British economy set to overtake Germany's as Europe's largest - due to Brexit


Blackleaf
#1
The public finances are on the mend, recording a healthy surplus in January on booming tax receipts. Employment is at record levels (32.6 million), with real wage growth at a two-year high. Despite a global slowdown, Britain expanded 1.4 per cent last year, recording just 4 per cent unemployment. Yet Germany and France are on the brink of recession, the Italian economy is contracting and eurozone joblessness is twice as high.

Britain's economy is set to boom and become the largest in Europe - because of Brexit




Liam Halligan
28 February 2019
The Telegraph
2945
comments


Clear-sighted, grown-up analysis shows the economic doom-mongering is wrong

The public finances are on the mend, recording a healthy surplus in January on booming tax receipts. Employment is at record levels (32.6 million), with real wage growth at a two-year high. Despite a global slowdown, Britain expanded 1.4 per cent last year, recording just 4 per cent unemployment. Yet Germany and France are on the brink of recession, the Italian economy is contracting and eurozone joblessness is twice as high.

The UK has economic problems – and let no-one say we don’t hear about them, given the relentless drumbeat of anti-Brexit media negativity. Just as the economy held up after the 2016 referendum, though – belying Treasury warnings of “an immediate and profound economic shock” – there are signs of defiant economic strength once more and confidence in our long-term future.

Norway’s $1 trillion (£753 billion) sovereign wealth fund, among the world’s most respected investors, has just confirmed it will boost its UK holdings.

“Over time, our UK allocation will increase,” said Yngve Slyngstad, the Norwegian Fund’s CEO.

“With our 30-year plus time horizon, current political discussions don’t change our view,” he added, reaffirming his commitment to Britain even in the case of a “no-deal” Brexit.

This kind of clear-sighted, grown-up analysis from professionals contrasts starkly with endless doom-mongering we get from subsidy-hungry politicos at the CBI. It’s precisely because Britain will thrive after Brexit that we attracted record foreign direct investment last year, beating the US, with only China attracting more. Even British start-ups raised almost £8 billion in venture capital during 2018 – some 70 per cent more than their French and Germany counterparts.

Boeing has opened its first manufacturing plant in Europe – in Sheffield. Technology-driven investment is piling in – not just to London but to Manchester and the North East too. And, as Brexit-bashing stories about planes not flying are trumped by reality, investors from China to the Middle East are flocking to a country just judged by Forbes magazine as the “best place in the world to do business” for the second year in a row.


In October 2018, Boeing opened a production facility in Sheffield - the company’s first manufacturing site in Europe

Yes, overseas investors are taking advantage of the weaker pound, which makes UK assets look attractive. But that’s how exchange rates work – which is why Europe’s monetary union is so crippling for many of its members.

And there is far more that makes Britain attractive than temporary good value. Our relatively “young” demography means the UK is on course to outstrip Germany, becoming Europe’s biggest economy.

The UK boasts one of the world’s top three universities across 34 out of 48 subject areas, according to an authoritative new survey. There are seven British universities in the world’s top-40 – and not a single EU-based institution that isn’t in the UK.

With our political classes making a meal of Brexit, on-going uncertainty is hindering domestic investment. Leaving the EU under such circumstances is far from ideal. Yet once the storm clouds have passed and we’ve safely left, Britain will stand out as an even more attractive destination – not least compared to a eurozone made up of member states increasingly prone to economic incoherence and political extremes.

Since June 2016, we have obsessed over the procedural mechanics of leaving the EU. What’s needed now is an even more intense focus on what really counts – the actual policies we should implement once Westminster has regained control over Britain’s laws, borders, money and trade.

Freed from EU “structural fund” restrictions, there is huge scope for a much more effective UK regional policy, boosting growth across Britain. Closing the productivity gap between the South East and elsewhere means more regional infrastructure spending – and I’d introduce infrastructure bonds to channel institutional savings (including pension funds) into revenue-generating projects.

A dozen low-tax UK “free ports” – stymied under EU rules – would help spread wealth across the country, as would post-Brexit agriculture and fishing policies, shifting subsidies towards smaller farmers while reclaiming UK fishing grounds. Our sovereign industrial policy should avoid “picking winners”, and instead be based on low and simple personal and business taxation, world-class transport and broadband connectivity, access to fast-growing international export markets and, above all, a steady supply of skilled and unskilled labour.

Skills must be central to the UK’s post-Brexit policy mix. Securing a high-wage, high-productivity economy means putting vocational training at the heart of government – with its own Cabinet position. Brexit need not mean an erosion of workers’ rights and a regulatory race to the bottom – and, despite scaremongering, I don’t believe it will, not least as our own Parliament will be in charge.

Since 2016, our political leaders have been largely silent on the opportunities provided by Brexit. Buoyed by the world’s confidence in Britain, we must now show confidence in our decision to leave and in ourselves.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ndation-widget
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#2
... another delusional lunatic fabricating fake news for other delusional lunatics to spread around.
 
Blackleaf
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

... another delusional lunatic fabricating fake news for other delusional lunatics to spread around.

The only reason why Germany has a larger economy is because its population is a third larger. But its population is old and is shrinking whereas Britain's is young and rapidly growing. Britain's economy is also booming, whereas Germany is on the brink of recession again. Germany's demographics are against it.

And as for France and Italy, they'll soon be far behind Britain economically.

Soon, Britain will be the largest nation in Europe economically, population-wise and militarily. Top dog.

Quote:

Britain's population will overtake Germany's at some point in the 2040s. These trends will leave the UK with the most sustainable old-age dependency ratio of any major EU economy. Largely because of this, the OECD estimates that the UK economy will overtake Germany's at some point in the early 2030s.

Cityam.com

Last edited by Blackleaf; Mar 3rd, 2019 at 09:17 AM..
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#4
The only reason why Germany has a larger economy is because its population is a third larger. They are also smarter, work harder and have more pride in what they produce and export than that from Britain.

The Germans sent us BMWs, Mercs, Audis and the lower cost VWs. The Brits sent us Austins, Vauxhalls, Zephers, Leyland stuff that rusted in the show rooms ... you know, cheap, shoddy rip-off-the-Colonials stuff.
 
Blackleaf
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

They are also smarter,

Are they? How do you work that out?
Quote:

work harder

Considering the British work more hours in Europe than anyone else, I'd say the British are the hardest-working of all Europeans.


Quote:

and have more pride in what they produce and export than that from Britain.

Have you got the evidence for this bizarre claim?
Quote:

Vauxhalls, Zephers, Leyland stuff that rusted in the show rooms ... you know, cheap, shoddy rip-off-the-Colonials stuff.

Aston Martin, Bentley, Rolls-Royce, Jaguar, Land Rover, Lotus, Mini, McLaren.
 
Hoid
#6
UK economy booming

therefore leave economic union
 
Blackleaf
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

UK economy booming
therefore leave economic union


The EU is more of a political union with aspirations of becoming a nation state.
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#8
Considering the British work more hours in Europe than anyone else, I'd say the British are the hardest-working of all Europeans.

If they worked a little smarter, Canadians might buy their stuff.

Aston Martin, Bentley, Rolls-Royce, Jaguar, Land Rover, Lotus, Mini, McLaren.

Except for the filthiest of the rich, these marques are not to be seen here except Jaguars and Land Rovers, both of which haunt the bottom of the quality ratings here year after year. The only people who buy Jags in Canada are ex-pat Brits. Land Rover/Range Rovers are pretty junky and the ones that reach us are not up to Canadian conditions They are seriously expensive due to the ridiculously overvalued Sterling and if you want a quality car like that, buy one from Japan that costs half as much and lasts twice as long.

Crap.

They are crap. The old fashioned military type "Land Rover" is not to be had, here. You could get them in the 1970s but due to the road salt laid here in Eastern North America to combat the ice, those aluminium body Rovers turned to diaphanus lace in a few short years.

By the way, the current "Mini" is 100% German. The only resemblance to the old Mini is it's basic profile and it's front wheel drive. The rest is Krupp of Essen and Teutonic technology. That's why they start when you turn the key. The original didn't do that below 32°F.
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#9
p.s. McClaren was a Kiwi.
 
Blackleaf
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

If they worked a little smarter, Canadians might buy their stuff.

You import more from Britain than you do from France.

Aston Martin, Bentley, Rolls-Royce, Jaguar, Land Rover, Lotus, Mini, McLaren.
Quote:

Except for the filthiest of the rich, these marques are not to be seen here

How many Canadian cars do you reckon are on British roads right now?

Quote:

both of which haunt the bottom of the quality ratings here year after year.

There are no British cars in this list of worst quality cars sold in Canada in 2017. There are one or two German cars, though.

https://carloans411.ca/blog/best-and...-cars-of-2017/

Quote:

The only people who buy Jags in Canada are ex-pat Brits.

Sales of Jaguar vehicles rose 7% around in the world in 2017, including a 23% rise in mighty China.
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

You import more from Britain than you do from France.
Aston Martin, Bentley, Rolls-Royce, Jaguar, Land Rover, Lotus, Mini, McLaren.
How many Canadian cars do you reckon are on British roads right now?
There are no British cars in this list of worst quality cars sold in Canada in 2017. There are one or two German cars, though.
https://carloans411.ca/blog/best-and...-cars-of-2017/
Sales of Jaguar vehicles rose 7% around in the world in 2017, including a 23% rise in mighty China.

They are rubbish junkers, here.

Not up to Canadian standards or requirements ..
 
Blackleaf
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

p.s. McClaren was a Kiwi.

So? Elon Musk is a South African.

Buick was a Brit.

Chevrolet was Swiss.

McLaren isn't a New Zealand company. It's a British company.
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#13
Jaguar. Brits think they're awesome. North Americans think they're scrap metal.

http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/2482...oric-car-brand
 
Hoid
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

The EU is more of a political union with aspirations of becoming a nation state.

You probably know less about economics than White Unifier.

And thats saying something
 
Blackleaf
#15
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

You probably know less about economics than White Unifier.
And thats saying something

I'm know more about the EU than you.
 
Hoid
#16
I don't think you do.

I think you're some sort of UK white natty trying to recapture some sort of imagined past.
 
White_Unifier
#17
I buy Marmite and Lyle's Golden Syrup sometimes. What else does the UK produce of value?
Last edited by White_Unifier; Mar 3rd, 2019 at 06:04 PM..
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

I buy Marmite and Lyle's Golden Syrup sometimes. What else does the Uk produce of value?

Glen Fiddich

Glenmorangie

Glenlevit

Talisker

Balvenie

Aberlour

Cardhu

Cragganmore

Laphroaig

Macallan

Bowmore

and Pusser's Rum
 
White_Unifier
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

Glen Fiddich
Glenmorangie
Glenlevit
Talisker
Balvenie
Aberlour
Cardhu
Cragganmore
Laphroaig
Macallan
Bowmore
and Pusser's Rum

All junk!
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
+1
#20  Top Rated Post
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

All junk!

Sassenach!
 
Cliffy
Free Thinker
#21
Jaguar and Land Rover are owned by the Tata company of India. Not even British anymore. Ha!
 
Blackleaf
#22
Quote: Originally Posted by Hoid View Post

I think you're some sort of UK white natty

And you think right, of course.

I'm no different from Irish or Scottish nationalists in being a white nationalist, or most American nationalists in the 1770s.

Nothing wrong in being white and a nationalist.
Last edited by Blackleaf; Mar 4th, 2019 at 02:19 PM..
 
Blackleaf
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by Cliffy View Post

Jaguar and Land Rover are owned by the Tata company of India. Not even British anymore. Ha!

Using that logic Guinness is no longer Irish. It's British.
 
White_Unifier
#24
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

Using that logic Guinness is no longer Irish. It's British.

Looks like the UK's become the bootlegger of the world. It used to sell opium too back in the day.
 
coldstream
#25
Britain should take the plunge. Go for the No Deal Bexit and forget these 'Free' Trade Deals they are trying to cobble together as an alternative. Britain's primary challenge is to rebuild a sovereign, national, integrated, industrial economy. The only way to do that is with a sensible application of tariffs while encouraging enterprise creation and domestic competition. If Northern Ireland doesn't want to follow along then it should go its own way. The EU is falling apart anyway. There is no up side in tying yourself to a collapsing organization.
 
coldstream
#26
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

Glen Fiddich

Glenmorangie

Glenlevit

Talisker

Balvenie

Aberlour

Cardhu

Cragganmore

Laphroaig

Macallan

Bowmore

and Pusser's Rum


Talisker, Glenmorangie, Laphroaig are the pick of those mentioned. Add Highland Park (a great Orkney), Lagavulin, Ardbeg, Oban. Single Malts are all a matter of personal taste though. You can't really miss with Johnny Walker Black Label, though, if you're willing to lower yourself to a blended malt. Bring your debit card, though.. they are all expensive.
 
Blackleaf
#27
Quote: Originally Posted by White_Unifier View Post

Looks like the UK's become the bootlegger of the world. It used to sell opium too back in the day.

Just a shame the Chinese government at the time bought most of their opium from the Indians.

I find it funny that so many people believe the myth that the Chinese government didn't want opium flooding their country.
 
coldstream
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by Blackleaf View Post

Just a shame the Chinese government at the time bought most of their opium from the Indians.

I find it funny that so many people believe the myth that the Chinese government didn't want opium flooding their country.


Right that's why they fought a war to suppress it. Opium was blatant scourge on Chinese society and all honourable facets of Chinese leadership opposed it. The sheer outrage and debauchery of the British Empire's advocacy of it in the interests of trade exhibited the moral bankruptcy to which it had devolved.
 
Blackleaf
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by coldstream View Post

Right that's why they fought a war to suppress it.

If the Chinese wanted to "suppress" opium then why were they buying tons of the stuff from the Indians?

It's time to end these Opium War myths.

Quote:

The sheer debauchery of the British Empire's advocacy of it, in the interests of trade exhibited the moral bankruptcy to which it had devolve.

Less debauched than other countries, who sold more opium to the Chinese than the British did.

I wish people would stop peddling the myth that the Chinese authorities of the 1840s didn't want opium on their streets and that's the reason they fought the British. The truth is they didn't give a shit. The Chinese bought loads of the stuff from India.
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by coldstream View Post

Talisker, Glenmorangie, Laphroaig are the pick of those mentioned. Add Highland Park (a great Orkney), Lagavulin, Ardbeg, Oban. Single Malts are all a matter of personal taste though. You can't really miss with Johnny Walker Black Label, though, if you're willing to lower yourself to a blended malt. Bring your debit card, though.. they are all expensive.

Teacher's Highland Cream is damned close to a single malt, too.