Ebola- Running wild


Goober
#1
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/he...T.nav=top-news

If the numbers go up, the govt, police, and other infrastructure they have will collapse.
People will head for the exits whatever way they can. And those scares we have had in NA will then become reality.

In the worst-case scenario, the two countries could have 21,000 total cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps spreading without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported.

In the best-case model, the epidemic in both countries would be “almost ended” by Jan. 20, the report said. Success would require safe funerals at which no one touches the bodies, and treating 70 percent of patients in settings that reduce the risk of transmission. The report said the proportion of patients now in such settings was about 18 percent in Liberia and 40 percent in Sierra Leone.

Bryan Lewis, an epidemiologist at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute at Virginia Tech, agreed that the estimates were reasonable, perhaps even a bit low compared with those generated by other models. He said that if some of the latest data from the World Health Organization is plugged into the C.D.C. model, “the very large numbers of estimated cases are, unfortunately, even larger.”

The current official case count is 5,843, including 2,803 deaths, according to the W.H.O.

The C.D.C.’s new projections do not include figures for Guinea,
one of the three hardest-hit countries, because case counts there have gone up and down in ways that cannot be reliably modeled.
 
Twila
#2
I'd read recently that one of the side effects of this ebola outbreak that has not caught alot of attention is that with this disease outbreak, travel restrictions, and public fear is that food is not being harvested which could lead to some other problems for the various countries involved.

It's becoming far more complicated then just a few deaths.

http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/242177/icode/
 
Goober
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by Twila View Post

I'd read recently that one of the side effects of this ebola outbreak that has not caught alot of attention is that with this disease outbreak, travel restrictions, and public fear is that food is not being harvested which could lead to some other problems for the various countries involved.

It's becoming far more complicated then just a few deaths.

More than a few deaths as the disease is spreading quickly. 3rd world countries, outbreak spreads, what civilization they have collapses.
 
Twila
#4
Quote: Originally Posted by Goober View Post

More than a few deaths as the disease is spreading quickly. 3rd world countries, outbreak spreads, what civilization they have collapses.

In the overall continental aspect of this outbreak, it is only a few deaths. Under 3000.
 
Retired_Can_Soldier
#5
CDC: Ebola cases could reach at least 550,000 by January



(CNN) -- The number of Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone could rise to between 550,000 and 1.4 million by January if there are no "additional interventions or changes in community behavior," the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report Tuesday. The estimate was derived from a new forecasting tool developed by the CDC.
The range of estimated cases -- from 550,000 to 1.4 million -- is wide because experts suspect the current count is highly under-reported. The official death toll from Ebola in West Africa has climbed to more than 2,800 in six months, with 5,800 cases confirmed as of Monday, the World Health Organization said.


But the CDC estimates that if 70% of people with Ebola are properly cared for in medical facilities, the epidemic could decrease and eventually end.In a press conference Tuesday, CDC Director Tom Frieden cautioned that this model is based on older data from August. The numbers are not projections, but "scenarios." The model does not take into account President Obama's announcement that the U.S. is sending troops and extra medical equipment to the area. Nor does it take into account the additional help from other countries promised.


read more
 
EagleSmack
+1
#6
Quote: Originally Posted by Twila View Post

I'd read recently that one of the side effects of this ebola outbreak that has not caught alot of attention is that with this disease outbreak, travel restrictions, and public fear is that food is not being harvested which could lead to some other problems for the various countries involved.


Where the outbreak is has a lot to do with the lack of attention IMO.
 
Twila
#7
Reminds me of the articles earlier in August stating there was nothing to worry about...

Quote: Originally Posted by EagleSmack View Post

Where the outbreak is has a lot to do with the lack of attention IMO.

I think you're right.
 
Goober
+1
#8
Quote: Originally Posted by Twila View Post

In the overall continental aspect of this outbreak, it is only a few deaths. Under 3000.

The official stats. Those that had the disease and recovered are shunned by everyone.
The official stats - anyone believe official stats from Africa?
Me I do not.
Many die and are not counted as dying from Ebola.
 
Nuggler
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by Goober View Post

The official stats. Those that had the disease and recovered are shunned by everyone.
The official stats - anyone believe official stats from Africa?
Me I do not.
Many die and are not counted as dying from Ebola.


So...........you think I might not get the two million from Nigeria ?
Dang!

In the interim, planes and people are still coming and going from and to Africa.
The incubation period of Ebola can be more than a few days.
Think ISIS might be watching ?
Might do more damage than suicide bombers.
Nah..........................
 
Twila
+1
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by Nuggler View Post

So...........you think I might not get the two million from Nigeria ?
Dang!

I received an email asking for my help because all the money had been left to a cat and they needed to get the cat and the money out of Africa.

Clearly they are evolving...
 
Goober
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Nuggler View Post

So...........you think I might not get the two million from Nigeria ?
Dang!

In the interim, planes and people are still coming and going from and to Africa.
The incubation period of Ebola can be more than a few days.
Think ISIS might be watching ?
Might do more damage than suicide bombers.
Nah..........................

Incubation is up to 21 days-
So how does anyone stop 100 k people heading for other countries. If this spreads, panic sets in, survival mode begins and increases the panic which then creates more panic.

Ebola Incubation Period
Ebola Incubation Period
The Ebola incubation period is the period between infection with the virus and the appearance of symptoms associated with the disease. The incubation period can be as short as 2 days or as long as 21 days. A person is still contagious during this time.
 
Tecumsehsbones
#12
Obama: Ebola is ‘growing threat to regional and global security’

By David Nakamura September 25

NEW YORK — President Obama warned a summit of world leaders Thursday that the Ebola outbreak that has infected thousands in west Africa has gone beyond a health crises and is a “growing threat to regional and global security.”

Citing new commitments from the United Nations last week, Obama said there had been progress. But after meeting with leaders from African nations at the U.N. General Assembly, the president cautioned that “we need to be honest with ourselves. It’s not enough.”

Obama: Ebola is ‘growing threat to regional and global security’ - The Washington Post

Uh-oh. Here come the bombers!
 
Goober
#13
1st Ebola case diagnosed in U.S. confirmed by CDC - Health - CBC News
A patient at a Texas hospital has the Ebola virus, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control says. The patient is the first case diagnosed in the U.S.
 
Twila
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by Goober View Post

1st Ebola case diagnosed in U.S. confirmed by CDC - Health - CBC News
A patient at a Texas hospital has the Ebola virus, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control says. The patient is the first case diagnosed in the U.S.

well...I hope they tell us how it/he got here with it.
 
Goober
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by Twila View Post

well...I hope they tell us how it/he got here with it.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/...ref=world&_r=0

(Reuters) - The United States is discussing the possible use of experimental drugs or blood plasma from a recovered Ebola patient as a potential treatment for a patient in Texas diagnosed with Ebola, a top health official said on Tuesday.

Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said it was the first confirmed case to be diagnosed in the United States.
 
BaalsTears
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by Twila View Post

well...I hope they tell us how it/he got here with it.

She got a free ride on Air Canada.
 
Goober
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by BaalsTears View Post

She got a free ride on Air Canada.

A he.
 
Tonington
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by Twila View Post

well...I hope they tell us how it/he got here with it.

They left Liberia with no symptoms on September 19th, symptoms developed by September 24th, sought treatment on September 26th, and was admitted to the hospital on the 28th.
 
Goober
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by Tonington View Post

They left Liberia with no symptoms on September 19th, symptoms developed by September 24th, sought treatment on September 26th, and was admitted to the hospital on the 28th.

So he was contagious.
 
damngrumpy
+1
#20
Ya and now Texas has the first case for America unchecked great eh?
As long as it was a problem somewhere else it was back burner and
bets there will be all kinds of action now
 
Twila
+1
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by Tonington View Post

They left Liberia with no symptoms on September 19th, symptoms developed by September 24th, sought treatment on September 26th, and was admitted to the hospital on the 28th.

that doesn't bode well. Have they got this person's entire route and a list of names of everyone they've talked to, everything they've touched from start to finish?

Can we put bubble wrap around Texas for awhile?
 
gopher
+3
#22  Top Rated Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Twila View Post

that doesn't bode well. Have they got this person's entire route and a list of names of everyone they've talked to, everything they've touched from start to finish?

Can we put bubble wrap around Texas for awhile?





It's time to use quarantine as in the old days.
 
Goober
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by gopher View Post

It's time to use quarantine as in the old days.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/us...T.nav=top-news

DALLAS — Health officials scrambled on Wednesday to find anyone who has had contact with a man who flew into Dallas from Liberia and was later found to be infected with the Ebola virus.

Although the man came to the United States about 10 days ago on a commercial airliner, officials said that he had shown no symptoms of the disease while on the flight and that he had posed no threat to other passengers.

Officials are focused on finding people who came into contact with the man after he began showing symptoms, on Sept. 24. As a patient becomes sicker and the virus replicates in the body, the likelihood of the disease spreading grows.

Dallas County officials said Wednesday that they believed the man had come into contact with 12 to 18 people when he was experiencing symptoms. So far, none has been confirmed infected. Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, speaking at a news conference, said that some school-age children had had contact with the patient and were being monitored.
 
coldstream
#24
We've had outbreaks of Ebola before. It's not an airborne virus that spreads like the Spanish Flu of 1918 (which killed between 50 and 100 million.. about 10% of those infected). That was exacerbated by the collapse of public health infrastructure in the aftermath of WW1.

It's spread by contact to bodily fluids and those infected have a relatively short infectious period. I think it'll be brought under control.. well before it reaches hundreds of thousands infected. In other words before it reaches pandemic proportions... where economies and communities collapse.
Last edited by coldstream; Oct 1st, 2014 at 12:51 PM..
 
Locutus
#25
orfay uckfay'say akesay, ogay easyyay onyay ethay ebolayay alktay. eythay'llay allcay youyay ayay earfay ongerermay eadingspray ethay aryscay acticstay.
 
CanPat
#26
Not Fear mongering, Fact: 1 Guy from Liberia, has exposed 2 Paramedics, and 5 children that attended 4 different schools. Ebola uses bodily fluids for transmission, and we all know how sanitary children are.

http://www.wfaa.com/story/news/healt...ases/16524303/
 
eh1eh
+3
#27
Ebola is an antibiotic for the human plague.
 
Goober
+1
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by eh1eh View Post

Ebola is an antibiotic for the human plague.

In the now non existent British Empire, British Officers in peacetime used to ask for war or disease.
Only way of moving up quickly.
 
SLM
+2
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by Goober View Post

In the now non existent British Empire, British Officers in peacetime used to ask for war or disease.
Only way of moving up quickly.

Uh oh, someone's going to get all huffy about that.

I don't want to name names though.
 
IdRatherBeSkiing
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by coldstream View Post

We've had outbreaks of Ebola before. It's not an airborne virus that spreads like the Spanish Flu of 1918 (which killed between 50 and 100 million.. about 10% of those infected). That was exacerbated by the collapse of public health infrastructure in the aftermath of WW1.

It's spread by contact to bodily fluids and those infected have a relatively short infectious period. I think it'll be brought under control.. well before it reaches hundreds of thousands infected. In other words before it reaches pandemic proportions... where economies and communities collapse.

Yes, the pandemic will be a much more efficient virus. Ebola in it's current form is not that.
 

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