OTTAWA — A new poll suggests support for Justin Trudeau, his government and his party sank to a new low this month, just six months before Canadians will decide whether to re-elect the Liberals or give them the boot after just one term.
But it also provides a glimmer of hope for the beleaguered prime minister, suggesting that support for Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives is soft and could yet dwindle as the Oct. 21 election draws closer.
And it suggests the Liberals could rebound if the election plays out as a polarized choice between them and the Tories, squeezing out the NDP and Green party.
According to the Leger poll, conducted April 18-22 for The Canadian Press, just 27 per cent of respondents said they'd vote for Trudeau's Liberals — 13 points behind Scheer's front-running Conservatives, who, at 40 per cent, were in the range needed to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.
The Tories led in every region except Quebec, where the Liberals enjoyed an eight-point lead with 31 per cent support; the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois were tied at 23 per cent.
Nationally, the NDP had 12 per cent support, one point ahead of the Green party; Maxime Bernier's fledgling People's Party of Canada registered just three per cent.
Only 30 per cent of respondents said they were very or somewhat satisfied with the Trudeau government while 65 per cent said they were very or somewhat dissatisfied — worrying numbers for the prime minister that were reflected across every region and demographic group.
Moreover, Trudeau was five points behind Scheer on the question of who would make the best prime minister, with 20 per cent to the Conservative leader's 25 per cent.
Still, when asked if Canada would be better off with a Liberal or Conservative government, 30 per cent chose the Liberals and 25 per cent picked the Tories. Fully 45 per cent said they didn't know.
Among respondents who identified as primarily NDP or Green supporters, a Liberal government was preferred by 48 and 42 per cent respectively, compared to just 18 and 23 per cent who preferred a Conservative government.
"That again to me is sort of a yellow light for the Conservatives," said Leger executive vice-president Christian Bourque, adding that Conservative support appears to be "fairly soft."
"Yes, they are in the lead but to what extent that lead is comfortable at this point, I certainly think it's not."
Leger’s internet-based survey cannot be assigned a margin of error because online polls are not considered random samples. It surveyed 1,522 eligible Canadian voters who were recruited from the firm’s online panel. The results were weighted to reflect the makeup of Canada’s population.
Trudeau's popularity has taken a big hit since the SNC-Lavalin affair erupted in early February. He has lost two senior cabinet ministers, his most trusted adviser in principal secretary Gerald Butts, and the country's top public servant since allegations first appeared that former attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould felt improperly pressured by the prime minister's office to halt the criminal prosecution of the Montreal engineering giant.
The latest poll numbers are the lowest Leger has recorded for the Liberals and Trudeau since they took power in 2015.
The poll suggests potentially more trouble for Trudeau is in store following the election of openly hostile conservative governments in provinces across the country, particularly Ontario and Alberta.
Respondents were evenly split overall when asked if their province should be more demanding and contest federal decisions (as 41 per cent said) or do all it can to have an excellent and peaceful working relationship with Ottawa (40 per cent). But a plurality in Ontario and Manitoba-Saskatchewan (which Leger grouped together) and fully 60 per cent in Alberta preferred the more confrontational approach.
Moreover, a plurality or majority of respondents in every region except Ontario said their province doesn't get its fair share from Ottawa. Even in Ontario, opinion was split, with 39 per cent saying the province is treated fairly and 37 per cent saying it's not.
Noting that some provincial conservative leaders, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford and incoming Alberta premier Jason Kenney, won election by campaigning against the Trudeau government, Bourque said: "One more variable that Mr. Trudeau will need to consider in the next federal election is the fact that a lot of regional barons have turned people against Ottawa."
On two other issues that might be factors in the coming election, the poll suggest the Liberals are more on side with public opinion.
While Quebec respondents were strongly in favour of banning civil servants in positions of authority from wearing obvious religious symbols — as the provincial government has already moved to do — a plurality or majority of respondents in every other region were opposed. That could be to Trudeau's advantage: He has made the defence of charter rights and diversity a central pillar of his political appeal.
However, Bourque said the poll suggests the issue is "not all black and white" given that sizable numbers of Canadians outside Quebec also favour banning religious symbols.
Opinion was much more clear cut on the issue of gun control. More than 80 per cent of respondents indicated support for each of three key provisions in the Trudeau government's Bill C-71: requiring gun retailers to keep detailed registries of all gun sales, extending the police background check on a person applying for a gun permit to include his or her entire life and requiring authorization to transport restricted firearms.
And 77 per cent said they were somewhat or strongly in favour of stricter gun control in general while just 17 per cent said they were somewhat or strongly opposed.
Ah, 99% of the internet is either or
What they don't want is
Happy people don't NEED to spend money.
...Just remember: Happiness can't buy debt based currency.
The pole I would like to see U.N.trudie go down on at this point is the Vlad pole.
LILLEY: New poll puts Greens high, Conservatives in-line for win
June 9, 2019
June 9, 2019 5:00 PM EDT
Green Party leader Elizabeth MayErnest Doroszuk / Toronto Sun
A growing threat to Justin Trudeau’s re-election may come from a source few would have considered just a few months ago.
The latest poll from Campaign Research shows support for Elizabeth May and the Green Party on the rise, helping split the progressive vote three ways.
Nationally, the poll puts the Conservatives in the lead with 35% support, the Liberals at 32%, NDP at 14% and Greens at 12%
While May is still a long way from becoming PM, her party’s change in fortunes is coming at the expense of the NDP and Liberals.
As recently as February the Greens were polling at just 7%.
Maybe this is due to the Greens winning a recent by-election in British Columbia, doubling their number of seats to two!
Or it could be a spin-off from the May 5 provincial ballot in P.E.I. where the Greens threatened to form government.
While this is certainly great news for May, I wouldn’t be popping the carbon-neutral champagne just yet.
The poll shows that while the Greens are up, their vote — like those of the Liberals and NDP — could be fluid.
Asking voters for each party if their decision was locked-in, those supporting both the Greens and NDP were most interested in switching.
Just seven per cent said they were committed to either NDP or Green, and would not consider another party.
The news wasn’t much better for Trudeau’s Liberals.
Just 17% of voters say that Team Trudeau is the only vote they would consider, meaning as many as half of those backing the Liberals are open to switching.
For the Conservatives, one quarter of voters say the blue team is their only option, showing that they have the most dedicated voters at this time.
In news that may shock the chattering classes who still think Trudeau is a shoo-in for re-election, the Conservatives have the ability to reach the greatest number of voters at this time.
When asked which parties respondents would consider voting for, the Conservatives caught the eye of 41% while the the Liberals were hot on their heels at 40%.
Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer are tied in voter approval, with 32% saying the two main leaders are doing a good job — but Elizabeth May trumps them both with a 35% approval rating.
Thankfully the bar is low for May.
She’ll never become PM and doesn’t have to worry about what she would do to the country.
Despite her high approval rating, just 9% think she would make the best PM — which sadly for the NDP is still two points above leader Jagmeet Singh, who has only convinced 7% of respondents that should lead the country.
Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives remain in the lead nationally, and in many right-leaning regions of the country to even win a majority government.
That said, these latest numbers show the Conservatives and Liberals in a tight race for Ontario.
Part of that is surely the spillover effect from the Ontario budget handed down by Doug Ford’s PC government — the controversy of which has dominated the news for weeks and eroded Scheer’s support in the process.
The best thing the Conservatives can hope for is that the Greens remain high, the progressive vote remains split and Trudeau doesn’t find his path back to Sunny Ways.
Follow up to Petro's post yesterday
Liberals, Trudeau hit new low but poll suggests surging Tory support is soft
Latest polls and projections
Updated on June 18, 2019 at 10:24am ET
Probability of winning
32% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority
33% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
21% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
15% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
I would say Bombardier and Air Canada has got the most wouldn't you?
Bigger!,!!!!!,!!!!!!!!!!!,!!!!!,!font?.?.????.?.?. ?.?.?..?.?..?.?.more,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,credulity !,!!!!!!!!!!,!!!,!!!!!!!
Unfortunately, one cannot rely on polls as I believe that (some) people lie about who they vote for when asked as they feel it's no ones business. That likely is what happened in 2016 in the US. Would you tell a pollster who you were voting for? I don't know that I would - maybe, maybe not. I've never been asked and I would have to think about it before I did.
LILLEY: Trudeau pops in latest poll but bottom could be falling out
July 2, 2019
July 2, 2019 5:00 AM EDT
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves while walking to a news conference about the government's decision on the Trans Mountain Expansion Project in Ottawa, June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Wattie
You could call it the Ford Factor, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are back in the lead in vote-rich Ontario and the provincial government led by Doug Ford is part of the reason why.
The latest numbers from the DART/MARU Voice of Canada poll surveyed 1,512 adult Canadians on June 26 as part of Maru’s online panel. The numbers show a federal race that is up for grabs with Ontario being the big prize.
Yet despite improved numbers in the most populous province in the country, Trudeau and his Liberals suffer from poor numbers elsewhere, specifically on whether Canadians think he and his government deserve to be re-elected.
That is a key figure.
So, nationally the Conservatives sit at 37% support which is up three points from a poll on June 6. Trudeau’s Liberals have 32% nationally, up eight points while Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is at 17% support, up four points from earlier this month.
Most of Trudeau’s bounce upwards has come in Ontario where his party now leads the Conservatives 40% to 34%.
Pollster John Wright links the drop in support for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives in Ontario, and Trudeau’s rise, to what he calls “a withering ad blitz” aimed at the region that tries to link Ford and Scheer.
The ads, some of which go way over the top in their false claims about Scheer and Ford, have been running non-stop in the Toronto area on radio and TV.
“The gateway to either a minority or majority government likely rests in a band of
voters that sits like a donut around the Greater Toronto Area known well as the ‘905’ area
code,” Wright said.
“This group of voters has shown no firm allegiance to any party, oscillating between the
Liberals and the Conservatives both federally and provincially.”
That doesn’t mean that Trudeau and his team can start popping bottles of Niagara sparkling wine any time soon.
Beyond the fact that the election day is still months away — on Oct. 21 — and that campaigns matter, Trudeau faces the problem of a lack of voter enthusiasm.
Across the country, just 24% agreed with the statement that “the Liberals under Justin Trudeau have done a good job and deserve to be re-elected.”
Even in Ontario, where 40% say they would cast a ballot for the Liberals, just 29% say Trudeau and his team deserve re-election.
According to Wright, who has more than 30 years experience in polling, the “deserve to be re-elected” question is one of the most important and predictive.
“Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne was showing 28% of the decided vote but 19% with the same deserve to be re-elected question six months before she got exactly 19% at the ballot box,” Wright said.
The Liberals won 80 seats last time out. Unless things change, they will lose several of those seats, perhaps many.
In the rest of the country, things don’t look good for Trudeau.
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are set to give most of their seats to the Conservatives. In Alberta, 66% say they will vote Tory Blue, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba it is 50%.
British Columbia has the Conservatives leading the Liberals 37% to 34% which means the Liberals would lose some seats they gained in 2015. The two main parties are effectively tied in Quebec with the Liberals at 30% and Conservatives at 29%. If that holds until election day, that means big losses for Trudeau and big gains for Scheer.
The only place Liberals still hold a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada but the party is unlikely to take every seat like they did last time.
LILLEY: Best-selling author turns Twitter troll against politician’s kid
LILLEY: Carbon tax ruled constitutional in split and muddied decision
LILLEY: Trudeau plays politics with terrorism again
After the 2015 election, I stated boldly that Trudeau would get two terms as PM. Now, that is looking unlikely.
I wouldn’t write him or the Liberals off at this point but the diagnosis isn’t good.
The survey was conducted with randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of MARU/Blue’s Online panel and considered accurate to within 2.9%.