy gave to TTC....................................


so they could keep their ramshackle old fleet of street cars.............................................. ........


on the road for a few more years............................................. .................


while they waited for the HOGS at Bombardier to actually build something!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!
 
Walter
#655
Bigger!,!!!!!,!!!!!!!!!!!,!!!!!,!font?.?.????.?.?. ?.?.?..?.?..?.?.more,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,credulity !,!!!!!!!!!!,!!!,!!!!!!!
 
Dixie Cup
Conservative
+5
#656
Unfortunately, one cannot rely on polls as I believe that (some) people lie about who they vote for when asked as they feel it's no ones business. That likely is what happened in 2016 in the US. Would you tell a pollster who you were voting for? I don't know that I would - maybe, maybe not. I've never been asked and I would have to think about it before I did.
 
spilledthebeer
#657
Quote: Originally Posted by Walter View Post

Bigger!,!!!!!,!!!!!!!!!!!,!!!!!,!font?.?.????.?.?. ?.?.?..?.?..?.?.more,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,credulity !,!!!!!!!!!!,!!!,!!!!!!!






I LIKE MY BIG FONT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !


And my credibility is SOUND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LIE-berals KNOW THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!


Which is WHY they whine about punctuation and font.............................................


INSTEAD of discussing serious issues!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!


Such as..............................................


I HAVE ASKED HOW it benefits Canada to allow a CONVICTED DRUG DEALER.......................................


like Anthony Dooley........................................


and his common law wife Marcia Dooley - the WELFARE CHEAT.......................



to come to Canada and make COSTLY REFUGEE CLAIMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!


Along the way.....................................


the NOT SO LOVING PARENTS BEAT 9 year old SON RANDAL TO DEATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


So we now have MILLIONS OF DOLLARS in murder trial costs PLUS the cost of jailing the two asshats for 25 years............................


THEN WE GET TO PAY TO DEPORT THEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


AND NO LIE-beral has yet to explain WHY we would want a convicted drug dealer and his welfare cheat wife IN Canada at all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
spaminator
#658
LILLEY: Trudeau pops in latest poll but bottom could be falling out
Brian Lilley
Published:
July 2, 2019
Updated:
July 2, 2019 5:00 AM EDT
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves while walking to a news conference about the government's decision on the Trans Mountain Expansion Project in Ottawa, June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Wattie
You could call it the Ford Factor, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are back in the lead in vote-rich Ontario and the provincial government led by Doug Ford is part of the reason why.
The latest numbers from the DART/MARU Voice of Canada poll surveyed 1,512 adult Canadians on June 26 as part of Maru’s online panel. The numbers show a federal race that is up for grabs with Ontario being the big prize.
Yet despite improved numbers in the most populous province in the country, Trudeau and his Liberals suffer from poor numbers elsewhere, specifically on whether Canadians think he and his government deserve to be re-elected.
That is a key figure.
So, nationally the Conservatives sit at 37% support which is up three points from a poll on June 6. Trudeau’s Liberals have 32% nationally, up eight points while Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is at 17% support, up four points from earlier this month.
Most of Trudeau’s bounce upwards has come in Ontario where his party now leads the Conservatives 40% to 34%.
Pollster John Wright links the drop in support for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives in Ontario, and Trudeau’s rise, to what he calls “a withering ad blitz” aimed at the region that tries to link Ford and Scheer.
The ads, some of which go way over the top in their false claims about Scheer and Ford, have been running non-stop in the Toronto area on radio and TV.
“The gateway to either a minority or majority government likely rests in a band of
voters that sits like a donut around the Greater Toronto Area known well as the ‘905’ area
code,” Wright said.
“This group of voters has shown no firm allegiance to any party, oscillating between the
Liberals and the Conservatives both federally and provincially.”
That doesn’t mean that Trudeau and his team can start popping bottles of Niagara sparkling wine any time soon.
Beyond the fact that the election day is still months away — on Oct. 21 — and that campaigns matter, Trudeau faces the problem of a lack of voter enthusiasm.
Across the country, just 24% agreed with the statement that “the Liberals under Justin Trudeau have done a good job and deserve to be re-elected.”
Even in Ontario, where 40% say they would cast a ballot for the Liberals, just 29% say Trudeau and his team deserve re-election.
According to Wright, who has more than 30 years experience in polling, the “deserve to be re-elected” question is one of the most important and predictive.
“Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne was showing 28% of the decided vote but 19% with the same deserve to be re-elected question six months before she got exactly 19% at the ballot box,” Wright said.
The Liberals won 80 seats last time out. Unless things change, they will lose several of those seats, perhaps many.
In the rest of the country, things don’t look good for Trudeau.
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are set to give most of their seats to the Conservatives. In Alberta, 66% say they will vote Tory Blue, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba it is 50%.
British Columbia has the Conservatives leading the Liberals 37% to 34% which means the Liberals would lose some seats they gained in 2015. The two main parties are effectively tied in Quebec with the Liberals at 30% and Conservatives at 29%. If that holds until election day, that means big losses for Trudeau and big gains for Scheer.
The only place Liberals still hold a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada but the party is unlikely to take every seat like they did last time.
LILLEY: Best-selling author turns Twitter troll against politician’s kid
LILLEY: Carbon tax ruled constitutional in split and muddied decision
LILLEY: Trudeau plays politics with terrorism again
After the 2015 election, I stated boldly that Trudeau would get two terms as PM. Now, that is looking unlikely.
I wouldn’t write him or the Liberals off at this point but the diagnosis isn’t good.
The survey was conducted with randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of MARU/Blue’s Online panel and considered accurate to within 2.9%.
http://torontosun.com/news/national/...be-falling-out
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
+1
#659
Quote: Originally Posted by Dixie Cup View Post

Unfortunately, one cannot rely on polls as I believe that (some) people lie about who they vote for when asked as they feel it's no ones business. That likely is what happened in 2016 in the US. Would you tell a pollster who you were voting for? I don't know that I would - maybe, maybe not. I've never been asked and I would have to think about it before I did.

It's all in WHO and WHAT you ask...I don't think the people lie.

The pollsters and politicians do though. The exit poles have also been major indicators of voter fraud in the past.

MY assessment was that trudeau would be out because of scandal after one term, but the damage to Canada would be done.

Next: My guess is, we will get a financial depression beyond anything ever seen before, and a CONSERVATIVE government of attrition like we have never experienced before. The Liebarrels think they will get elected again after blaming the conservatives for the resulting CARNAGE after all the conservatives have mulrooneied themselves to permanent bases in Antarctica for the next couple of eons.

If you will look at the TSX, look at the high in May ( 16669 - Davinci 's golden ratio, which is a FLAG, is THE major secret society number ) and at the slide down since then. Soros and all his fellow vultures ( like the real guy behind "the big short") are now selling Canada short massively
( This Climate/ immigration/ freetrade/ thing is their business model), and next, we will look like Argentina or Venezuela or even eastern Germany under the secret society banker funded trained and directed Bolsheviks.

TSX:
https://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?q...^TSX&locale=en

The whole financial /political game is rigged.
Last edited by Danbones; 2 weeks ago at 06:28 AM..
 
spilledthebeer
#660
Quote: Originally Posted by spaminator View Post

LILLEY: Trudeau pops in latest poll but bottom could be falling out
Brian Lilley
Published:
July 2, 2019
Updated:
July 2, 2019 5:00 AM EDT
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves while walking to a news conference about the government's decision on the Trans Mountain Expansion Project in Ottawa, June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Wattie
You could call it the Ford Factor, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are back in the lead in vote-rich Ontario and the provincial government led by Doug Ford is part of the reason why.
The latest numbers from the DART/MARU Voice of Canada poll surveyed 1,512 adult Canadians on June 26 as part of Maru’s online panel. The numbers show a federal race that is up for grabs with Ontario being the big prize.
Yet despite improved numbers in the most populous province in the country, Trudeau and his Liberals suffer from poor numbers elsewhere, specifically on whether Canadians think he and his government deserve to be re-elected.
That is a key figure.
So, nationally the Conservatives sit at 37% support which is up three points from a poll on June 6. Trudeau’s Liberals have 32% nationally, up eight points while Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is at 17% support, up four points from earlier this month.
Most of Trudeau’s bounce upwards has come in Ontario where his party now leads the Conservatives 40% to 34%.
Pollster John Wright links the drop in support for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives in Ontario, and Trudeau’s rise, to what he calls “a withering ad blitz” aimed at the region that tries to link Ford and Scheer.
The ads, some of which go way over the top in their false claims about Scheer and Ford, have been running non-stop in the Toronto area on radio and TV.
“The gateway to either a minority or majority government likely rests in a band of
voters that sits like a donut around the Greater Toronto Area known well as the ‘905’ area
code,” Wright said.
“This group of voters has shown no firm allegiance to any party, oscillating between the
Liberals and the Conservatives both federally and provincially.”
That doesn’t mean that Trudeau and his team can start popping bottles of Niagara sparkling wine any time soon.
Beyond the fact that the election day is still months away — on Oct. 21 — and that campaigns matter, Trudeau faces the problem of a lack of voter enthusiasm.
Across the country, just 24% agreed with the statement that “the Liberals under Justin Trudeau have done a good job and deserve to be re-elected.”
Even in Ontario, where 40% say they would cast a ballot for the Liberals, just 29% say Trudeau and his team deserve re-election.
According to Wright, who has more than 30 years experience in polling, the “deserve to be re-elected” question is one of the most important and predictive.
“Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne was showing 28% of the decided vote but 19% with the same deserve to be re-elected question six months before she got exactly 19% at the ballot box,” Wright said.
The Liberals won 80 seats last time out. Unless things change, they will lose several of those seats, perhaps many.
In the rest of the country, things don’t look good for Trudeau.
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are set to give most of their seats to the Conservatives. In Alberta, 66% say they will vote Tory Blue, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba it is 50%.
British Columbia has the Conservatives leading the Liberals 37% to 34% which means the Liberals would lose some seats they gained in 2015. The two main parties are effectively tied in Quebec with the Liberals at 30% and Conservatives at 29%. If that holds until election day, that means big losses for Trudeau and big gains for Scheer.
The only place Liberals still hold a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada but the party is unlikely to take every seat like they did last time.
LILLEY: Best-selling author turns Twitter troll against politician’s kid
LILLEY: Carbon tax ruled constitutional in split and muddied decision
LILLEY: Trudeau plays politics with terrorism again
After the 2015 election, I stated boldly that Trudeau would get two terms as PM. Now, that is looking unlikely.
I wouldn’t write him or the Liberals off at this point but the diagnosis isn’t good.
The survey was conducted with randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of MARU/Blue’s Online panel and considered accurate to within 2.9%.
http://torontosun.com/news/national/...be-falling-out


Ah yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


The members of MARU/Blue`s "Online Panel" have decreed that Our idiot Boy has not yet lost his political career!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


HOW NICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !


AND JUST WHO IS ON THE PANEL????????????????????????????????????


HOW DID THEY GET APPOINTED???????????????????????????????



Maru/Blue was formerly Angus Reid and has been restructured...................................... ..


Maru makes note on its web site of HOW MUCH MONEY YOU CAN EARN by participating in PAID SURVEYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Should we ASK if it is easier to get on those paid surveys if you tell Maru spokespeople WHAT THEY WANT TO HEAR????????


Meaning THEY MAT SEEK OUT NICE COMMENTS ABOUT LIE-berals- and MAY PAY FOR SUCH AS WELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



And shall we ask along the way if the amount of personal information Maru collects when you sign up .................................


WOULD AID THEM IN WEEDING OUT those who are HOSTILE TO LIE-berals?????????????????????????????????


Are we seeing yet ANOTHER INCARNATION of that six hundred million dollar LIE-beral SLUSH FUND that is being offered to Cdn



news media that LIE-berals "TRUST"??????????????????????????????????????????? ?


How much FAKE NEWS WILL LIE-berals SPEW????????????????????????????????


if they think they can get away with it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!


One has only to look at the VILE and SLEAZY Sheer Weakness ads put up by our civil service union HOGS - which CLAIM that Ford



has cut billions from Ontari-owe health care!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LIE-berals and their HOG ALLIES want us to believe the world will end if Ford freezes HOG WAGES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


HOGS are claiming we will DIE ALONE AND IN PAIN if the gravy train loses a single seat................................



And HOGS are claiming that SCHEER will make billions MORE IN IMAGINARY CUTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Cdns can NO LONGER BELIEVE ANYTHING that Cdn polling companies, spin doctors, "trusted Cdn news media" , LIE-beral



spokespeople or their HOG ALLIES CLAIM might be "good for us"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



LIE-berals are FOCUSED on "GOOD FOR THEM" ONLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!
 

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