The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 29th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1048. *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1068 committed voters)
Conservative 37.0% (-1.0)
NDP 30.6% (+1.0)
Liberal 22.7% (-0.6)
Bloc Quebecois 5.5% (+0.3)
Green 3.2% (+0.1)
*Undecided 11.0% (-1.7)
This is not the last release of the CTV/Globe/Nanos election tracking. This morning's numbers are based on the three day rolling average completed Saturday evening. We are polling on Sunday with a sample double our usual size (800) and will release the stats from the calling on CTV News and also The Globe and Mail website on Sunday evening.
To be transparent we will also report the national individual day's numbers so that Canadians can see the day to day numbers for the last three days of tracking leading up to election day.
The Conservative advantage over the NDP in the three day rolling average has diminished from eight to six points. Please note that we have seen a tightening of the race looking at the one day Saturday numbers but will need to wait to see what the results are for Sunday.
Conservative support nationally is 37.0% followed by the NDP at 30.6%, the Liberals at 22.7%, the BQ at 5.5% and the Greens at 3.2%.
The campaign is now featuring a possible tightening of the races in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and British Columbia.
Factoring the margin of error for the regional sub-sample, a three way statistical tie exists in Atlantic Canada with the Liberals at 34.4%, the Conservatives at 32.9%, and the NDP at 29.1%. Support for the Greens is at 3.6% in Atlantic Canada.
The NDP still enjoy a comfortable lead in Quebec with 37.4% support followed by the BQ at 23.9%, the Liberals at 18.1%, the Conservatives at 16.7% and the Greens at 1.3%.
In Ontario, the Tories are at 36.2%, followed by the Liberals at 31.1%, the NDP at 27.4%, and the Green Party at 4.4%.
The Conservatives have a substantial lead in the Prairies with 60.5% support followed by the NDP at 25.0%, the Liberals at 12.9% and the Green Party at 1.7%.
In BC the Tories have 41.2% followed by the NDP at 34.9%, the Grits at 17.9% and the Greens at 5.7%
A look at the Nanos Leadership Index, which is a one day snapshot of the perceptions of the leaders indicates that Saturday, Jack Layton's scores significantly improved and surpassed Stephen Harper's. Layton scored 97 points (up 17 points) on the one day index compared to 88 for Stephen Harper and 39 points for Michael Ignatieff. Yesterday Layton had an advantage over Harper outside of the margin of error of the research on trust and vision for Canada while Harper maintained an advantage on competence.
Party platform remains the top vote driver at 47.3% of Canadians while the importance of party leader is trending up to 26.5%.
Healthcare is the top issue at 31.2% with about a seven point advantage over jobs/the economy which stands at 24.6%.