The US Economy Isn’t Doing “Just Fine”


Locutus
#1
It's Probably Nothing



David Stockman;
During the last 12 months, retail sales of autos were up 6.1% or by $65 billion. But then again, auto loan paper outstanding was up by nearly $90 billion!


That's right. Auto lenders--especially the legions of subprime nonbank operations that have sprung up with junk bond financing----have been extending credit to anyone who can fog a rear view mirror. Indeed, since mid-2010 when the auto recovery incepted, auto credit outstanding is up by $340 billion or by 90% of the $375 billion gain in auto sales.


Needless to say, virtually 100% debt financing of an auto sales boom is no more sustainable than was the MEW financing of household consumption last time around. Like then, the pool of credit worthy borrowers has been depleted, meaning that it is only a matter if time before the debt fueled auto boom of recent years goes pear-shaped.
[...]


In short, this is just one more case of the truism that under conditions of "peak debt" new borrowings do not increase GDP on a permanent basis; they just steal sales and output from future years, thereby booby-trapping the main street economy with recession risk that the Keynesian Cool-Aid drinkers refuse to recognize.
Why Dip Buyers Will Get Clobbered: The US Economy Isn’t Doing “Just Fine” | David Stockman's Contra Corner

h/t sda
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
+4
#2  Top Rated Post
As long as the Dairy Queen stays afloat I don't care. .
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#3
But, but ... The U.S. dollar is so high!! Think how much that will help to stem the loss of manufacturing ...

Never mind.
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
#4
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

But, but ... The U.S. dollar is so high!! Think how much that will help to stem the loss of manufacturing ...

Never mind.

It's cyclical,,,,
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by Ludlow View Post

It's cyclical,,,,

It's usually too high if the U.S. is interested in export. Mostly, the U.S. is more interested in import and your high dollar helps you with that.
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
+2
#6
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

It's usually too high if the U.S. is interested in export. Mostly, the U.S. is more interested in import and your high dollar helps you with that.

It was just a sarcastic comment hell I don't know shyt about economics. I've lived a long time and all I know is you're either flush or your fukkin broke. All the crap in between the experts can pontificate on. Just keep Jack in the Box and Dairy Queen open.
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
+1
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by Ludlow View Post

It was just a sarcastic comment hell I don't know shyt about economics. I've lived a long time and all I know is you're either flush or your fukkin broke. All the crap in between the experts can pontificate on. Just keep Jack in the Box and Dairy Queen open.

I like those awesome pecan Waffle House waffles that you get down in Georgia. They are about half pecans and I want another one or two before I die.
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
#8
Never had one but I do love pecans. We have the Waffle Houses in Arizona but I only went there a few times years ago.
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by Ludlow View Post

Never had one but I do love pecans. We have the Waffle Houses in Arizona but I only went there a few times years ago.

You have to get 'em where they grow the pecans!
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

You have to get 'em where they grow the pecans!

Interestingly enough there are hundreds of Pecan groves in Arizona. Especially when you drive by Picacho Peak on your way from Phoenix to Tucson. Pecan trees for miles and miles out in the middle of the desert. I'm sure Georgia is the biggest producer though,,,along with the peaches.
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Ludlow View Post

Interestingly enough there are hundreds of Pecan groves in Arizona. Especially when you drive by Picacho Peak on your way from Phoenix to Tucson. Pecan trees for miles and miles out in the middle of the desert. I'm sure Georgia is the biggest producer though,,,along with the peaches.

I remember the orange groves in Arizona. Are they still going strong or did they get wiped out by disease like a lot of Florida's?
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

I remember the orange groves in Arizona. Are they still going strong or did they get wiped out by disease like a lot of Florida's?

The orange trees got wiped out by apartment complexes. Use to be hundreds of acres of oranges but the need for housing took em out. Too bad too because one of my favorite memories growing up in Phoenix was the smell of the orange blossum's. There are still plenty of citrus trees in almost every home in central Phoenix though and Grapefruit trees are everywhere. But the commercial Orange tree groves are gone forever.
 
Curious Cdn
No Party Affiliation
#13
Quote: Originally Posted by Ludlow View Post

The orange trees got wiped out by apartment complexes. Use to be hundreds of acres of oranges but the need for housing took em out. Too bad too because one of my favorite memories growing up in Phoenix was the smell of the orange blossum's. There are still plenty of citrus trees in almost every home in central Phoenix though and Grapefruit trees are everywhere. But the commercial Orange tree groves are gone forever.

A shame. It was a beautiful thing in such a dry place. Now you've got me remembering. I've been to the Southwest in the last few years but it's been a while since I was in Arizona. I remember the San Francisco mountains and walking up a big cinder cone called Sunset Crater ... and all of the ancient ruined pueblos through there.
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
+1
#14
Arizona is a unique place. I don't like desert but Arizona has a diverse landscape. If I ever hit the big lottery I may move back to the high country there because it is pretty with lots of Pine covered mountain,,,lakes and streams.

And it is my home
 
gopher
No Party Affiliation
+3
#15
Locutus,


It's sooooooo nice when a Canadian like you is ever so solicitous of our day-to-day USA concerns when your own country's currency is so f^^^^^d up.
 
petros
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by Curious Cdn View Post

But, but ... The U.S. dollar is so high!! Think how much that will help to stem the loss of manufacturing ...

Never mind.

Oh yeah, manufactures love paying $1.45 from their USD priced supply chain, fhen manufacturing at high labour costs, energy costs, taxes, carbon taxes and selling at a 40% discount.

It's fanf-ckingtastic!!!
Last edited by petros; Jan 27th, 2016 at 12:13 AM..
 
Bar Sinister
No Party Affiliation
+1
#17
Maybe not. But it is booming compared to Canada's.
 
tay
#18
Oil Price Crash Has Put Almost 300,000 Texans Out Of Work


The most painful impact of the price plunge has been, of course, the thousands of direct and indirect jobs that have been lost. Approximately 246,000 people were employed in the Texas O&G industry in December 2015, down nearly 20% Y/Y. A year earlier, Texas's O&G workforce numbered a record 306,330.

And Ingham says more layoffs are likely to come. "We're probably looking at at least another 10,000 per quarter in the first half of 2016. And even that may not be the end of it."

“If prices [do] not recover quickly and not rise much higher than they are now for some period of time, then the outlook in terms of overall activity levels and employment, in particular, is fairly dire,” he said. “That’s not an industry that needs as many jobs on the payroll as it has right now.”

From peak levels in 2014 when oil prices were ~$100/bbl, the Texas rig count is down by an estimated 68%, drilling permits are off 70% and O&G well completions have decreased by around 60%, Ingham said.

He pointed out that last week the Texas rig count dropped below 300 for the first time in over 15 years (since March-April 2000). "The last time the rig count was below 300, oil and gas industry employment was below 125,000 jobs."

And, as is the case with jobs, Ingham said the state's rig count will likely decline further this year. "We're down by 68% and I fear we're not done with that yet...On what basis is the rig count going to rise this Friday, or the Friday after that, that's sometime in the future."

The Oil Price Crash Has Put Almost 300,000 Texans Out Of Work, Ingham Says - Oilpro
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
+1
#19
The economy did fine when Clinton was in there hell everyone was working and things were going great. When Bush was elected things slowly started going down the toilet. This from a tradesman's point of view. But what the hell. Sometimes things are good and then there are times when things seem to go to shyt. Just be thankful to have experienced it what ever it is.
 
EagleSmack
+1
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by Ludlow View Post

Arizona is a unique place. I don't like desert but Arizona has a diverse landscape. If I ever hit the big lottery I may move back to the high country there because it is pretty with lots of Pine covered mountain,,,lakes and streams.

And it is my home


I went there on a conference and decided to stay a few extra days.


I went from Phoenix... to Tombstone... to Tucson...saw the Biosphere II...Casa Grande Ruins... and back to Phoenix.
 
JLM
No Party Affiliation
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by Bar Sinister View Post

Maybe not. But it is booming compared to Canada's.


Not sure if "booming" is quite the word. A lot of crop failures in the U.S. and the weather has definitely taken a bigger toll.
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
#22
Never had the desire to go to Tombstone. I like the high country and Sedona. Phoenix is my home town and I probably feel more comfortable when I'm there but now there are just too damn many people.
 
EagleSmack
+2
#23
Quote: Originally Posted by Ludlow View Post

Never had the desire to go to Tombstone. I like the high country and Sedona. Phoenix is my home town and I probably feel more comfortable when I'm there but now there are just too damn many people.


But now I can say I saw the O.K Corral. That gives me a lot of Street Cred here in Boston.
 
Murphy
Conservative
#24
Quote: Originally Posted by Ludlow View Post

It's cyclical,,,,

I believe it's pronounced 'cyclical'.
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
#25
Quote: Originally Posted by Murphy View Post

I believe it's pronounced 'cyclical'.

uh. okay
 
Angstrom
No Party Affiliation
-1
#26
Our economies will never recover. Why is everyone expecting them too?
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
#27
Quote: Originally Posted by Angstrom View Post

Our economies will never recover. Why is everyone expecting them too?

I have no expectations of anything. What ever happens, it fvcking happens and you deal with it the best you can. Most people feel that way I have no clue what the fukk you're talking about.
 
gopher
No Party Affiliation
+1
#28
another 292,000 jobs added last month --- not too shabby
 
pgs
Free Thinker
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by gopher View Post

another 292,000 jobs added last month --- not too shabby

Where ? government ? or part time ?
 
Ludlow
No Party Affiliation
+1
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by pgs View Post

Where ? government ? or part time ?

what difference does it make it's a fawking job isn't it?

That means that more people aren't at the unemployment office.
 

Similar Threads