Why leaving Canada makes sense for Alberta, and U.S. would likely welcome a new state


B00Mer
+1
#1
Why leaving Canada makes sense for Alberta, and U.S. would likely welcome a new state



U.S. forecaster Peter Zeihan, a former geopolitical analyst with the security firm Stratfor, has spent his career trying to predict the future of tumultuous states — recently, he’s turned his gaze to North America. Now, his latest book, The Accidental Superpower, takes a bleak look at the direction of the world in general. Among his speculations, the future of Alberta in Canada. He spoke to the Post‘s Jen Gerson.

Q Tell me about your book as a whole?

A The global system as we understand it is highly artificial. The United States created it after the Second World War to fight the Cold War. We introduced this concept of free trade that allowed anyone we were friendly with to trade with anyone else we were friendly with — the U.S. guaranteed the security of the oceans, it would open its markets, it would patrol the Middle East and make sure energy could get to where it needed to go. Before, you had competing empires fighting for resources and markets. The American system expanded peace and prosperity throughout the world in a way the human race had never experienced before. But we did it to contain the Soviet Union. Since the Cold War ended, the U.S. has been withdrawing from that system.

Q Why?

A Two big things. The first is shale oil — the U.S. will be energy independent by the end of 2016. Shale is severing the strongest link between us in North America and the rest of the world. The Middle East is becoming someone else’s problem.

The second piece is demographics. The percentage of Americans who are baby boomers is smaller than the equivalent cohort elsewhere. Every other country (except New Zealand) has a much larger population hitting mass retirement, and you’ve got all the financial problems that come with that.

Q Amid this interesting geopolitical shift, you devote a chapter to Alberta’s possible secession.

A Canada’s demographic situation is similar to the rest of the developed world — a large population moving toward retirement and hardly any young people in the replacement generation coming up.

However, Alberta does not fit that mould. It is the youngest province, and is becoming younger, better paid and more highly skilled as the rest of Canada becomes older and less skilled, and a ward of the state financially.

The other piece is, of course, energy. British Columbia has been hostile to Alberta’s efforts to diversity oil exports and the Atlantic is more than 2,000 miles away.

But really, it comes down to demographics. Right now, every man, woman and child in Alberta pay $6,000 more into the national budget than they get back. Alberta is the only province that is a net contributor to that budget — by 2020, the number will exceed $20,000 per person, $40,000 per taxpayer. That will be the greatest wealth transfer in per capita terms in the Western world. The only other place we see things like that is in Saudi Arabia, where the oil-producing regions subsidize the rest of the country.



Q Secession has been a dirty political word in Alberta for several years, with politicians rumoured to be secret secessionists. That talk died down when the Harper Conservatives were elected — when a group of people who came out of the Alberta mould assumed power.

A On Stephen Harper’s watch, Alberta’s tax bill has basically tripled. This is going on while you have a federal government that is pro-Alberta.

From my point of view, it doesn’t matter if it’s this government, the next government, or the one after. The demographic trends are locked in. If you get a government in Ottawa that isn’t Conservative, isn’t born, bred, raised and trained in Alberta, what do you think they’re going to be doing to the tax policies?

Q So this is a conversation about secession to the U.S.?

A Alberta as an independent country doesn’t solve a huge number of problems. If it left Canada, its currency goes through the roof because all it has is oil exports, and that would drive agriculture out of business. It would be a one-horse economy in a very short time.

Seceding to the U.S. becomes the only political and economic option. If you do that, the inflation issue goes away, the tax problem goes away, the security problem goes away. Alberta gets everything it says it wants out of Canada within the first year of joining the U.S.

Seceding to the U.S. becomes the only political and economic option
Q Do you think the Americans would have us?

A Americans have a reputation for being ignorant and short-sighted, but I would be stunned if there was a single person in Congress who would think this a bad idea. If you bring Alberta into the country, the U.S. becomes technically energy independent overnight. I would expect ratification of the expansion to sail through Congress in a matter of hours.

Q In Alberta, the numbers and logic might make sense, but politically and culturally it still seems to be a huge stretch to think Albertans would seriously consider this.

A I’m a forecaster. My job is to look at the trends of how the world works. Comfort makes people a little more passive and Canada is a comfortable place. Because secession is legal, Albertans are going to have to think about this — that doesn’t mean they will seriously consider it. But a $40,000 per taxpayer bill every year, that’s a bit of a motivator.

source: Why leaving Canada makes sense for Alberta, and U.S. would likely welcome a new state | National Post

..................................

This is now even a bigger question now that Canada has a leader that has made it clear he does not like Alberta.

FreeAlberta.com: For An Independent Alberta

Like father, like son: Kenney says Justin Trudeau’s ‘arrogant anti-Alberta attitude’ is as bad as Pierre Trudeau’s | National Post
 
darkbeaver
+3
#2
Out of the frying pan into the fire. Try to keep your stupid ideas to yourself. Boobs your good at survival tactics for states and provinv\ces , noy so good at.
 
B00Mer
+1
#3
Quote: Originally Posted by darkbeaver View Post

Out of the frying pan into the fire. Try to keep your stupid ideas to yourself. Boobs your good at survival tactics for states and provinv\ces , noy so good at.

What makes you think there are not a lot of Albertans thinking the very same thing this morning..



Quebec has gotten to much, and now there is a leader in office that does not like Alberta, and is very partial to Quebec.

It's time for Real Change, and that starts with Alberta leaving Canada.

I'm starting to feel like many of the Quebecers I meet; "I'm not Canadian, I'm Quebecois." Just more Albertan than Canadian.
 
Cannuck
+3 / -1
#4
Quote: Originally Posted by B00Mer View Post

What makes you think there are not a lot of Albertans thinking the very same thing this morning.

A - Albertans aren't as stupid as you are

B - Albertans aren't Canadians only when it's convenient, like you.
 
B00Mer
+1
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

A - Albertans aren't as stupid as you are

B - Albertans aren't Canadians only when it's convenient, like you.

You're only one welfare grabbing dipper.. you probably voted NDP again. Go back to surfing Google for pictures of kitchens.
 
Cannuck
+1
#6
Quote: Originally Posted by B00Mer View Post

You're only one welfare grabbing dipper.. you probably voted NDP again. Go back to surfing Google for pictures of kitchens.

Poor Boomer...awfully salty this morning. I thought cab drivers liked Justin.
 
B00Mer
#7
I guess Cannuck, you're like many Carpet Baggers living off the Alberta Social Services who are to stupid to learn about Alberta history.

There is a strong American influence in Alberta.

American settlers are part of our story | Forgotten Alberta
 
Cliffy
+1
#8
Oh my, I guess it isn't too surprising that the cons are sore losers. I hope they get it out of their system before some of them give themselves a heart attack.
 
B00Mer
#9
Quote: Originally Posted by Cliffy View Post

Oh my, I guess it isn't too surprising that the cons are sore losers. I hope they get it out of their system before some of them give themselves a heart attack.

Eh, I'm just stating the obvious.. Alberta separatism has been a consideration for some time, particularly when Trudeau Sr. was running the country. You don't think that now that Jr. has been elected that sentiment might not return, maybe tenfold.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_separatism
 
Cannuck
+2 / -1
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by B00Mer View Post

I guess Cannuck, you're like many Carpet Baggers living off the Alberta Social Services are to stupid to learn about Alberta history.

American settlers are part of our story | Forgotten Alberta

Stop being so silly. Our homecoming here is the July 4th weekend every year because the American immigrants wanted to celebrate that day. I don't need some cab driver telling me about our local history. It's interesting that the Americans that came here became real Canadians and not Canadians of convenience. As somebody that has admitted to coming back to Canada for the social programs, it's pretty clear which one of us is the Dipper, sponging off the taxpayers
 
B00Mer
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

Stop being so silly. Our homecoming here is the July 4th weekend every year because the American immigrants wanted to celebrate that day. I don't need some cab driver telling me about our local history. It's interesting that the Americans that came here became real Canadians and not Canadians of convenience. As somebody that has admitted to coming back to Canada for the social programs, it's pretty clear which one of us is the Dipper, sponging off the taxpayers

Hey fukkhead, Healthcare is for ALL Canadians dumba$$. I was born in Canada, I'm not sure you were.

Oh calling me a cab driver, well at least I have a job and not collecting welfare like you.
 
Cannuck
+2
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by B00Mer View Post

Eh, I'm just stating the obvious.. Alberta separatism has been a consideration for some time...

Only by a small minority of nutters. The only thing that's obvious is that you're very silly
 
darkbeaver
+2
#13
Quote: Originally Posted by B00Mer View Post

I guess Cannuck, you're like many Carpet Baggers living off the Alberta Social Services who are to stupid to learn about Alberta history.

There is a strong American influence in Alberta.

American settlers are part of our story | Forgotten Alberta

There's a strong American influence in Lybia and Iraq as well twit.
 
B00Mer
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

Only by a small minority of nutters. The only thing that's obvious is that you're very silly

Big enough story for the National Post to run it..

Why leaving Canada makes sense for Alberta, and U.S. would likely welcome a new state | National Post
 
darkbeaver
+4
#15
America only ever adopts a country after it has carpet bombed it's inhabitants to dust. Good luck Alberta.
 
Cannuck
+1
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by B00Mer View Post

... Healthcare is for all Canadians....

Yes, and I'm sure you feel entitled to your entitlements.

Ask not what your country....oh never mind. You're just another pig at the trough. If we got rid of socialized health care you would be gone in a flash being the proud Canadian you are eh?
 
B00Mer
#17
Quote: Originally Posted by darkbeaver View Post

There's a strong American influence in Lybia and Iraq as well twit.

yeah, the military have to screw something when they are over there.. same shjt happen in Vietnam, and the soldiers left, leaving the bastard children too.
 
Cannuck
#18
Quote: Originally Posted by B00Mer View Post

Big enough story for the National Post to run it..

Stop being so silly. You're embarrassing yourself. There is simply no appetite for separation in Alberta. Only nutters think there is.
 
darkbeaver
#19
The USA already has vast empty spaces it can't afford to do anything with.
 
Cannuck
+3
#20
Quote: Originally Posted by darkbeaver View Post

The USA already has vast empty spaces it can't afford to do anything with.

Are we talking Boomers head?
 
Tecumsehsbones
+2
#21
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

Are we talking Boomers head?

That's what I got from it.
 
B00Mer
#22
Quote: Originally Posted by Cannuck View Post

Yes, and I'm sure you feel entitled to your entitlements.

Ask not what your country....oh never mind. You're just another pig at the trough. If we got rid of socialized health care you would be gone in a flash being the proud Canadian you are eh?

Nah, I think we need to revamp Canadian Health Care and add co-pays for everyone.. a user fee of sorts. $25 for a doctor's visit, $50 for urgent care, and $100 for Emergency. The money can go back into the system directly to the facility to help improve services.

This way the facilities that are visited more get a direct infusion of money from users to improve facilities, immediately.

But as I remember you were dead against that when I suggested it before, however I'm sure that welfare grabbing leeches like you could get a voucher or something so you don't have to pay the co-pay.

But I know the Dippers will be dead against paying any user fees, or anything at all.. they just want free stuff from the government.
 
Cannuck
#23
I'm in favour of user fees so I'll just add that to the ever-expanding list of things you're wrong about. The list is getting pretty long.
 
darkbeaver
#24
I'm in favour of scraping social healthcare altogether in Canada, let the sick and old die in turn. That is if you're really interested in drastic reduction of government expendetures. You will note this proposed programe would greatly promote interest in personal health care initiative, something lacking almost entirely in most Canadians dayly thinking. I have abused the system at will my entire life with no penalty whatever. I have recently, because of health difficulties, taken fittness to heart and I am pleased to announce that I have done away with at least one pack of cigarretts a day leaving me only consuming the other one, this has greatly enhanced my breathing and road work. I can now do the entire seventy five feet to the half ton without resting. Sometimes I even do it without a smoke on the way.
Last edited by darkbeaver; Oct 20th, 2015 at 08:08 AM..
 
gerryh
+5
#25  Top Rated Post
Well boomer, you want to leave, don't let door hit your a$$ on the way out, and leave your citizenship at the door too, traitor.

Shows us your true colours, when the going gets tough, the pussies run like scared little girls.
 
B00Mer
+1
#26
Quote: Originally Posted by gerryh View Post

Well boomer, you want to leave, don't let door hit your a$$ on the way out, and leave your citizenship at the door too, traitor.

Shows us your true colours, when the going gets tough, the pussies run like scared little girls.

Wow, personal attacks to a NationalPost.com story.

I think GerryH has too much fiber in his diet.

However, I'm kind of shocked personally, after the election this is like the 3rd news story I have seen on this topic hit Canadian forums.

Would Alberta be better off outside Canada?

Should Alberta separate?

I can also understand the anger and resentment of the idea from those "Have-not" provinces.

We would still have Hockey, our football could become NFL, we would have pipelines, no transfer payments ($25B/year which Ontario & Quebec thank us by blocking pipelines), stronger currencies giving us more buying power and I don't think the guns issue would be that big of a problem as long as we still have bad winters.

Politically, AB has almost no say in Canadian federal politics. It's a no contest now that Trudeau Jr. is now PM, we could be headed for the 1980s when Pierre Trudeau destroyed the AB economy. No Canadian provinces will let AB develop our resources the way they could be. BC refuses to let us build a pipeline an deast of Saskatchewan Ontario and Quebec outright refuse. We are forced to sell our oil at $20-40 discounts to the US already since we have no other buyers without ocean access. Obama would not be allowed to veto a pipeline if AB was a US state.

The very fact that the CBC is so heavily endorsing this leads me to believe the east really does want us gone in the name of "environmentalism."
Last edited by B00Mer; Oct 20th, 2015 at 08:47 AM..
 
EagleSmack
+1
#27
Quote: Originally Posted by darkbeaver View Post

America only ever adopts a country after it has carpet bombed it's inhabitants to dust. Good luck Alberta.

Which ones?
 
Tecumsehsbones
+1
#28
Quote: Originally Posted by EagleSmack View Post

Which ones?

Dorkbeaver's still upset over what we did to his beloved Nazi Germany.
 
captain morgan
+1
#29
Quote: Originally Posted by B00Mer View Post

Big enough story for the National Post to run it..

Why leaving Canada makes sense for Alberta, and U.S. would likely welcome a new state | National Post

Who says that AB would have to join anyone?.. No reason that an economic separation could occur and be an independent entity
 
EagleSmack
#30
Quote: Originally Posted by Tecumsehsbones View Post

Dorkbeaver's still upset over what we did to his beloved Nazi Germany.

Oh yeah. It's been awhile since I've heard him praise the Third Reich.
 

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