Canada's Federal Election Polls


Ron in Regina
Free Thinker
#211
Quote: Originally Posted by Liberalman View Post

April 28

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 28th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1021). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).

Canada (n=1048 committed voters)
Conservative 38.0% (+1.6)
NDP 29.6% (-1.6)
Liberal 23.3% (+1.3)
Bloc Quebecois 5.2% (-0.5)
Green 3.1% (-0.9)

*Undecided 12.7% (-2.3)


Well.....if there is a coalition at this point, based on these numbers, ignoring Iggy's
latest claims against that position, & assuming the previous document regarding
an agreement between the Liberals & the NDP doesn't (and hasn't) expired
until (I believe) June of 2011....the Bloc becomes irrelevant as a silent partner
having to be purchased at every step to keep the above coalition from imploding.

Interesting. With Layton as the Captain of the boat, & Iggy giving the Yes or No on
his policies, leaving both the Conservatives & the Bloc on the sidelines until some
hissy-fit erupts between the coalition members.

The 12.7% Undecided muddies the waters, but who would'a believed this even
just a few weeks ago?
 
PoliticalNick
Free Thinker
#212
Quote: Originally Posted by Liberalman View Post

April 28

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 28th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1021). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).

Canada (n=1048 committed voters)
Conservative 38.0% (+1.6)
NDP 29.6% (-1.6)
Liberal 23.3% (+1.3)
Bloc Quebecois 5.2% (-0.5)
Green 3.1% (-0.9)

*Undecided 12.7% (-2.3)

Wow, can you believe Harpo is running around claiming a mandate from the people with less than 40% of the vote. that means 60%+ don't want him to run the country. Not much of a mandate in my opinion.
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
#213
Quote: Originally Posted by PoliticalNick View Post

Wow, can you believe Harpo is running around claiming a mandate from the people with less than 40% of the vote. that means 60%+ don't want him to run the country. Not much of a mandate in my opinion.

\

No that doesn't mean 60% DON'T want him running the country, it simply means a maximum of 60% would choose him as second choice.
 
cranky
#214
The majority gov of the Cretien years wasn't exactly a majority too.

My point? Quit your whining or do something about it.
 
Liberalman
Free Thinker
#215
April 29

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 29th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1048. *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).

Canada (n=1068 committed voters)
Conservative 37.0% (-1.0)
NDP 30.6% (+1.0)
Liberal 22.7% (-0.6)
Bloc Quebecois 5.5% (+0.3)
Green 3.2% (+0.1)

*Undecided 11.0% (-1.7)

This is not the last release of the CTV/Globe/Nanos election tracking. This morning's numbers are based on the three day rolling average completed Saturday evening. We are polling on Sunday with a sample double our usual size (800) and will release the stats from the calling on CTV News and also The Globe and Mail website on Sunday evening.

To be transparent we will also report the national individual day's numbers so that Canadians can see the day to day numbers for the last three days of tracking leading up to election day.

The Conservative advantage over the NDP in the three day rolling average has diminished from eight to six points. Please note that we have seen a tightening of the race looking at the one day Saturday numbers but will need to wait to see what the results are for Sunday.

Conservative support nationally is 37.0% followed by the NDP at 30.6%, the Liberals at 22.7%, the BQ at 5.5% and the Greens at 3.2%.

The campaign is now featuring a possible tightening of the races in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and British Columbia.

Factoring the margin of error for the regional sub-sample, a three way statistical tie exists in Atlantic Canada with the Liberals at 34.4%, the Conservatives at 32.9%, and the NDP at 29.1%. Support for the Greens is at 3.6% in Atlantic Canada.

The NDP still enjoy a comfortable lead in Quebec with 37.4% support followed by the BQ at 23.9%, the Liberals at 18.1%, the Conservatives at 16.7% and the Greens at 1.3%.

In Ontario, the Tories are at 36.2%, followed by the Liberals at 31.1%, the NDP at 27.4%, and the Green Party at 4.4%.

The Conservatives have a substantial lead in the Prairies with 60.5% support followed by the NDP at 25.0%, the Liberals at 12.9% and the Green Party at 1.7%.

In BC the Tories have 41.2% followed by the NDP at 34.9%, the Grits at 17.9% and the Greens at 5.7%

A look at the Nanos Leadership Index, which is a one day snapshot of the perceptions of the leaders indicates that Saturday, Jack Layton's scores significantly improved and surpassed Stephen Harper's. Layton scored 97 points (up 17 points) on the one day index compared to 88 for Stephen Harper and 39 points for Michael Ignatieff. Yesterday Layton had an advantage over Harper outside of the margin of error of the research on trust and vision for Canada while Harper maintained an advantage on competence.

Party platform remains the top vote driver at 47.3% of Canadians while the importance of party leader is trending up to 26.5%.

Healthcare is the top issue at 31.2% with about a seven point advantage over jobs/the economy which stands at 24.6%.
 
Omicron
#216
Quote: Originally Posted by cranky View Post

The majority gov of the Cretien years wasn't exactly a majority too.

Amazing how fast people forget that at the time, it was the right bemoaning vote-splitting between the PCs and Reform Party.
 
damngrumpy
No Party Affiliation
#217
As the parties get closer together in popularity as the campaign ends today it is a lot
tighter than most people expected from a polling standpoint. The Conservatives and
the NDP are about 3 points apart give or take a percentage point. The Liberals are
at or about 22%. There is no majority here for anyone. The biggest factor now is to
get that vote out to a polling station. You can have a ten point lead but if people don't
come out to vote it is meaningless. I think the vote will favour the Conservatives
with the NDP taking about a hundred to a hundred and ten seats. The Conservatives
around a 130 to 135, the rest are Liberals and a few Bloc members for good measure
it will be a very different House when this thing ends.
 
mentalfloss
#218
I'm gonna have to disagree grump. NDP will be the best 'second place' vote this country has ever had. Which will unfortunately be meaningless when they get beaten by the Conservatives or the odd Liberal in most of the ridings.

They'll get a few boosts from Quebec though.
 
Omicron
#219
Quote: Originally Posted by damngrumpy View Post

it will be a very different House when this thing ends.

It's so much more lively and invigorating to have Quebec back in federal politics on an effective level.
 
#juan
No Party Affiliation
#220
Quote: Originally Posted by Colpy View Post

Well, if no majority....then it might be Leader of the Opposition.

Although that seems less a possibility........I don't think even the Count is stupid enough to support Jack as PM (shudder)

I can't imagine Jack as PM in an alliance with the Count and Gilles.

If you think about this for a second or two, you would see that if the NDP and the Liberals joined forces to form a coalition,
they wouldn't need Gilles. In this particular clu-ter-uck Giles is unimportant.
 

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