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Is there any data in Canada on which way the undecideds go? In the US if it's the last gallup poll the majority of undecideds (about 65%) go with the challenger. if one takes the results of the second last gallup then the incumbent has more of a chance as the vote breaks that way about 25 % of the time and the rest it breaks even.

This late in the game it would seem that anyone contemplating voting liberal would not be on the fence. Of course Canada is more complicated because of more options than the US but I can't see a scenario where that 12% is waiting to vote liberal. That 12% is shopping and they don't seem to want the usual.
Tracy, I actually hope for the 12% to vote NDP, with nearly 20% + 12%, then that will be more than all other parties than the Conservatives. Then, when Canada finds out that Harper might be crap, they vote in Jack layton the most popular politician in Canada.

Seat Projection Model: Conservatives 143-147, Liberals 59-63, NDP 39-43, And Bloc Quebecois 59-63

That would be so cool to see the Liberals and the Bloc with the same number of seats. And I am glad that with this perdiction that the NDP is only one seat below its highest ever.
I'd love to see the Liberals reduced to third party status (just to teach them a lesson in humility, and also to force Martin out of the picture for good), but I don't see it happening. Martin has finally done some solid campaigning (i.e. he's actually winning some votes). Sadly, his fear-and-smear, and "voting for the NDP is a waste of time!" arguments are working in GTA, and in some other pockets through out the country. I suspect that the Liberals will have somewhere between 90 and 100 seats (and official opposition party status) on Monday. The Conservatives will probably get over 120, the Bloc over 50, and the NDP will get whatever is left.
On the election day let's see if people have the guts to vote in Mr. Robotto. People are mad at the Liberals but are afraid of Harper. If the Conservatives had a real Conservative and not an Alliance member as leader they would be looking at a majority. Harper is a Bush puppet.
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Probably the last poll before the election

Canada Decided Voters (Tracking ended January 22, 2006, N=1,051 decided voters)

CP 36.4% (+7)

LIB 30.1% (-7)

NDP 17.4% (+2)

BQ 10.6% (-3)

GP 5.6 (+1)

*12.5% of Canadians were undecided (-3)

The Liberals have been climbing for the last few days and will probably get a good percentage of the undecided vote. What this means, is that there will not be a majority government for anyone. What a good idea this early election was. We can do it all again in_________months. Pick your own number.
Ipsos says CPC on edge of Majority government:

Future Parliament: Conservatives 148-152 Seats, The Liberals 62-66 Seats, The NDP 34-38 Seats, And The Bloc Quebecois 56-60 Seats

And with new polling fielded over the final weekend election push of the federal leaders, the results suggest that the final national vote will be:

* 38% support for Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party
* 27% support for Paul Martin and the Liberal Party
* 19% support for Jack Layton and the NDP
* 12% support for the Bloc Quebecois
* 4% support for the Green Party
No Party Affiliation

I guess we'll find out in a few hours. The election is the only true poll don't ya think?
Agreed, but it is always fun to speculate.

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