Ontarians will pay dearly for Doug Ford's platform


mentalfloss
#1
More than the NDP and Liberals combined.


Ontarians will pay a steep price if Doug Ford keeps his budget promises

Ontarians watched with fascination as provincial Progressive Conservatives demonstrated their proficiency at counting leadership ballots. Now, voters are waiting to see if the PCs are any better at counting billions of dollars in their fiscal platform.

Indeed, Doug Ford’s most pressing policy task is to present a convincing fiscal plan for the imminent election. He needs a budget true to his aw-shucks conservative populism – but also one that adds up at the bottom. This will not be easy.

Mr. Ford says he’ll ditch Patrick Brown’s People’s Guarantee, which carefully costed out the first three years of Conservative budgets. Mr. Brown’s platform was surprisingly centrist: hoping to convince voters that a PC government would be moderate and caring. But as soon as Mr. Ford threw his hat in the ring, he started jettisoning key planks – starting with the proposed carbon tax (meant to raise $10-billion over those three years).

Mr. Ford’s platform will have neither cap and trade nor a carbon tax. That throws climate policy into confused limbo, and leaves Ontario out of step with other jurisdictions (including neighbouring Manitoba, where a conservative government is using carbon revenue to cut income taxes). More troublesome for Mr. Ford is the $10-billion hole it leaves in the PC fiscal plan.

Other planks of the People’s Guarantee will likely survive under Mr. Ford. For example, he spoke positively of the promise to save $6-billion over three years through unidentified efficiency gains. This fiscal trick has been tried by many campaigning politicians, but never works; implementing austerity on that scale is actually much harder than just finding “a few cents on the dollar.” Mr. Ford will move ahead with the private-sector energy cuts ($1.9-billion a year) implied by cancelling cap and trade. He will also maintain $10-billion in income and GST cuts promised in the People’s Guarantee – and possibly go further (like axing the foreign-buyer real estate tax).

The People’s Guarantee pledged to balance the provincial budget by 2020, and then run a small surplus. With no carbon tax, and no concrete plan for “efficiency” savings, how will Mr. Ford square that same circle?

Arithmetically, he has three options: increase taxes; tolerate a deficit; or cut spending. At door one, Mr. Ford could seek other sources of tax revenue. That’s a non-starter, given his rhetoric about long-suffering taxpayers. Door two is to tolerate deficits, converting lost carbon-tax revenue and the likely failure of the efficiency audit into higher debt. That also clashes painfully with Mr. Ford’s pledge to wrestle the debt to the ground.

Almost certainly, Mr. Ford will choose door number three: still-deeper cuts in provincial spending. He needs $10-billion in cuts over three years to offset carbon tax revenue; $6-billion more to meet the efficiency target; and still more to pay for any additional tax cut promises. All that’s on top of $1.9-billion in annual spending cuts from cancelling cap and trade. All told, he will need to cut spending by close to $25-billion over three years – and around $10-billion in the third year alone. Cuts of this magnitude would significantly damage government services (all the more so given continual inflation and population growth).

Ten billion dollars a year is a major chunk of purchasing power: more than 1 per cent of provincial GDP. We don’t know, of course, the precise composition of the cuts, but they would inevitably include a combination of direct staff and program delivery, income-support programs, and private-sector activity (including the cancelled cap-and-trade projects). And that’s just the direct first-order impact. Cuts this big would also spill into consumer spending and other forms of aggregate demand.

Moreover, reducing provincial spending by more than 1 per cent of GDP cannot but have a parallel impact on provincial labour markets. It is reasonable to expect job losses (both direct with government, and indirect via private-sector actors also affected by the austerity) to total at least 1 per cent of Ontario employment: or around 75,000 lost jobs. That estimate is conservative: since government services are relatively labour-intensive, the final impact on employment would likely be proportionately greater than the impact on GDP. In 2014, then-PC leader Tim Hudak pledged to cut 100,000 jobs in a war on the deficit, and went down in flames. Let’s see if Mr. Ford’s tough love fares any better at the ballot box.

Mr. Ford won the leadership by stoking populist resentment against government, taxes, sex-ed and environmentalism. That mobilized enough grassroots party support to put him over the top. Completing a similar journey from centrism to austerity in a provincial budget, however, will be much harder. And many Ontarians will pay a steep price for the trip.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opin...ps-his-budget/
Last edited by mentalfloss; Mar 19th, 2018 at 05:38 AM..
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
+2
#2
...and that differs how from ontario's position as one of the the biggest debtors in one of the biggest debtor countries on the planet because of you commienaziglobalists?

How's trudies dope dealing working out?
 
mentalfloss
#3
No GDP growth leads to recession, just like the one Harper gave us.
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#4
What is Ontario's annual government expenses?
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
+1
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

What is Ontario's annual government expenses?

How many zeroes before the decimal point can you fit on a page?
 
taxslave
Free Thinker
+4
#6  Top Rated Post
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post

More than the NDP and Liberals combined.


Ontarians will pay a steep price if Doug Ford keeps his budget promises

Ontarians watched with fascination as provincial Progressive Conservatives demonstrated their proficiency at counting leadership ballots. Now, voters are waiting to see if the PCs are any better at counting billions of dollars in their fiscal platform.

Indeed, Doug Ford’s most pressing policy task is to present a convincing fiscal plan for the imminent election. He needs a budget true to his aw-shucks conservative populism – but also one that adds up at the bottom. This will not be easy.

Mr. Ford says he’ll ditch Patrick Brown’s People’s Guarantee, which carefully costed out the first three years of Conservative budgets. Mr. Brown’s platform was surprisingly centrist: hoping to convince voters that a PC government would be moderate and caring. But as soon as Mr. Ford threw his hat in the ring, he started jettisoning key planks – starting with the proposed carbon tax (meant to raise $10-billion over those three years).

Mr. Ford’s platform will have neither cap and trade nor a carbon tax. That throws climate policy into confused limbo, and leaves Ontario out of step with other jurisdictions (including neighbouring Manitoba, where a conservative government is using carbon revenue to cut income taxes). More troublesome for Mr. Ford is the $10-billion hole it leaves in the PC fiscal plan.

Other planks of the People’s Guarantee will likely survive under Mr. Ford. For example, he spoke positively of the promise to save $6-billion over three years through unidentified efficiency gains. This fiscal trick has been tried by many campaigning politicians, but never works; implementing austerity on that scale is actually much harder than just finding “a few cents on the dollar.” Mr. Ford will move ahead with the private-sector energy cuts ($1.9-billion a year) implied by cancelling cap and trade. He will also maintain $10-billion in income and GST cuts promised in the People’s Guarantee – and possibly go further (like axing the foreign-buyer real estate tax).

The People’s Guarantee pledged to balance the provincial budget by 2020, and then run a small surplus. With no carbon tax, and no concrete plan for “efficiency” savings, how will Mr. Ford square that same circle?

Arithmetically, he has three options: increase taxes; tolerate a deficit; or cut spending. At door one, Mr. Ford could seek other sources of tax revenue. That’s a non-starter, given his rhetoric about long-suffering taxpayers. Door two is to tolerate deficits, converting lost carbon-tax revenue and the likely failure of the efficiency audit into higher debt. That also clashes painfully with Mr. Ford’s pledge to wrestle the debt to the ground.

Almost certainly, Mr. Ford will choose door number three: still-deeper cuts in provincial spending. He needs $10-billion in cuts over three years to offset carbon tax revenue; $6-billion more to meet the efficiency target; and still more to pay for any additional tax cut promises. All that’s on top of $1.9-billion in annual spending cuts from cancelling cap and trade. All told, he will need to cut spending by close to $25-billion over three years – and around $10-billion in the third year alone. Cuts of this magnitude would significantly damage government services (all the more so given continual inflation and population growth).

Ten billion dollars a year is a major chunk of purchasing power: more than 1 per cent of provincial GDP. We don’t know, of course, the precise composition of the cuts, but they would inevitably include a combination of direct staff and program delivery, income-support programs, and private-sector activity (including the cancelled cap-and-trade projects). And that’s just the direct first-order impact. Cuts this big would also spill into consumer spending and other forms of aggregate demand.

Moreover, reducing provincial spending by more than 1 per cent of GDP cannot but have a parallel impact on provincial labour markets. It is reasonable to expect job losses (both direct with government, and indirect via private-sector actors also affected by the austerity) to total at least 1 per cent of Ontario employment: or around 75,000 lost jobs. That estimate is conservative: since government services are relatively labour-intensive, the final impact on employment would likely be proportionately greater than the impact on GDP. In 2014, then-PC leader Tim Hudak pledged to cut 100,000 jobs in a war on the deficit, and went down in flames. Let’s see if Mr. Ford’s tough love fares any better at the ballot box.

Mr. Ford won the leadership by stoking populist resentment against government, taxes, sex-ed and environmentalism. That mobilized enough grassroots party support to put him over the top. Completing a similar journey from centrism to austerity in a provincial budget, however, will be much harder. And many Ontarians will pay a steep price for the trip.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opin...ps-his-budget/

Of course lower taxes and lower unemployment is always bad for the taxpayers. First thing they teach in leftard school.
 
Danbones
Free Thinker
+4
#7
Raising taxes is good for them because everyone knows taxpayers balance themselves


 
mentalfloss
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by taxslave View Post

Of course lower taxes and lower unemployment is always bad for the taxpayers. First thing they teach in leftard school.

taxslave loves taxes

Quote: Originally Posted by Danbones View Post

Raising taxes is good for them because everyone knows taxpayers balance themselves


If they aren't conbots who cheat on their taxes or work with cash.
 
Jinentonix
No Party Affiliation
+1
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post

No GDP growth leads to recession, just like the one Harper gave us.

Wow, that Harper guy must have been one powerful dude for him to cause an entire global recession.
You sound like the Wynned Bag. After 10 years of liberal incompetence under McNugget she was still blaming Harper for Ontario's woes.

Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post

taxslave loves taxes



If they aren't conbots who cheat on their taxes or work with cash.

If you weren't so stupid, you'd almost be funny.
 
mentalfloss
#10
I don't even have to explain why your post about the recession was idiotic.

And quit defending tax evasion.

People like you are the reason why any given economy struggles.
 
Cannuck
No Party Affiliation
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

What is Ontario's annual government expenses?

Well?
 
Gilgamesh
+1
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post

No GDP growth leads to recession, just like the one Harper gave us.

Yes indeed, Harper was the cause of the worst world wide recession since 1929.



May I please buy some of your drugs please?
 
mentalfloss
#13
You do realize the recession he gave us was entirely his fault and had nothing to do with 2008, right?

When Conservatives were a minority, they actually invested into the economy to keep our GDP up. When they became a majority they went into austerity mode which killed all of our economic growth.

That's what caused our technical recession in 2015.
 
petros
#14
Really?
 
mentalfloss
#15
That and the oil subsidies.
 
petros
#16
What subsidies?

Snuffaluffagus said there are subsidies?
 
DaSleeper
#17
Who?
Everyone in ontario gets subsidies at tax time ......paid out of pocket prescriptions get you a tax break through the trillium program!
or is that a subsidy?
Firemen get a tax exemption which some would call a subsidy

 
Hoid
+1
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by mentalfloss View Post

You do realize the recession he gave us was entirely his fault and had nothing to do with 2008, right?

When Conservatives were a minority, they actually invested into the economy to keep our GDP up. When they became a majority they went into austerity mode which killed all of our economic growth.

That's what caused our technical recession in 2015.

but it resulted in the end of the Harper Petrogov
 
mentalfloss
#19
Yea the petros dollar was killing us.
 
mentalfloss
#20
Ontario’s deficit leaves Doug Ford’s PCs at a disadvantage

So here’s something fun to think about, as the dust settles after this weekend’s botched Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership convention. As Doug Ford settles in as the party’s newly appointed (barely, but still) leader, thanks to an announcement late last week by the provincial Liberal government, Ford and the Ontario PCs are already behind.

Not in the polls. Those have been consistent in showing the PCs with a strong lead over the Liberals — remarkably consistent, in fact, given the disastrous not-quite-two-months the party has endured. The PCs, and the province as a whole, are literally starting behind in terms of money. And money matters.

Late last week, Finance Minister Charles Sousa announced that the Liberals would be running a deficit in the budget they will bring forward later this month. It’s a small deficit, the Liberals tell us, less than one per cent of the province’s annual GDP. But, uh, Ontario has a big GDP — now over $800 billion. So less than a per cent of $800 billion is, hmm, let’s see, divide that over that, carry the zero, round up to the nearest — ah ha! It’s as much as $8 billion. That’s a lot of money – especially compared to the size of the budget, instead of the whole economy. The budget for 2017 called for spending of $141 billion. The next budget will be bigger, of course, but $8 billion out of $140-ish billion is a difference of roughly five per cent. That’s a big gap to cover with spending cuts or tax hikes.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4077724/m...io-pc-deficit/
 
mentalfloss
#21
Doug Ford offers slogans, but no plan for Ontario

Moderate conservatives, including the so-called Red Tories who have traditionally been a major part of the Ontario PC coalition, now have a big choice to make.

They will soon have to decide whether their distaste for Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals is so great that they’re willing to hand a blank cheque to a man whose main calling card is a simplistic rage against the out-of-touch “elites” he blames for every problem.

Because the fact is we know very little about what Doug Ford would actually do as premier if the PCs manage to win the provincial election set for June 7.

Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess. He’s never bothered to spell out his position in any detail on the big issues facing Ontario, and his party has trashed the relatively centrist platform put together only four months ago under the gone (but not quite forgotten) Patrick Brown. Like Donald Trump, he makes a virtue out of ignorance about policy.

So all we have to go on is sloganeering and attitude. Some empty bromides about rooting out unidentified “waste” at Queen’s Park and “bringing prosperity back” to the province.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/edit...r-ontario.html
 
Gilgamesh
#22
You say Doug Ford offers no plans for Ontario.

Actually he does.
 
captain morgan
No Party Affiliation
+1
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by Gilgamesh View Post

You say Doug Ford offers no plans for Ontario.

Actually he does.

What Flossy means by 'a plan' relates more to a scheme to bilk the taxpayers of all their cash, raise taxes and hydro rates (among many others I'm sure) and set up a program of graft.

That's what Flossy means by 'a plan'
 
Hoid
#24
Ford has never been long on details.
 
captain morgan
No Party Affiliation
+1
#25
He doesn't have to be at this point.


... Just sit back, don't screw up and let Wynne self destruct
 
Jinentonix
No Party Affiliation
+1
#26
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

Ford has never been long on details.

Really. So you know Doug Ford or something? Or is that simply your personal opinion based entirely on your political stance?
 
mentalfloss
#27
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

Ford has never been long on details.

Quote: Originally Posted by captain morgan View Post

He doesn't have to be at this point.


Ah, good old fashioned ignorance.

The hallmark of the Trumptard.
 
Hoid
#28
I have to admit I don't know much about him but I know his subway plan is hilarious.

I hope he talks about it during the campaign.

Oh, and his brother was a crack head.

Everybody knows that.
 
mentalfloss
#29
He also sold dope.

Dope Ford.
 
Hoid
#30
Probably a result of his addiction.