Canada's Federal Election Polls


Liberalman
Free Thinker
#1
Nanos poll as of March 31

Canada (n=983 committed voters)
Conservative 41.3% (+1.9)
Liberal 30.3%
(-1.4)
NDP 16.0% (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois 8.5% (-)
Green 3.7% (-0.7)

Undecided 18.1% (-2.4)
 
Colpy
Conservative
#2
Quote: Originally Posted by Liberalman View Post

Nanos poll as of March 31

Canada (n=983 committed voters)
Conservative 41.3% (+1.9)
Liberal 30.3%
(-1.4)
NDP 16.0% (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois 8.5% (-)
Green 3.7% (-0.7)

Undecided 18.1% (-2.4)

Kudos for even posting this Liberalguy..........41.3% is solidly in majority territory.

If it stays this way (and I dearly hope the CPC gains more)

Anyway, there are problems with polls.....for instance, pollsters only reach land lines, which unduly weighs the response towards older people......

In other words, the only poll that counts is the one on May 2.

Although the ones before are fascinating, they mean very little.
 
Dexter Sinister
No Party Affiliation
+3
#3  Top Rated Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Colpy View Post

Kudos for even posting this Liberalguy..........41.3% is solidly in majority territory.

True enough, but there's still 18% undecided, so that's really 41.3% of 82%, which is 33% of voters, distinctly in minority territory. I've always thought it's a little disingenuous of pollsters to present poll results that way, giving the percentages for decided voters then tacking on the level of the undecided as an afterthought, if they bother to present it at all. It implicitly suggests that the undecided vote will coalesce on polling day into the same distribution of preferences as the decided vote and that levels of support are higher than they really are.
 
Liberalman
Free Thinker
#4
The only problem with advance polls is giving a false sense of security.

The above poll shows the Conservatives in majority territory but does this
mean less conservative supporters will go out to vote because they think they
will win?

The advance poll also gets people to take a closer look at the leader to see
if there is agreement in beliefs and policy.

Years back in Ontario the polls showed a Liberal
majority so people assumed that the Liberals would win so they never voted and
on election night the NDP became the new provincial government.
Last edited by Liberalman; Apr 2nd, 2011 at 12:33 PM..Reason: ....
 
Ron in Regina
Free Thinker
#5
Currently, the Conservatives are something like 12 seats away from a majority,
and the Liberals somewhere in the neighbourhood of about 80 seats from the
same. Anything can happen. Possibility and probability are two different things
though. It'll be a (somewhat) interesting couple of weeks leading up to this next
kick at the can.
 
SLM
No Party Affiliation
#6
Canadian elections are just like our winters. It ain't over til it's over.
 
Mowich
Conservative
#7
I tend to hope that our (Conservative) numbers are well.....conservative. I don't like it when our party is ahead in the polls and would rather see them making great gains near the end of the campaign. I just hope that Ig comes out with more 500 billion dollar promises as that will only help the Conservatives.

Colpy is right, the only poll that counts is the one on May 2nd.
 
GreenFish66
#8
Whatta Waste of Time and Money..

It's GovernMental Insanity.

Must be some new Big Biz Interests lookin' to buy off more of our Big Biz Govs/Canada.

Zombie Slave Drones account for nothing more than labour in Canada..

B.S...Big Biz/Politics...as usual ..

Need a tripple Leader turnover..A Governmental make over......And it Is coming ...2 should resign when they loose(again) .. The other will soon follow...

Canada is /Canadians are, being used, abused , taken over by B.S. Artists..With no real interest in Canada or Canadians...Only their own interests..$$$$...

B.S., always payed for, by the Perpetually Pennyless Public..

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Ed-the...=wall&filter=2 ... How about the Fed Up ( F.U)Party ? Let Ed the Sock enter the Leaders Debate...Would be more Entertaining anyway..

There is no Properous/Sustainable Future for Canada/ Canadians as long as these False Faced Leaders Stand lying to the Canadian Public, making their false promises, claiming they Stand for Canadian's/on Canada's behalf..

Sorry to say ...They don't ..

Always = The Same result...

= Governmental Insanity...

Lost all sense of Reality.

Green/Clean Tech is now...Is the Future...The Only Way Forward, Toward Prosperity/Sustainability, For 1, For All .. Forever...and Always..

Peace.

Over and Outta Here...
Last edited by GreenFish66; Apr 2nd, 2011 at 03:33 PM..
 
Liberalman
Free Thinker
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by GreenFish66 View Post

Whatta Waste of Time and Money..

It's GovernMental Insanity.

Must be some new Big Biz Interests lookin' to buy off more of our Big Biz Govs/Canada.

Zombie Slave Drones account for nothing more than labour in Canada..

B.S...Big Biz/Politics...as usual ..

Need a tripple Leader turnover..A Governmental make over......And it Is coming ...2 should resign when they loose(again) .. The other will soon follow...

Canada is /Canadians are, being used, abused , taken over by B.S. Artists..With no real interest in Canada or Canadians...Only their own interests..$$$$...

B.S., always payed for, by the Perpetually Pennyless Public..

There is no Properous/Sustainable Future for Canada/ Canadians or/ with, these False Faced Leaders...

Sorry to say ...

Always = The Same result...

= Governmental Insanity...

Lost all sense of Reality.

Green/Clean Tech is now...Is the Future...The Only Way Forward, Toward Prosperity/Sustainability, For 1, For All .. Forever...and Always..

Peace.

Over and Outta Here...

Elections are part of democracy and freedom and
freedom costs in money and lives, so enjoy the experience because you are one
of the Canadians paying for it.
 
DaSleeper
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by Liberalman View Post

Elections are part of democracy and freedom and
freedom costs in money and lives, so enjoy the experience because you are one
of the Canadians paying for it.

Some are paying more than others for it......
And Avro is paying more than me....
 
GreenFish66
#11
Democracy in Canada/Globally(right now) is a falasy...Democracy only works when all voices are heard and taken into account. In Canada , like in most countries, the only voices heard, are the ones Big biz/Gov want to hear...cuz ya can't please everyone .>Democratically..

Is all B.S..

Democracy should work to alert the Leaders of needed/wanted change, of things to come...
Apparently "They" re not listening ....

The ones they don't want to hear are democratically and all too often ,so Obviously, ignored/silenced ..

Democracy is not to please the masses, but to control them, more Peacefully..
Last edited by GreenFish66; Apr 2nd, 2011 at 04:00 PM..
 
weaselwords
No Party Affiliation
#12
The last overnight poll I saw showed only 6% difference between the Conservatives & the Liberals (Nanos 4/1-4/2)

Quote: Originally Posted by weaselwords View Post

The last overnight poll I saw showed only 6% difference between the Conservatives & the Liberals (Nanos 4/1-4/2)

Misread the date please ignore. Thanks for your patience.
 
Liberalman
Free Thinker
#13
Nanos Poll ending April 1

Canada (n=986 committed voters)
Conservative 40.7% (-0.6)
Liberal 29.4% (-0.9)
NDP 16.9% (+0.9)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0% (-0.5)
Green 4.0% (+0.3)
Undecided 17.8% (-0.3)
 
GreenFish66
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by Liberalman View Post

Nanos Poll ending April 1

Canada (n=986 committed voters)
Conservative 40.7% (-0.6)
Liberal 29.4% (-0.9)
NDP 16.9% (+0.9)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0% (-0.5)
Green 4.0% (+0.3)
Undecided 17.8% (-0.3)

-------------------------------------------

hmmm?.. Let's see..Somethin' about that poll just ain't quite right...

Conservative ( -Nano's bias,.round down.- 5%.Give that to the greens..Given my bad math habits ). 34%
Liberal -(Ah.mmm. Accuracy +-3 uh,- 2 ,Liberal bias ,Because Liberalman made the post = -5, round down.Give that to the greens,,) .................................................. .................................................. ............................................ 23%
NDP - ( Well we'll just merge them with the Greens)
Bloc - Well... never mind.............................................. .................................................. ...........................8%
Undecided? - I'll Decide for them ...ahmmmm? .. Let's say Green.
GREEN - ( what's that..4+6+5+17+18...=...umm..yeah about ..) .................................................. ............................. = 50%

----------------------

...

There you have it.. That's more like it... ..

Is GoverMental Insanity/This Democrazy !
Last edited by GreenFish66; Apr 3rd, 2011 at 08:23 PM..
 
damngrumpy
No Party Affiliation
#15
At this stage of a campaign those figures mean very little. It should be remembered the Tories
would get a five percent boost when the election is called, happens every time. What is interesting
is the fact that the Bloc is that high. Remember, they are in one Province only and that could have
a serious outcome for someone if the numbers hold.
I predict the race will tighten up in the coming weeks and the original poll numbers will not reflect
where we are right now. The undecideds will likely not go for the government so how does that
split break down? The Greens are not growing in any real measure, so the Green vote is sliding to
the NDP in some measure likely over the past ten months that provided higher figures for Layton.
Some of that vote may well trickle to the Liberals before the end of the race. I think the Conservatives
would have been much happier to see their numbers at forty five to forty six percent and allow for the
race to tighten up. These figure point in the direction of another minority as voters will change views
and the margins of error are yet another factor here.
The Liberal platform is just out and it will gain some traction I am sure. At forty one percent, the
Tories are in an unfavorable position. Undecideds seldom break down and vote for the status quo.
Where that vote goes and how the 18 percent splits up, it the answer to who form government.
I say that because we don't know riding per riding how much undecided vote is located. That also
makes a huge difference. I think this is going to be a very close race in the end with much to be
decided in the weeks ahead. Remember the first two polls are nothing more than an outline, the
real polling figures of substance do not reflect a direction until about week three in a campaign,
usually. I have been around polls, media, strategy, and campaign rooms a long time and I don't
see anyone panicking yet because there is no clear substantive direction for anyone yet.
 
GreenFish66
#16
= ..Same result..
 
sweetfrog
#17
Here is an interesting poll about Candian politics. You can cast a vote with your IP ADDRESS.
 
Liberalman
Free Thinker
#18
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average
of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 2nd (n=1,200; committed voters
only n=986).

Canada (n=986 committed voters)
Conservative 42.3%
(+1.6)
Liberal 28.4% (-1.0)
NDP 16.4% (-0.5)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0%
(NC)
Green 3.8% (-0.2)
Undecided 17.8% (NC)
 
taxslave
Free Thinker
+1
#19
Quote: Originally Posted by GreenFish66 View Post

Democracy in Canada/Globally(right now) is a falasy...Democracy only works when all voices are heard and taken into account. In Canada , like in most countries, the only voices heard, are the ones Big biz/Gov want to hear...cuz ya can't please everyone .>Democratically..

Is all B.S..

Democracy should work to alert the Leaders of needed/wanted change, of things to come...
Apparently "They" re not listening ....

The ones they don't want to hear are democratically and all too often ,so Obviously, ignored/silenced ..

Democracy is not to please the masses, but to control them, more Peacefully..

I guess that would depend largely on weather or not it is your party that is governing. Just because a politician isn't listening to you does not mean he/she isn't listening to someone.
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by Liberalman View Post

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average
of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 2nd (n=1,200; committed voters
only n=986).

Canada (n=986 committed voters)
Conservative 42.3%
(+1.6)
Liberal 28.4% (-1.0)
NDP 16.4% (-0.5)
Bloc Quebecois 8.0%
(NC)
Green 3.8% (-0.2)
Undecided 17.8% (NC)

Looks like Good bye Iggy to me!
 
damngrumpy
No Party Affiliation
#21
Personally, I have never considered elections to be about democracy. Elections are for
civilized people who want to engage in a civil war without guns.
I did go out and contact some of the old broadcasters to get their take on this election.
Many are still in the game if information, and I spoke with some old friends and foes
who used to be directly engaged in election campaigns like I did. We discussed the polls
and the direction of the election so far and to date we know some things for sure and the
rest is still a mystery. Jack will not be the Prime Minister but he has a chance to be king
maker. We know the number of undecideds is considerable which means the poll
numbers do not mean much so far and the election will tighten up in the next ten days.
All the talk and hot air is just that, no one has a lock on this thing at all, and the surprising
thing is the latest Iggy ads are good, he looks relaxed and personable, I didn't think that was
possible. Layton and the New Democrats have come up with some campaign ads that
actually interest people. The Greens are going to spend all their campaign money on one
candidate their leader, and I don't think she will win it either.
What about the Tories? They are in the bubble, and they won't be able to stay there, as the
campaign is going to force change on them. Once they are outside the bubble, they are
vulnerable because they were content to maintain a defencive campaign from the start and
its hard to go to offence. The problem is they don't have anything new to go on offence with.
Those He didn't come back for you, is stale and the times have changed. People are starting
to say so what about a cloak and dagger, coalition. It is all wearing thin and the fact the
deficit is so high leaves them with little room to argue the economy under serious scrutiny.
Ten days before the election we will see the roller coaster ride heading in a particular direction.
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
+1
#22
Quote: Originally Posted by damngrumpy View Post

Personally, I have never considered elections to be about democracy. Elections are for
civilized people who want to engage in a civil war without guns.
I did go out and contact some of the old broadcasters to get their take on this election.
Many are still in the game if information, and I spoke with some old friends and foes
who used to be directly engaged in election campaigns like I did. We discussed the polls
and the direction of the election so far and to date we know some things for sure and the
rest is still a mystery. Jack will not be the Prime Minister but he has a chance to be king
maker. We know the number of undecideds is considerable which means the poll
numbers do not mean much so far and the election will tighten up in the next ten days.
All the talk and hot air is just that, no one has a lock on this thing at all, and the surprising
thing is the latest Iggy ads are good, he looks relaxed and personable, I didn't think that was
possible. Layton and the New Democrats have come up with some campaign ads that
actually interest people. The Greens are going to spend all their campaign money on one
candidate their leader, and I don't think she will win it either.
What about the Tories? They are in the bubble, and they won't be able to stay there, as the
campaign is going to force change on them. Once they are outside the bubble, they are
vulnerable because they were content to maintain a defencive campaign from the start and
its hard to go to offence. The problem is they don't have anything new to go on offence with.
Those He didn't come back for you, is stale and the times have changed. People are starting
to say so what about a cloak and dagger, coalition. It is all wearing thin and the fact the
deficit is so high leaves them with little room to argue the economy under serious scrutiny.
Ten days before the election we will see the roller coaster ride heading in a particular direction.

I think at the end of the day the biggest news about this election will be that $300 million of our dollars have been squandered on a bunch of idiots.
 
damngrumpy
No Party Affiliation
#23
JLM at the end of the day the masses will have been caught up in the emotion of
the moment. When they sober up the week after the election, the realization will set
in and then the howling will start. Remember the angry people of tomorrow are today
making contributions to the political party of their choice.
Reason, facts, and ideas don't count for much during an election, everyone is
contributing to the effort bragging rights. I hope you don't think I am cynical about this.
 
mentalfloss
#24
Quote: Originally Posted by JLM View Post

I think at the end of the day the biggest news about this election will be that $300 million of our dollars have been squandered on a bunch of idiots.

$300 million / 20 million = $15.00 per person

That wallet crushing $15 Election.

weeeeeeeeeeeee
Last edited by mentalfloss; Apr 4th, 2011 at 10:19 PM..
 
GreenFish66
#25
Quote: Originally Posted by taxslave View Post

I guess that would depend largely on weather or not it is your party that is governing. Just because a politician isn't listening to you does not mean he/she isn't listening to someone.


...I'm sorry Tax Slave, ...What's that you say,?Can you Repeat that?,.I wasn't listen.,,?.(.I mean, my eye's were closed..?)
 
petros
+1
#26
Was it a 10 foot poll?
 
Liberalman
Free Thinker
#27
At the beginning of the election Canadians care
more about health care but after week one of the federal election campaign
economy is on most people’s mind.

Like in the last election Stephen Harper has
to make a major mistake for the Liberals to win.

Conservatives are for business, war machine and crime and Liberals are for the family, jobs and education so
far
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by Liberalman View Post

At the beginning of the election Canadians care
more about health care but after week one of the federal election campaign
economy is on most people’s mind.

Like in the last election Stephen Harper has
to make a major mistake for the Liberals to win.

Conservatives are for business, war machine and crime and Liberals are for the family, jobs and education so
far

Seems to me the Conservative are the ones trying to toughen up on crime and why we are hearing the uproar at the suggestion of building more prisons (bunkers I hope) . I think Iggy's pile of sh*t has passed your eyeballs, Liberalman.
 
Trex
+1
#29
As I posted on another thread threehundredeight.com has daily unbiased analysis of all polling in Canada on a riding by riding basis.
The latest Nik Nanos polling is obviously included and referenced.
As of this morning the Cons have 154 seats which is an 11 seat gain since the writ was dropped.
Thats now a majority considering three empty seats and two independents (one of whom is a Con).

Single polls are a snapshot and tend to be innaccurate but all the polls taken together over time will show an accurate trend.
The trend is a Con majority.

If you are opposed to a future Conservative government the next chance at changing voter intentions will either be a serious screwup by Harper or the upcoming debates.

ThreeHundredEight.com
Trex
 
Avro
No Party Affiliation
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by JLM View Post

I think at the end of the day the biggest news about this election will be that $300 million of our dollars have been squandered on a bunch of idiots.

I say that eveytime I see a public employee.
 

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