Stimulus added 1.2 million-2.8 million jobs in 1Q


Icarus27k
Democrat
#1
It's true. Just in one single quarter. You remember the stimulus package, AKA the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. It was one of the first bills that Obama signed into law back in Feb. 2009.

Throughout most of calendar year 2009, the act produced primarily tax cuts, while most government spending was scheduled to begin in earnest at the start of FY 2010 (Oct. 2009). We're right now seeing the impact of that spending that began back in October.

Not only were there between 1.2 million and 2.8 million more jobs in 1Q 2010 than there would've been without the stimulus, but the U3 unemployment rate is between 0.7% and 1.5% lower in 1Q than if there were no stimulus.

Also GDP for the quarter is between 1.7 percent and 4.2 percent higher in Q1 than without the stimulus.


Source: Director's Blog Blog Archive Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output
 
EagleSmack
#2
So what is the unemployment rate at now? 9.7% still? I have not checked recently.

And you do realize that the big bump was temp census workers and temps in general.

Government created jobs is not real growth. The rest of us are paying for them.
 
The Old Medic
Conservative
#3
"Estimated Benefit"

You can "estimate" anything, that does not make it so. It turns out that over 50% of the jobs created have been with the Census, temporary jobs that last from 3-6 months.

And please, do a simple calculation and post it here. Divide 1.8 trillion dollars by 1.2 million jobs. Tell us just how much money has been spent for each of those jobs.
 
petros
#4
Pffffffb 1.3 million of those jobs are for the census and the rest seasonal agriculture.
 
EagleSmack
#5
Quote: Originally Posted by petros View Post

Pffffffb 1.3 million of those jobs are for the census and the rest seasonal agriculture.

Exactly Petros. Although we disagree on most things and will do so in the future you brought this to the forum's attention about a month ago and I checked. You were 100% correct. The only difference was the temp jobs were not just agricultural seasonal temps but temp work in general.
 
Icarus27k
Democrat
#6
People. The CBO numbers from the OP have absolutely noting to do with the 2010 census. The numbers from the stimulus package would still be the same with or without the census.

The 1.2 million-2.8 million is NOT how many jobs total that were added in the US. Rather, it's how many this one particular law (the ARRA) has created.
 
EagleSmack
#7
Quote: Originally Posted by Icarus27k View Post

People. The CBO numbers from the OP have absolutely noting to do with the 2010 census. The numbers from the stimulus package would still be the same with or without the census.

The 1.2 million-2.8 million is NOT how many jobs total that were added in the US. Rather, it's how many this one particular law (the ARRA) has created.

Unemployment has jumped to 9.9% in April.

What are you having difficulty understanding?
 
Icarus27k
Democrat
#8
Why are you changing the subject? CBO says the stimulus bill is responsible for there being between 1.2 million and 2.8 million more jobs in a single quarter than if the stimulus was never passed.

And, as I pointed out in the OP, without the stimulus, the U3 unemployment figure, which you are talking about, would be between 0.7% and 1.5% higher.

Both major successes.
 
ironsides
No Party Affiliation
#9
Stimulus bill has added very few new jobs, we have lost far more than it produced.



May 9 2010
The current unemployment rate has doubled since the recession began in December 2007. It will probably stay between 9.5% - 10% through 2010, even though the recession is over. That's because employers resist hiring new workers until they are absolutely sure the economy will stay strong. For this reason, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator . Although it is not good for predicting trends, it is useful for confirming trends.
The current unemployment rate is reported monthly in the Employment Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics . Here is a history of the current unemployment rate statistics for every month since March 2007.

2010 Unemployment Statistics

April : The unemployment rate rose to 9.9%, partly because 195,000 workers returned to the labor force.
March : Unemployment remains at 9.7% - although 1 million discouraged workers are no longer counted among the unemployed.
Current Unemployment Rate Statistics - A History of Current US Unemployment Rate Statistics
 
petros
#10
Quote: Originally Posted by EagleSmack View Post

Exactly Petros. Although we disagree on most things and will do so in the future you brought this to the forum's attention about a month ago and I checked. You were 100% correct. The only difference was the temp jobs were not just agricultural seasonal temps but temp work in general.

I'm right about a lot of stuff but few will admit it. Thanks. Did you hear me warn about food prices last fall? Take a look at the increase over the past year. Some items have doubled while the majority are up 20 - 30%.

If you really want to beat the heavy price increases inflation has caused, invest in the Chicago markets because food is the oldest weapon on the planet and we are at war and it's not with the boogieman in the Himalayas.

Quote: Originally Posted by Icarus27k View Post

Why are you changing the subject? CBO says the stimulus bill is responsible for there being between 1.2 million and 2.8 million more jobs in a single quarter than if the stimulus was never passed.

And, as I pointed out in the OP, without the stimulus, the U3 unemployment figure, which you are talking about, would be between 0.7% and 1.5% higher.

Both major successes.

So now that all the Mexicans are being punted or jailed and Mexican Americans are now picking strawberries and radishes and ON THE BOOKS there will indeed be what only appears to be extra jobs created when in reality it is only cracking down on ILLEGAL EMPLOYERS and has everything to do with the price of rice in China and radishes in Madison Wisc.

Watch and learn what a desperate gov will do (like blame foreigners) to cover the fact it's screwed and you are going to pay dearly.

Illegal labour and massive farm subsidy's to grow corn is America's dirty little secret and the root of your disposable income for you whole life.

In the 50's 60% of your income went to food. Food went mechanical in 50's and petrochemical then imports in the 60's and heavily subsidized in the 70's and ever since dropping prices to 20% of gross domestic income for the consumer and just barely keeping food on the table of the farmer.

Those days are over!

Now there is this to consider. All the nations we' ve beaten up for their oil have wised up and are are beating us up by not exporting their fruits, veg, nuts, grains, coffee, tea and sugar canes and the true American dark overlord the cocoa bean..
Last edited by petros; May 28th, 2010 at 03:00 AM..
 
Icarus27k
Democrat
#11
Quote: Originally Posted by ironsides View Post

Stimulus bill has added very few new jobs, we have lost far more than it produced.



May 9 2010
The current unemployment rate has doubled since the recession began in December 2007. It will probably stay between 9.5% - 10% through 2010, even though the recession is over. That's because employers resist hiring new workers until they are absolutely sure the economy will stay strong. For this reason, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator . Although it is not good for predicting trends, it is useful for confirming trends.
The current unemployment rate is reported monthly in the Employment Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics . Here is a history of the current unemployment rate statistics for every month since March 2007.

2010 Unemployment Statistics

April : The unemployment rate rose to 9.9%, partly because 195,000 workers returned to the labor force.
March : Unemployment remains at 9.7% - although 1 million discouraged workers are no longer counted among the unemployed.
Current Unemployment Rate Statistics - A History of Current US Unemployment Rate Statistics

I'll continue to go with the CBO on the 1.2 million to 2.8 million more jobs because of the stimulus package. Again, a major success and close to what was promised about the stimulus when it was passed.

Also, your post is a little schizophrenic. The link you posted to says nothing about what you typed just before it.

Quote: Originally Posted by ironsides View Post

The unemployment rate rose to 9.9%, partly because 195,000 workers returned to the labor force.

If we must talk about the U3 unemployment rate more generally, this right here disproves EagleSmack's earlier point about the rise in the April U3 being significant when compared to how much the stimulus has kept the U3 low. The April rise was caused by discouraged workers re-entering the labor force, which in itself is a positive development.

For the more proper perspective, here is CBO estimates for past quarters for how many jobs exist because of the stimulus.

2Q 2009: 300,000 to 800,000
3Q 2009: 600,000 to 1,600,000
4Q 2009: 800,000 to 2,400,000
1Q 2010: 1,200,000 to 2,800,000


So, going by the lowest points there ...

300,000 + 600,000 + 800,000 + 1,200,000 = 2,900,000
 
EagleSmack
#12
Quote: Originally Posted by Icarus27k View Post

Why are you changing the subject? CBO says the stimulus bill is responsible for there being between 1.2 million and 2.8 million more jobs in a single quarter than if the stimulus was never passed.

And, as I pointed out in the OP, without the stimulus, the U3 unemployment figure, which you are talking about, would be between 0.7% and 1.5% higher.

Both major successes.

Who's changing the subject? Your OP says things are great...look at all the new jobs.

I am looking at the delta...unemployment is up from the last few months.

Look at it this way... you as an employee of a company says...

"The sales department just added 10 new jobs! What is everyone so glum about?"

"Because the shipping department layed off 3 people...management laid off 5... the IT department laid off 12... and facilities laid of another 4...that's why."

"Yeah but the sales department hired 10!"
 
petros
#13
What about quality of jobs? Do these alleged created jobs really help?
 
EagleSmack
#14
Quote: Originally Posted by petros View Post

What about quality of jobs? Do these alleged created jobs really help?

Temporarily...yes.
 
gopher
No Party Affiliation
#15
Unemployment rate went up because people decided to go back to looking for work.
 
EagleSmack
#16
Quote: Originally Posted by gopher View Post

Unemployment rate went up because people decided to go back to looking for work.

Gopher... I have one thing to say about your post...

BWAHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHBWAHAHAHAHAAH

...and one emotican to add

 
gopher
No Party Affiliation
#17
you seem to be the only one laughing:

"some people who went back to school are out again looking for work. It could mean a surge of new residents in metro Atlanta. It could also be a modest signal that workers who had been discouraged now believe that hiring has picked up and have rejoined the hunt.
“When people perceive the economy getting better, they do come back,” said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University.
Andy Decker, regional vice president for Robert Half International in Atlanta, a staffing company, said he's noticed a greater flow of applicants.
“I’ve seen people who have been out of work for more than 12 months, people who have not been actively looking who are looking again," Decker said. "And we are seeing an increase in the number of companies bringing people on.”

http://www.ajc.com/business/jobless-...as-361314.html
 

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